NBA Monday best bets, player props: Raptors, Bucks in for track meet
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Monday's NBA slate features plenty of star-studded matchups, including a rematch of last year's Eastern Conference finals between the Raptors and Bucks.
That's where we'll start today's preview. Here's everything you need to know from a betting perspective.
Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks (-5.5, 226.5)
Toronto's defense has been terrific in the bubble, allowing fewer than 100 points in three of the team's first five games back. But the unit faces arguably its toughest test of the restart against the league's top-ranked scoring offense in Milwaukee (118.4 PPG).
The Bucks and Raptors have played each other twice this season, though both contests now feel like they were forever ago. Milwaukee and the under cashed in both meetings. Can we expect the same trend Monday?
The Bucks are No. 1 in the NBA in pace and No. 3 in field goals attempted per game. They put up 89 shots from the floor in their first meeting against the Raptors, then 91 in the second. Though they averaged 111.5 points per game in those two meetings, the Bucks shot roughly 38% combined - a huge decline from their current 47.8% clip.
What sort of point total should we expect if Milwaukee's offense gets going - especially in a bubble that's seen a huge uptick in scoring?
The Raptors' offense, meanwhile, only has one way to go against the Bucks: up. Milwaukee held Toronto to a dismal 35% clip from the floor in their first tilt, then roughly 40% in the second. Those are extremely unconventional marks for the reigning champs.
Raptors head coach Nick Nurse cracked the Bucks' code during last year's postseason; he'll certainly have some magic up his sleeve to get the offense clicking here. Expect a track meet with a boatload of points.
Pick: Over 226.5
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-4.5, 221.5)
The Lakers will get back on track to stop a three-game skid. Los Angeles' offense has only averaged 98 points per game over that span, but this is a fantastic matchup for a rebound.
The Nuggets haven't guarded the perimeter in the bubble, ranking last in opponent three-point percentage (45.1%). They're also allowing opposing teams to convert 65.1% of shots at the rim this season, which spells trouble against Anthony Davis and Co.
Fade a Denver squad that's 2-5 against the spread in its last seven as an underdog and 1-5 ATS following outright wins.
Pick: Lakers -4
Props
Lakers-Nuggets top scorer - Anthony Davis +210
Davis is the pick to click for Monday. The Lakers star has managed 17 points or fewer over his last three, but again, this matchup is simply too good to pass up.
Denver is surrendering the fourth-most points in the league to opposing centers this season. Davis already had his way with the Nuggets in these squads' previous two meetings, putting up 33 and then 25 points.
He should enjoy another high point total Monday.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.