In Flight: Bassitt displays his brilliance, Chapman goes cold

This biweekly series will explore some of the biggest storylines surrounding the Toronto Blue Jays' campaign as they chase the franchise's first World Series championship since 1993. This is the fourth edition of "In Flight."

Stock watch 👀

Chris Bassitt 📈

Bassitt has been the most consistent pitcher in the rotation since his rough debut outing in St. Louis. The veteran right-hander has lowered his season ERA down to 3.05 after another gem against the Yankees and is now tied with Roger Clemens and Dave Stieb for the franchise record with three consecutive scoreless starts of at least seven innings.

The 34-year-old also has the third-longest scoreless streak in franchise history at 27 frames.

"As dumb as it is, young me would have lost tonight's game. I would have went in there, overthrown, walked guys, given up hits, and we would have lost tonight's game," Bassitt said following his outing against the Yankees, according to Sportsnet's Shi Davidi. "Being around long enough to not panic and just relax, we've got today's game, and that's it. You can't change the past."

With Alek Manoah struggling to find any semblance of consistency in the first month and a half of the season, Bassitt's success has become a huge necessity for the Blue Jays as they look to stay afloat in the ultra-competitive AL East.

Alek Manoah 📉

Manoah's alarming start to the season continues to be a puzzling development. His mechanics seem to be out of sorts. The AL Cy Young finalist walked a career-high seven batters in a recent start against the Yankees, failing to go beyond the fifth inning for the seventh time in his first nine outings.

The 25-year-old is allowing more hard contact and struggling to get ahead in counts, recording a career-worst 8.8% barrel rate and a swinging-strike rate of just 8.5%.

"That's the game. This game will punch you right in the mouth," Manoah said, according to MLB.com's Keegan Matheson. "My job is to show up every single day and give this team a chance to win. ... Right now, the game is just testing me. You find out who's who when things aren't going well."

Manoah's slider continues to be a major area of concern. After allowing a paltry .218 batting average, .324 slugging percentage, and four home runs with the offering in 2022, opposing hitters are teeing off on the pitch to the tune of a .368 batting average and .737 slugging percentage with four homers.

Manoah rebounded in his most recent turn against the Orioles, but there were still some command issues as he missed the strike zone by a wide margin arm side on a number of occasions.

There are no easy answers for the Blue Jays with Manoah. The club isn't overflowing with alternative options if they want to give him a breather to reset. Toronto desperately needs Manoah to figure out a way to get his season back on track, or its rotation will be in a very difficult position.

Matt Chapman 📉

Following a scintillating April, Chapman has gone cold. The third baseman has hit just one home run since the middle of April and has driven in just two runs so far in May.

After striking out just over 22% of the time in April, Chapman has seen his strikeout rate skyrocket to nearly 33% so far this month. The inability to make contact has reared its head at inopportune times on a handful of occasions, with Chapman unable to deliver clutch hits.

"Him being active every single day, that's not an excuse, but it takes a toll on him," Blue Jays manager John Schneider said, according to Yahoo! Sports' Ethan Diamandas. "So, probably just a clip behind pitches he was hammering a month ago."

Chapman has always been a bit of a streaky offensive player, so it's fair to expect a turnaround soon. The Blue Jays are certainly hoping the 30-year-old heats back up at the plate, as his cold snap is a big reason why the club has been average offensively in May.

Brandon Belt 📈

Belt has really hit his stride in May following a rough start to his first season as a Blue Jay. Although he recorded a .164 batting average and .273 slugging percentage with a staggering 25 strikeouts in 55 April at-bats, the veteran first baseman has posted a hard-hit rate of 48% in May and accumulated 0.6 fWAR after being worth -0.5 in April. He's also cut his strikeout rate.

"I feel like I have (my routine down) now," Belt said, according to Diamandas. "And it gives me a little bit more confidence when I'm up there that I'm not missing anything."

With a number of other key players struggling, the Blue Jays need Belt's improvement at the plate to be sustainable rather than a blip on the radar.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 📉

Guerrero has struggled at the plate in May after a terrific start to the season in April. The slugger is striking out nearly 27% of the time and chasing pitches outside the strike zone 33% of the time with just two home runs so far this month. These issues come on the heels of Guerrero's performance in April when he struck out just 11% of the time with five home runs and a 149 wRC+.

