Skip to content

Kentucky Derby Preview: Justify the overwhelming choice in deep field

Eclipse Sportswire / Getty Images Sport / Getty

How to Watch
When
: Saturday, May 5 at 6:46 p.m. (Race Time)
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky.
TV: U.S.: NBC, coverage begins at 2:30 p.m. ET
Canada: TSN, coverage starts at 4 p.m. ET

The best three words to describe Saturday’s 144th running of the Kentucky Derby: deep and complex.

Experts say this is the strongest field assembled for the iconic Run for the Roses in recent memory. Twenty of the world’s fastest 3-year-olds will line up, with the undefeated Justify as the 3-1 morning-line favorite. There is the potential of rain in the forecast, but not enough to significantly impact track conditions.

Hot on Justify’s heels will be Magnum Moon, who is also putting his perfect race record on the line Saturday; the Kentucky-bred, Irish-trained Mendelssohn will try and deke history by becoming the first European runner to win the race, and an unlucky colt named after eight-time Olympic gold medal sprinter Usain Bolt hopes things will finally go his way under the twin spires at Churchill Downs.

No Horse Trainer Jockey Odds
1 Firenze Fire Jason Servis Paco Lopez 50-1
2 Free Drop Billy Dale Romans Robby Albarado 30-1
3 Promises Fulfilled Dale Romans Corey Lanerie 30-1
4 Flameaway Mark Casse Jose Lezcano 30-1
5 Audible Todd Pletcher Javier Castelanno 8-1
6 Good Magic Chad Brown Jose Ortiz 12-1
7 Justify Bob Baffert Mike Smith 3-1
8 Lone Sailor Tom Amoss James Graham 50-1
9 Hofburg Bill Mott Irad Ortiz Jr 20-1
10 Mu Boy Jack Keith Desormeaux Kent Desormeaux 30-1
11 Bolt d'Oro Mick Ruiz Victor Espinoza 8-1
12 Enticed Kierna McLaughlin Junior Alvarado 30-1
13 Bravazo D. Wayne Lukas Luis Contreras 50-1
14 Mendelssohn Aiden O'Brien Ryan Moore 5-1
15 Instilled Regard Jerry Hollendorfer Drayden Van Dyke 50-1
16 Magnum Moon Todd Pletcher Luis Saez 6-1
17 Solomini Bob Baffert Flavien Prat 30-1
18 Vino Rosso Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 12-1
19 Noble Indy Todd Pletcher Florent Geroux 30-1
20 Combatant Steve Asmussen Ricardo Santana Jr 50-1

What makes the Derby such an intriguing race is that none of the contenders will have run the 1 1/4-mile distance and none of them have faced a field of 19. Clean trips and a lot of luck is key for every runner whether its Justify or one of the five 50-1 shots.

Justify’s lack of seasoning could be his Achilles heel. His trainer, Bob Baffert, has said the key to his colt winning is the break. If he fails to fire out of the gate, then he could be jostled back and be forced to run behind horses, a situation he’s never been in his three starts. Justify will break from post 7, which should give Mike Smith an opportunity to put the big chestnut in the race right from the jump. Baffert’s other runner, Solomini, drew post 17, and will have to gun from the get-go or risk getting lost in the shuffle as the field turns for home.

Trainer Todd Pletcher is loaded for bear with four strong contenders. But unfortunately, three of his horses drew outside post positions which could significantly hamper their chances. Starting from a "wide" post means those horses have to cover significantly more ground then horses who start closer to the inside rail. In addition to Magnum Moon, who will run from the 16 hole, there’s Florida Derby winner, Audible, Wood Memorial winner Vino Rosso, and Noble Indy. Vino Rosso and Noble Indy will start from post positions 18 and 19, respectively. Audible drew slot 5, which not only has produced the most winners in the race’s history (10) it was also the post position of Always Dreaming, who won last year’s Derby. Always Dreaming’s trainer? Todd Pletcher.

If you’re looking for an underdog or comeback story in this year’s rendition of the Run for the Roses, you’ll be hard-pressed to find one. Most of the contenders come from blue-blood pedigrees and are owned and trained by powerhouse stables. Only one trainer has never saddled a horse in the Derby before, and that’s Mick Ruis. Ruis, a self-made millionaire, owns and trains Bolt d’Oro, a colt with a lot of upside. Before Ruis arrived at Louisville this year with a contender, he endured his own rags-to-riches story after losing all his life savings he made operating a scaffolding company in his first attempt at the horse racing business. Ruis has made his way back to the track, and now, to his first Derby. And just how confident is Ruis about his colt? He’s brought a suitcase stuffed with cash to bet on him.

(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)

Daily Newsletter

Get the latest trending sports news daily in your inbox