Thursday Night Football betting preview: Rams vs. Seahawks

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Week 5 of the NFL season opens with a divisional clash between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks. Here, we dive into everything you need to know from a betting perspective.

Line movement

There's been some significant movement on the spread. Los Angeles opened as a 1.5-point favorite and hit as high as -2.5. But the line crossed zero and moved the other way after money poured in on the Seahawks, who are 1.5-point chalk as of Wednesday afternoon.

The total has also experienced a bump up from 47.5 to 49.5. The Rams played in the highest-scoring game of the season last week - a 55-40 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on their home turf. Last season, the two totals in the Rams-Seahawks matchups closed at 50.5 and 50, respectively.

Betting breakdown

Rams quarterback Jared Goff has been criticized for his home-road splits. The offense has struggled away from home, leading to the Rams going over the total only twice in their last nine road games.

Seattle head coach Pete Carroll loves these prime-time slots. The Seahawks have been as good as it gets on Thursday, going 7-0-2 against the spread in their last nine such games. Meanwhile, the Rams have been on the opposite end of the spectrum, as they are 1-5 ATS in the same situation.

There's little separating two offensive units that rank in the top half of the league in yards per play. The Seahawks have a minuscule edge at 5.9 against the Rams' 5.7. However, Seattle has faced three defenses - Cincinnati Bengals, New Orleans Saints, and Arizona Cardinals - that are bottom-eight in the NFL in yards allowed per play. L.A., meanwhile, has faced Carolina Panthers and Cleveland Browns defenses that are No. 2 and No. 13, respectively.

Important trends

Carroll's record on Thursday nights is great, sure, but his overall level of success in all prime-time games has been nothing short of spectacular. His Seahawks are currently on a 24-6-3 run ATS in these spots; narrow the trend down to strictly home games and the Seahawks improve to 17-2 straight-up and 15-3-1 ATS under Carroll. Needless to say, night games in prime time at CenturyLink Field have been a nightmare for Seattle's opponents.

X-factor

The Rams' secondary desperately needs to get back on the wagon following last week's double-digit loss to the Buccaneers. A unit that had been solid for the first three games of the season allowed Jameis Winston to throw for 376 yards in the 55-point outburst. But all's not lost for a defensive backfield that still, somehow, ranks No. 15 in the league in passing yards allowed per game (238.5).

Los Angeles especially needs to be better against a quarterback who's lit it up in prime time. Russell Wilson's quarterback rating in games played at night is 7.3 points higher than in those played during the day, and he's posting a career QBR north of triple digits under the lights. Wilson has been fantastic to start the year, surpassing 1,000 yards through the air with eight touchdowns against zero interceptions. Also, he's registered seven passing scores without a pick in his last three meetings with the Rams.

Wilson versus L.A.'s defensive backs should be a sneaky-good chess match Thursday.

Pick

Wilson Under 257.5 passing yards

With all the angles, betting nuggets, and what we know about these two teams, there are plenty of ways to go with this. I would have preferred the Seahawks at a pick 'em or better, but there's no upside in grabbing Seattle at -2.5 when +2.5 was available earlier in the week.

Goff scares me in this spot. In Week 3 on the road in prime time against the Browns, it was clear that the crowd noise was affecting his ability to communicate and read defenses. If he was having trouble in Cleveland, I can only imagine the struggles he'll face in Seattle.

I'm going to go a bit outside of the box here and take a shot on Wilson's passing yards prop. Despite his past success in prime-time games, he's thrown for fewer than 200 yards in the last four meetings against the Rams, and this is a big step up in class from what the Seahawks have seen so far defensively.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.