NFL touchdown leader odds, best bets, and long shot
Todd Gurley has scored the most touchdowns in the NFL in each of the last two seasons. Can Gurley do it again in 2019? Oddsmakers believe so. He opened as the 13-2 favorite to lead the NFL in touchdowns scored for the third year in a row.
Betting on which player will score the most touchdowns can sometimes offer gamblers value. Since quarterbacks aren't eligible, it comes down to running backs, receivers, and tight ends. In 2015, receivers Doug Baldwin, Allen Robinson, and Brandon Marshall tied Devonta Freeman for the league lead with 14 touchdowns. It was the first time since 2008 that a running back didn't sit alone atop the touchdowns scored leaderboard at the end of the season.
With running backs dominating the category, it's not surprising the receivers with the shortest odds are the Houston Texans' DeAndre Hopkins and the Green Bay Packers' Davante Adams, both at 28-1. The tight end with the shortest odds is Travis Kelce at 40-1. Don't waste your money on Kelce. Dating back to 1960, no tight end has led the NFL in touchdowns scored.
Here are the odds, best bets, and a long shot to lead the NFL in touchdowns scored this season:
| Player | Position | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | RB | 13-2 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | 7-1 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | 7-1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | RB | 10-1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | 14-1 |
| Melvin Gordon | RB | 14-1 |
| David Johnson | RB | 16-1 |
| James Conner | RB | 16-1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | RB | 16-1 |
| Devonta Freeman | RB | 20-1 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | 25-1 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | 25-1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 28-1 |
| Davante Adams | WR | 28-1 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | 28-1 |
| Joe Mixon | RB | 28-1 |
| Leonard Fournette | RB | 28-1 |
| Tyreek Hill | WR | 28-1 |
| Antonio Brown | WR | 33-1 |
| Mike Evans | WR | 33-1 |
| Sony Michel | RB | 33-1 |
| Chris Carson | RB | 40-1 |
| Dalvin Cook | RB | 40-1 |
| Damien Williams | RB | 40-1 |
| Julio Jones | WR | 40-1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | WR | 40-1 |
| Michael Thomas | WR | 40-1 |
| Marlon Mack | RB | 40-1 |
| Phillip Lindsay | RB | 40-1 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | 40-1 |
Best Bets
Saquon Barkley, RB Giants (7-1)
Barkley scored 15 touchdowns on 352 touches as a rookie. It's hard to fathom, but with question marks at quarterback and little depth behind Barkley, he could see an even bigger workload this season.
The only area Barkley needs to improve in to be a serious threat to score the most touchdowns is red-zone production. He ranked third in the NFL last year with 50 red-zone carries but converted just seven of them into scores.
Barkley will rank near the top of the NFL again in both total touches and red-zone carries, so he's a great bet at 7-1 to lead the NFL in touchdowns scored.
David Johnson, RB Cardinals (14-1)
Johnson led the NFL in touchdowns scored two years ago with 20. He was injured in 2017 but had 10 scores last season despite playing on the NFL's worst offense. With Kliff Kingsbury taking over as head coach, Arizona should have the NFL's most improved offense, giving Johnson even more scoring opportunities.
One area in particular where the fifth-year rusher was let down by his team's porous offense was in the red zone. Johnson led the league with a whopping 74.4 percent of his team's carries inside the red zone yet only received 29 red-zone carries. Leading the NFL in touchdowns scored is all about opportunity and the opportunities simply weren't there for Johnson last season.
Johnson is still the same elite running back he was two years ago. Now with an offensive-minded head coach, Johnson will once again rank near the top of the list in touchdowns scored. At 14-1, he's the best bet on the board.
Long shot
Odell Beckham Jr., WR Browns (40-1)
The best value play to lead the NFL in touchdowns scored is easily OBJ at 40-1. Beckham's odds are the same as Kelce's, a tight end with virtually no chance to win the award.
Beckham scored only nine touchdowns over the last two seasons due to injuries and poor quarterback play. He recorded 12, 13, and 10 touchdowns in his first three seasons. He also dominated in the red zone, seeing 69 targets inside the 20 from 2014 to 2016.
Now, OBJ gets a big upgrade at quarterback, going from the aging Eli Manning to budding superstar Baker Mayfield. With Beckham healthy and motivated, he's a strong candidate to lead the NFL in receiving scores, putting him in contention to cash the total touchdowns prop at 40-1.