Wednesday MLB home run props: All hail Lourdes Gurriel
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We saw 28 home runs Tuesday, and that number figures to increase dramatically in MLB's busiest day of the season thus far with 16 games scheduled as a result of doubleheaders.
Here are Wednesday's best bets to go yard.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Blue Jays (+1000)
The price on Gurriel to homer tonight is an absolute gift. The second baseman led all Toronto Blue Jays in home runs against lefties last season despite being 10th on the team in at-bats against southpaws. He slashed .300/.330/.664 versus left-handers with a home run every 10 at-bats.
He will feast on Atlanta Braves starter Sean Newcomb, who's predictably being hit hard by regression. His 3.16 ERA last season masked a 4.61 xFIP. In two starts this season, his 7.04 FIP backs up an 8.22 ERA, while his struggles are perfectly captured by a disappointing 5.87 K/9 rate and inflated 2.35 HR/9 rate.
Nick Castellanos, Reds (+550)
No one is swinging a hotter bat than Castellanos, who's gone deep six times in his last seven games after failing to hit a home run in his first four outings. The Cincinnati Reds slugger is second in MLB in barrels per batted-ball event (28.6%) and barrels per plate appearance (18.6%), and he's got a terrific hard-hit percentage of 57.1% to go with an average launch angle of 20.5 degrees. When you hit that many fly balls that hard, you're going to put a lot of souvenirs in the stands.
That's exactly what he's done of late, and he leads MLB in slugging and is tied for the lead in home runs as a result. He doesn't have great career numbers against Cleveland Indians starter Mike Clevinger, who takes the mound against the Reds tonight, but sometimes you need to ride the hot bat. At the same time, we're fading a struggling arm, as Clevinger is clearly working through some stuff. He's struggled to keep the ball in the yard this season, allowing four home runs in 11 innings.
Alex Bregman, Astros (+370)
Bregman hasn't enjoyed the best start to the season, but he's picked up where he left off against left-handed pitching. Overall, he's managed just a .209 average and .395 slugging percentage in 2020, but he's hit .333 and slugged .500 against lefties. In 2019, he raked against southpaws, slashing .350/.443/.742 against them with 16 home runs.
That doesn't bode well for Arizona Diamondbacks starter Robbie Ray, who's known to struggle to keep the ball in the yard. He posted the eighth-highest HR/9 rate last season (1.55) among qualified pitchers, and through two starts in 2020, he's allowed three long balls in 8 1/3 innings for an abysmal 3.24 HR/9 rate.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.