Thursday MLB home run props: A slump-buster for Gleyber
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It's a quiet night in MLB, with just seven games scheduled on the Thursday evening slate.
We may have fewer options to choose from, but there are still a pair of strong bets to go yard.
Gleyber Torres, Yankees (+310)
Torres isn't seeing the ball very well right now. He's in an 0-for-16 slump and hitting just .147 on the season while slugging a feeble .235. He has just one extra-base hit - a home run in the season-opening series against the Washington Nationals. But every slump comes to an end, and I'm backing Torres to break out tonight.
The New York Yankees go up against Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Zach Eflin, who's making his season debut. The 26-year-old was plagued by the long ball in 2019, surrendering the ninth-highest HR/9 rate (1.54) among qualified pitchers. That's bad news against a Yankees lineup that feasts on the long ball.
Torres led all Yankees batters in home runs off right-handed pitching last season with 29, while only Brett Gardner and Gary Sanchez had higher slugging percentages against righties.
Jesus Aguilar, Marlins (+450)
Eflin looks like Jacob deGrom compared to Baltimore Orioles left-hander Wade LeBlanc, who gets victimized whenever he takes the mound. LeBlanc surrendered the highest HR/9 rate (2.08) among pitchers who threw at least 120 innings in 2019. He gave up a home run every 4 1/3 innings, and he's picked up where he left off last season by giving up three home runs in just 11 frames.
LeBlanc now gets a Miami Marlins team that's swinging the bat well, with Aguilar enjoying a strong start to the year after a down 2019. The first baseman has hit three home runs through six games this season and is so far looking closer to his 2018 form, where he smashed 35 homers. Aguilar tends to find good success against lefties, as he posted a .550 slugging percentage against them in his breakout 2018 campaign.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.