Betting tips for the NFL conference championships

Need some help spotting situational edges with the NFL's second-last round of playoff action fast approaching? We've got you covered.

Here are five tips as you do your homework for the conference championships.

Patriots' offense humming in postseason

The weekend's main theme will center around Tom Brady catching points when his New England Patriots take on the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. It'll be the first time in 67 games that Brady closes as an underdog and just the seventh time in his postseason career. But perhaps the more interesting tidbit is the total, which the Patriots have been sailing over left and right. With last weekend's 41-28 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, New England is now 10-2 to the over in its last 12 postseason contests, including 6-1 in the previous seven. The current total of 56.5 against Kansas City would be the second-highest of Brady's career, right behind the 57.5 versus the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI.

Reid vs. Belichick means big points

Patriots head coach Bill Belichick knows a thing or two about game-planning. The same can be said of Kansas City's Andy Reid, who has had the upper hand against his counterpart in the past. New England has allowed 40 or more points seven times over Belichick's 342 career games, and Reid's Chiefs are responsible for three of those. Patrick Mahomes helped his team put up 40 on the Pats in a three-point loss earlier in the year. The over has hit in each of the previous four Belichick-Reid duels.

Weather shouldn't impact Patriots-Chiefs total

It appears that bettors are either getting too wrapped up in weather forecasts or see a significant error in the New England-Kansas City total. The number opened up at 59 on Sunday afternoon and ticked all the way up to 59.5 in some spots. Early-week weather reports forecasted that Arrowhead Stadium will endure single-digit temperatures, which likely correlated to the total dropping all the way to 55 in some shops. Smart bettors know that wind - not cold temperatures - is the biggest weather factor for totals. Games featuring below-freezing temperatures with no wind entering the 2018 season were actually on a 92-60-1 run to the over, according to the Action Network's Mark Gallant.

Bettors keeping faith in Saints' offense

With a 20-14 win over the Philadelphia Eagles in the divisional round, the New Orleans Saints snapped a six-game home playoff run of eclipsing the total. Early bettors are going back to the well as the Saints prepare to host the Los Angeles Rams - the Westgate SuperBook opened the total at 56.5 and saw early money placed on the over, pushing the total to 57, where it currently sits in most places. The Saints also attracted early money as three-point favorites, which pushed the spread to -3.5 before bettors came back in on the Rams getting the hook. Prior to the regular-season matchup, the Rams-Saints total saw a drop from 60 to 57.5, only to see the two teams combine for 80 points.

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.