NFL Week 1 line movement: Bettors fading Cardinals, Raiders
The NFL season officially kicks off in a month, but Week 1 lines have been available since June. While most bettors wait until closer to the season to wager on opening matchups, some experienced sharps have already moved the lines on a few games.
SuperBook Race & Sports manager Derek Wilkinson told theScore that his sportsbook does see a significant amount of money wagered on Week 1 games from June through late August, but that most of the public money won't come until after the preseason.
For now, here's a breakdown of the Week 1 matchups that have seen the biggest line movements since the opening numbers were released.
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Opening Line: Lions -1
Current Line: Lions -2.5
It's a new era in Arizona, with head coach Kliff Kingsbury and quarterback Kyler Murray expected to breathe life into what was the NFL's worst offense in 2018. While the Cardinals will be more exciting this season, bettors are fading Arizona at home in Week 1. The Lions opened as a 1-point favorite but were quickly bet up to -2.5 because larger wagers from experienced bettors moved the line 1.5 points.
According to Sports Insights, 63 percent of the tickets are currently on the road favorite, although oddsmakers note that public money could back the Cardinals closer to kickoff if Murray shines during the preseason. And even with both sharp and public money on Detroit so far, the thinking is this line won't get to -3. So, if you like the Lions, there's no need to jump on them now after missing out on the better opening number. Wait to see if late money shifts the line back toward Arizona.
Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks
Opening Line: Seahawks -8
Current Line: Seahawks -9.5
This game is interesting because more than 60 percent of the tickets are on the underdog Bengals, yet the line still moved from -8 to -9.5 in Seattle's favor after star Bengals receiver A.J. Green was ruled out with an ankle injury. The reason for the reverse line movement is that while more tickets are on the Bengals overall, the big-money bets are on the Seahawks. For the most part, the public is backing the underdog while the sharps are laying the points with the favorite.
Oddsmakers do expect more public money to come in on Seattle once we get to September, but the line likely won't reach 10. If Seattle goes to -10, sharps will buyback on the Bengals and put sportsbooks in a tough spot with heavy liability on both sides. If you plan to bet the Bengals, there's no need to wait. The line has likely reached its ceiling at 9.5.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
Opening Line: Eagles -7.5
Current Line: Eagles -9
This game is another example of the line moving toward the favorite despite more bets on the underdog. The Redskins are getting close to 60 percent of the tickets, yet the number has moved 1.5 points toward the Eagles. Just like with the Seahawks, early sharp action is laying the points with the Eagles.
Wilkinson added that sharps are down on the Redskins, so it's not surprising to see them lay points early in the year against teams they're expected to struggle with. Despite the big line here, sharps are seeing value with the favorite.
While oddsmakers don't anticipate the Seahawks' line rising, the Eagles are a different story. The public is also in love with Philly this year, so expect more bets and money to back the Eagles as opening day nears. If you like the Eagles, take them at -9. If you plan on betting the Redskins, hold out for 9.5 or 10.
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
Opening Line: Broncos +3
Current Line: Broncos +1.5
The Raiders made a lot of changes this offseason, most notably adding receiver Antonio Brown to help ignite the passing game. So far, bettors aren't buying into Jon Gruden and the new-look roster. Oakland opened as a 3-point home favorite but that line has been cut in half with both the ticket count and money backing Vic Fangio and the Broncos.
One factor to remember with this game is the Raiders are currently on HBO's "Hard Knocks." Historically, teams featured on the show capture the public's eye - and money. While that may be the case, oddsmakers don't expect the number to get back to -3. There's simply too much liability on Denver +3 for the line to rise that high again. It's more likely the line closes Raiders -1 or gets to even by kickoff.