NFL Week 9 action report: Sharps buying Ravens over Pats
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The NFL season enters Week 9 with some big matchups on the slate. Where is the sharp money going? Which lines are moving the most? Here, we'll track the games drawing the most interest from bettors.
We talked to Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, to see how sharps and public bettors are playing the Week 9 schedule.
All lines courtesy of theScore Bet.
New England Patriots (-3, 45) at Baltimore Ravens
The undefeated Patriots traveling to Baltimore to face Lamar Jackson and the AFC North-leading Ravens for the first time since 2016 on Sunday night is the shining beacon of Week 9.
The line opened at Patriots -4, but sharps have been all over the Ravens this week, taking them at +4, +3.5, and +3. The line bounced between the latter two numbers on Friday and Saturday, though it'll likely stay around 3 ahead of kickoff thanks to a steady stream of public money on New England.
"Most of what we would consider sharps are on Ravens +4, +3.5," Rood said. "But ticket count is almost double to the Patriots."
The average bet on the Ravens is roughly double the amount on the Patriots, Rood says, but the game is pacing nearly even in total money wagered heading into Sunday. New England is 6-2 against the spread this year, while Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh is 8-3 ATS and 9-2 straight up coming off a bye.
Green Bay Packers (-4, 48.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Though not quite as high profile as Pats-Ravens, the Sunday afternoon clash between the public-favorite Packers and the woeful Chargers is drawing plenty of attention from bettors. And everybody is on the Packers.
"I think the two-team teaser that everyone is gonna be all over is the Packers and Patriots," Rood said.
As of late Friday, Green Bay held a 5-1 advantage in money and 12-1 advantage in ticket count, helping to push the line from an opening -3 to -4. The parlay and teaser activity is almost exclusively on the Packers, too, meaning the line could climb even higher before kickoff.
Aaron Rodgers is 18-11 ATS when giving at least 3.5 points, while the Chargers have dropped seven of their last eight as home 'dogs.
"This is gonna be a really critical key game for us for Sunday afternoon," Rood said.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-5, 51.5)
It isn't earning the same volume as the other two, but this game has drawn some sharp attention on the visiting Buccaneers as modest underdogs in Seattle, where the Seahawks have dropped four straight as favorites.
Tampa Bay opened at +6 and went to +6.5 before bettors took them all the way down to +5, where the line sits as of Saturday afternoon. This game hasn't seen much public money throughout the week, but the parlay activity leans 7-1 toward the Seahawks, meaning the flood of Seattle money could be incoming.
"We've got some early liability on the Buccaneers," Rood said, "but we're going to need them going into this game."
Indianapolis Colts (-1, 40.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
One of the other biggest public decisions lies in Pittsburgh, where the 5-2 Colts are laying just one point against the 3-4 Steelers. That's short enough to draw the public away from the home 'dogs in teasers and parlays.
The ticket count to the Colts was just over 6-to-1 in parlays as of late Friday, Rood said, even with little activity on the straight bet side. That usually levels out as the week goes on, meaning the public could be eyeing Indy as short road chalk.
"That's gonna be one of our key morning games as it stands right now," Rood adds.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.