NFL MVP and Super Bowl odds: Lamar, Ravens surging after statement win
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There was a moment after Week 1 when Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens felt like the hottest tickets on the market. They'd just embarrassed the Miami Dolphins behind their reinvented offense; Jackson looked like a brand new quarterback and legitimate MVP candidate. The Ravens' 40-1 Super Bowl preseason odds looked like the steal of the summer.
The moment was short-lived. The NFL quickly caught up to how bad the Dolphins are; the New England Patriots reclaimed AFC supremacy behind a historic defense; the Ravens faded away after losses to the Chiefs and Browns. Entering last week, Baltimore was 18-1 to win the Super Bowl, while Jackson's MVP odds were 7-1.
Then came Sunday night, when Jackson ripped apart the vaunted Patriots defense and handed New England its first loss. The moment is now back.
After that win, the Ravens are now 8-1 to win the Super Bowl, trailing only the Patriots (5-2), Saints (4-1), Chiefs (7-1), and undefeated 49ers (7-1). For his part, Jackson is now tied with Russell Wilson atop the MVP oddsboard at 3-1 - a far cry from the 100-1 opening odds he saw in June.
His MVP odds hovered around 50-1 entering the year, as did Baltimore's title odds at some books this summer. But the second-year quarterback has been the engine for the smash-mouth Ravens, who lead the league with 204.9 rushing yards per game - more than 30 yards ahead of second-place San Francisco.
Jackson is responsible for 79.6 of those per game - 10th-most in the league - on 6.4 yards per attempt, most of anyone with at least 50 carries. He's fifth among QBs in scrimmage yards per game (294.9) and fifth in ESPN's QBR (69.9), bolstering his statistical case for the award. As for MVP moments? He's had plenty of those, too.
He torched Miami's defense for a perfect passer rating in Week 1 and dropped a dime to freeze the Cardinals in Week 2. He became the first player in the modern era with 200 passing yards and 150 rushing yards in a win over Cincinnati and outdueled Wilson in Seattle a week later in an MVP showdown.
And, of course, he scored three touchdowns against the Patriots' historically stout defense in a prime-time statement win.
The Ravens' improved defense might be the best case for buying them now, aside from Jackson's early season brilliance. After featuring one of the shakier secondaries in the league through six weeks, Baltimore traded for former All-Pro Marcus Peters, who had a pick-6 against Seattle and has played at an elite level this year. Third-year corner Marlon Humphrey has scored a touchdown in consecutive games and forced the game-winning turnover in Pittsburgh, and Jimmy Smith returned Sunday after missing the previous six games.
Speedy receiver Marquise Brown is back in the fold, too, as the Ravens head into the meat of their schedule. It'd take an utter collapse for Baltimore to cede control of the AFC North crown, and the team is only 1.5 games back of the No. 1 seed thanks to its tiebreaker with New England.
It feels as if those two teams are fated to meet again in the postseason. Bill Belichick will surely have a new game plan for the rematch, though he's just 3-5 in his career when facing a team in the playoffs after losing to them in the regular season.
Does that make Baltimore the best bet in the AFC? With the Patriots reeling, it's not as far-fetched as it once seemed, and now may be the last time to buy at a value.
Other notes, movements
Cleveland Browns
Speaking of Super Bowl contenders from the AFC North ... Yikes. Remember when the Browns were as short as 10-1 at some books to win their first Super Bowl? They're 200-1 now, and even that might be giving too much credit to a 2-6 squad on a four-game losing streak. They're theoretically talented enough to run the table, which is what it might take to make the playoffs. But who's brave enough to bet that?
Chicago Bears
Oddsmakers are finally throwing in the towel on the Bears, who were among the most-bet teams in the offseason. Chicago is 200-1 to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at year's end, and quarterback Mitchell Trubisky - a sharp darling in the offseason MVP market - is 5,000-1 to win the award. That's not a typo. A.J. Green has the same odds and he hasn't even played a snap this year.
Houston Texans
Jackson isn't the only MVP hotshot leading his team to surprise Super Bowl contention. Deshaun Watson, now 5-1 to win MVP, is the engine behind the Texans' 6-3 record and 25-1 title odds. After outshining Patrick Mahomes in a Week 6 win, he'll take aim at Jackson in Baltimore after Houston's bye week. The winner of that game could easily skyrocket to sole possession of first place in the MVP race.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.