Best quarterback prop bets for the 2019 NFL season
This week, we're starting a three-part series covering prop bets revolving around offensive players for the 2019 NFL season. Up first are the quarterbacks, and no one's led the league in both passing yards and touchdowns since Peyton Manning did it in 2013.
Odds to lead NFL in passing yards
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 9-2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 9-2 |
| Andrew Luck | 6-1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 7-1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 7-1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 10-1 |
| Jameis Winston | 15-1 |
| Drew Brees | 16-1 |
| Carson Wentz | 20-1 |
| Philip Rivers | 20-1 |
| Jared Goff | 25-1 |
| Tom Brady | 25-1 |
| Derek Carr | 40-1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 40-1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 40-1 |
| Kyler Murray | 40-1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 40-1 |
| Deshaun Watson | 50-1 |
| Cam Newton | 75-1 |
| Russell Wilson | 75-1 |
| Sam Darnold | 75-1 |
| Dak Prescott | 100-1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 100-1 |
| Daniel Jones | 125-1 |
| Joe Flacco | 125-1 |
| Nick Foles | 125-1 |
| Andy Dalton | 150-1 |
| Case Keenum | 150-1 |
| Dwayne Haskins | 150-1 |
| Josh Allen | 150-1 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 150-1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 150-1 |
| Eli Manning | 200-1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 200-1 |
The passing-yards leaderboard has been pretty consistent over the years. Since 2011, just four players have topped it: Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning.
You can make a case against all three of the active quarterbacks in 2019. While Brees is becoming more efficient as a passer, his yardage dropped significantly in each of the last two seasons. The Saints went from calling pass plays 63.4 percent of the time in 2016 to 56.3 in 2017, then all the way down to 54.3 percent last season. Brady's in the same boat, as New England's passing-play percentage sunk from 59.7 in 2017 to 54.9 last season. Roethlisberger is in the best situation of the three to keep the trend going, though his numbers will likely take a massive hit after the loss of Antonio Brown.
Here's who we think could rack up the most passing yards in 2019.
Favorite - Matt Ryan (9-2)
Ryan's had 4,500 yards or more in five of the last six seasons with the Falcons. Had it not been for a clunker in '17, he could have edged out Brady, whose light 4,577 yards led the pack.
This is an optimal time to buy on Ryan, who finally gets a change at offensive coordinator following a shoddy two seasons with Steve Sarkisian. Dirk Koetter steps in for his second stint, having held the role from 2012-14. In those three years under Koetter, Ryan attempted the most passes in his career. Toss in a favorable supporting cast and the veteran could earn top spot in this department for the first time.
Underdog - Baker Mayfield (10-1)
There's a lot to like about Mayfield following his first cup of coffee in the NFL. After swapping out Hue Jackson for Freddie Kitchens, Mayfield averaged 8.6 yards per attempt in his rookie season. Don't be surprised if the Browns chuck it a ton with a group of pass-catchers that includes Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, Antonio Callaway, Nick Chubb, and David Njoku.
Long shot - Kyler Murray (50-1)
We wouldn't mind taking a flier on this one. Murray's a wild card, coming into the NFL as an undersized quarterback on a bad team with a first-year head coach. The Cardinals are rebuilding, but unlike most of the other bottom-feeders, could at least be fun to watch. The franchise spruced up Murray's receiving corps in the draft to make life a little easier in Year 1. Given how often they'll be trailing, expect the Cardinals to throw a lot.
Odds to lead NFL in passing touchdowns
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 5-1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 5-1 |
| Matt Ryan | 7-1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 9-1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 10-1 |
| Jameis Winston | 14-1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 18-1 |
| Philip Rivers | 18-1 |
| Carson Wentz | 20-1 |
| Drew Brees | 20-1 |
| Tom Brady | 20-1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 25-1 |
| Deshaun Watson | 25-1 |
| Russell Wilson | 30-1 |
| Jared Goff | 35-1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 35-1 |
| Sam Darnold | 35-1 |
| Kyler Murray | 40-1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 40-1 |
| Cam Newton | 50-1 |
| Dak Prescott | 50-1 |
| Derek Carr | 50-1 |
| Andy Dalton | 75-1 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 75-1 |
| Nick Foles | 75-1 |
| Joe Flacco | 100-1 |
| Josh Allen | 100-1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 100-1 |
| Case Keenum | 150-1 |
| Dwayne Haskins | 150-1 |
| Daniel Jones | 150-1 |
| Eli Manning | 150-1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 150-1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 150-1 |
| Drew Lock | 150-1 |
| Josh Rosen | 150-1 |
Seven different quarterbacks have led the league in passing touchdowns since 2012. Here's who we like this season.
Favorite - Patrick Mahomes (5-1)
Mahomes should regress from his 50-touchdown mark. However, that's no reason to avoid him altogether.
It'd be lazy to claim that defenses will figure out Mahomes in his second full year under center. He was as close to a cheat code we've seen, from his pure arm strength to his no-look passes. If coming back down to earth means 40-plus passing scores, we're not getting cute and fading him - the Chiefs quarterback is the guy.
Underdog - Carson Wentz (20-1)
This is all about what's around Wentz. The Eagles acquired a vertical threat in DeSean Jackson and drafted the best red-zone target in the class, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. Add in mainstay Zach Ertz and Wentz has no shortage of weapons.
Long shot - Mitchell Trubisky (75-1)
The jury still appears to be out on Trubisky, another wild card who could take a huge step forward in Year 3 or flop completely. The Bears' offense improved last season under first-year head coach Matt Nagy, who, thanks to general manager Ryan Pace, had touchdown threats to work with following a splashy 2018 free-agency period. If there's another leap in the cards for 2019, Trubisky's ceiling is high.
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.