NFL betting: Win total matchups to consider for 2019
The win total matchup market comes in handy when you enter the season with strong opinions about multiple teams. Standard win totals involve picking either over or under the projected number listed, while matchups are more similar to spreads, but we're using team wins - not points - in this case.
Here is a list of win total matchups for the 2019 NFL season. The price on the left correlates with the favorite and the right represents the underdog.
| Matchup | Odds |
|---|---|
| Browns -3 vs. Bengals | -110 / -110 |
| Colts -1.5 vs. Ravens | -120 / +100 |
| Cowboys -0.5 vs. 49ers | -125 / +105 |
| Eagles -1 vs. Cowboys | -110 / -110 |
| Steelers -0.5 vs. Cowboys | +110 / -130 |
| Eagles -3.5 vs. Redskins | -125 / +105 |
| Falcons -1.5 vs. Panthers | +100 / -120 |
| Cowboys -3 vs. Giants | -110 / -110 |
| Eagles -4 vs. Giants | -110 / -110 |
| Packers vs. Bears (Pick 'em) | -110 / -110 |
| Packers -2.5 vs. Lions | -110 / -110 |
| Patriots -1.5 vs. Colts | +110 / -130 |
| Patriots -4 vs. Jets | +105 / -125 |
| Chiefs -3.5 vs. Raiders | -110 / -110 |
| Seahawks -0.5 vs. 49ers | -110 / -110 |
| Steelers -3 vs Bengals | +105 / -125 |
| Steelers -2.5 vs. Raiders | -110 / -110 |
| Steelers -0.5 vs. Ravens | -125 / +105 |
Where to start
Power rankings are a typically referenced tool, but they're subjective. If there's any sort of objective launching pad to help find teams to fade or tail this season, Pythagorean wins may be it. We can use it to see which teams were lucky or unlucky in 2018, and which might be trending up or down. Using RotoViz' formulas, here are the clubs that over- and under-performed last year by at least one win in either direction:
Luckiest teams
| Team | 2018 Wins | Expected Wins | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 7 | 4.55 | +2.45 |
| Redskins | 7 | 5.29 | +1.71 |
| Bills | 6 | 4.46 | +1.54 |
| Cowboys | 10 | 8.53 | +1.47 |
| Rams | 13 | 11.73 | +1.27 |
Unluckiest teams
| Team | 2018 Wins | Expected Wins | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 5 | 6.67 | -1.67 |
| Ravens | 10 | 11.34 | -1.34 |
| Broncos | 6 | 7.31 | -1.31 |
| 49ers | 4 | 5.19 | -1.19 |
| Buccaneers | 5 | 6.05 | -1.05 |
There's one matchup that immediately sticks out based on these metrics:
49ers +0.5 vs. Cowboys (+105)
Both the 49ers and Cowboys are in the top half of the league in terms of the toughest schedules for 2019, coming in at No. 10 and 14, respectively. Last year was supposed to be a big step forward for the Niners with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo leading the offense for his first full campaign. But that hope was lost when he suffered a season-ending knee injury in just his third game. San Francisco is a risky team to back this year, but the 49ers have a high ceiling and could be the most improved club in the NFL if they live up to their potential.
Others to consider
Ravens +1.5 vs. Colts (+100)
There were some mixed reviews on Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson's rookie season. Baltimore's defense is undergoing some turnover, but it's still a strong unit and Jackson won't need to be perfect to win games in 2019. Meanwhile, the Colts overachieved on defense last season and got a huge bounce-back year from Andrew Luck. Indianapolis is the new class of the AFC South, but we'd take the 1.5-win cushion with Baltimore in this spot.
Falcons -1.5 vs. Panthers (+100)
The Falcons took a big step back last season and missed the playoffs just two years after nearly winning the Super Bowl. A top-10 offense in 2018 could be even better with Dirk Koetter now leading the show, and the defense should manage to stay healthier than it did last season. We're extremely bullish on Atlanta.
Eagles -1 vs. Cowboys (-110)
Though it's another fade on the Cowboys, consider us hitched to the Eagles bandwagon. Philly has one of the more favorable schedules in the league this season, and though it no longer has Nick Foles should Carson Wentz miss more time, this team should coast to the playoffs if it avoids the injury bug.
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.