The Blue Jays have struggled to score as a team in May and are 7-12 this month. Guerrero's regression is a big reason the club has been so inconsistent lately. Toronto desperately needs Guerrero to get back on track at the plate if it wants to dig out of the AL East's basement.

Statcast standouts 🚀

Struggles with runners in scoring position

The Blue Jays somehow managed just six hits in 63 at-bats with runners in scoring position over the final six games of the home stand for a .095 batting average, according to Mike Wilner of the Toronto Star.

Time and time again, Blue Jays hitters failed to come up with a key hit in a big moment, allowing the Yankees and Orioles to hang around before they ultimately delivered a big hit to pull away and secure the win.

Success or failure with runners in scoring position can often be tied to how a lineup is producing as a whole. Right now, Toronto is struggling to string together positive momentum at the plate. Until that changes, it's hard to expect these terrible numbers in key spots to improve much.

Jose Berrios' ground-ball rate

Berrios has righted the ship after a rocky start in Kansas City, resembling the pitcher the Blue Jays envisioned when they handed him a seven-year, $131-million contract extension ahead of the 2022 season.

One of the biggest reasons for Berrios' recent success has been his ability to limit hard contact while keeping the ball on the ground. The right-hander currently sports the highest ground-ball rate of his career at an impressive 48.1%. Berrios is also permitting the lowest hard-hit rate of his career at just under 28%. That combination has allowed him to pitch deeper into games, with Berrios going at least six innings in four of his past six outings. The 28-year-old has also done an excellent job limiting free passes, permitting just 2.05 walks per nine innings, the lowest mark of his eight-year career.

You could make the case Berrios deserves better than his 4.61 ERA due to his 3.60 FIP over nine starts. With Manoah struggling to find his footing, the Blue Jays are counting on Berrios to continue giving them a chance to win every fifth day.

Daulton Varsho's issues against elevated fastballs

The Blue Jays acquired Varsho hoping he'd provide excellent defensive play and strong power numbers. Half of that equation has come to fruition so far as Varsho sits in the 86th percentile in outs above average and is tied for second among all outfielders with nine defensive runs saved.

Varsho's offensive contributions have been more of a concern so far. He's delivered quality production over a few solid stretches, but he's also had too many struggles for the Blue Jays' liking. The biggest issue the 26-year-old has had so far is making contact on fastballs up in the strike zone.

Overall, Varsho is hitting just .211 with three home runs and a .358 slugging percentage against fastballs so far this season. He's struggled to catch up as pitchers are consistently elevating heaters on the inner half of the strike zone, slugging just .158 on those offerings. With Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno both providing the Arizona Diamondbacks with strong offensive production thus far, Toronto desperately needs Varsho to find his stride at the plate.

Best moments 🤩

Jansen plays hero twice

Danny Jansen has struggled to find consistency at the plate after a breakout campaign in 2022, as he's hitting under the Mendoza line with less extra-base pop than last season. However, he delivered two clutch moments within four days of each other during Toronto's most recent homestand.

With the Blue Jays trailing the Braves by one run in the ninth inning, Jansen stepped up to the plate with the bases loaded against Atlanta closer Raisel Iglesias. Jansen proceeded to pull his hands in and ground the ball into left field for a game-winning two-run single to help the Blue Jays complete a three-game sweep of one of baseball's best teams.

Then, with Toronto desperately needing a win after dropping the first two games against the Yankees, Jansen delivered an emphatic walk-off three-run home run.

Lukes records 1st MLB hit

It's been a long and winding road in professional baseball for Nathan Lukes. The 2015 seventh-round pick finally made his MLB debut this year after eight seasons and 632 games in the minor leagues, and he had to wait even longer to record a hit.

But after primarily being used as a late-inning defensive replacement or pinch runner, the 28-year-old Lukes took full advantage of his start in the Blue Jays' series finale against the Orioles. He looped a fourth-inning single to center field off Orioles right-hander Dean Kremer, securing his first big-league knock.

The week ahead

After a bitterly disappointing 1-6 record against the Yankees and Orioles, the Blue Jays continue a difficult stretch with a four-game trip at the always-challenging Tropicana Field to take on the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays. Following that, Toronto heads to Target Field for a three-game weekend set against the Minnesota Twins.