NFL best bets for Week 7
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Every Friday during the NFL season, theScore's betting writers will release their best bets for the week. Each writer has been given an imaginary $1,000 bankroll to manage throughout the campaign. If you decide to follow any of the picks, please gamble responsibly.
Odds courtesy of theScore Bet.
Thomas Casale ($1,218)
Season record: 5-2-1, +$218
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
I'm a Cowboys fan and I think they'll get smashed Sunday night. It's a big game with both teams sitting atop the NFC East at 3-3. I like taking underdogs in important games if the team catching points has a significant edge at head coach. This just in: Doug Pederson is a much better coach than Jason Garrett.
The other issue Dallas will have in this matchup is running the football. The Eagles have been awful versus the pass but rank second in rush defense, allowing just 72.8 yards per game. The Cowboys' offense struggles when it can't get Ezekiel Elliott going, and with star receiver Amari Cooper not 100% healthy, the Eagles' shaky secondary is catching a break.
The Cowboys have won three of the last four in this series but are just 1-18-1 against the spread (ATS) as home favorites when coming off a straight-up and ATS loss. That's the case this week. Philly will win outright on the road Sunday night.
Pick: Eagles +3 ($100)
Alex Kolodziej ($1,097)
Season record: 8-4, +$97
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Total: 47
I don’t really understand this total. Houston might be a shootout team, but Indianapolis is not. Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett is the perfect game manager, and I prefer to play Texans overs when they’re facing a pivot who can beat them deep. The Colts are perfectly content playing keep-away and letting their running game do the trick. I also don’t think Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson has a great matchup on his hands against an Indianapolis defense that's coming off a bye week, while Houston is playing the second of a back-to-back. The Texans have gone under the total in each of their last four against divisional opponents and five of six after an offensive outburst (30-plus points). Look for that trend to continue.
Pick: Under 47 ($40)
C Jackson Cowart ($865)
Season record: 6-7-1, -$135
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Total: 40.5
The Bills, behind an elite defensive unit, are the lone team that has gone under in every game this season. Miami is 4-1 to the under thus far, with its horrific offense to thank for the low-scoring games.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is expected to start at quarterback for the Dolphins, who've gone under in four straight and have thrown three times as many interceptions (9) as touchdowns (3). Bills QB Josh Allen should fare better against Miami's weak defense, though he's 12-5 to the under in his young career and has battled myriad injuries this season.
With oddsmakers pricing the Bills as gargantuan favorites, the best way to fade this historically inept Dolphins team is by pounding the under. Sign me up.
Pick: Under 40.5 ($100)
Alex Moretto ($785)
Season record: 5-7, -$215
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1, 47)
Last week was an unmitigated disaster - everything I looked at was torched beyond recognition, with the ashes doused in gasoline and then torched again. It sunk my bankroll and threw me below .500 for the first time this season. I've been eating frozen dinners all week and walking to work.
When in doubt, trust Frank Reich. He's done an outstanding job not just coaching up the Colts, but revamping their roster. It's crazy they're still being undervalued, but I'm not complaining. Reich is way too smart to get into a shootout with the Texans here. Both teams have excelled at running the ball and you can expect plenty of long, clock-sapping drives as they continue to do so on Sunday.
The Colts are rested and, more importantly, healthy coming out of their bye, and I like Reich to get the better of Bill O'Brien once again. This is a tough spot for the Texans in their second road game in a row, coming off an emotional win at Arrowhead over the Kansas City Chiefs. I can't stuff another Lean Cuisine meat lasagna down my throat. Indy will win a low-scoring game.
Picks: Colts -1 ($60), under 47 ($60)