Sunday Night Football betting preview: Vikings at Cowboys
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Two of the more talented teams in the NFC are still finding their way heading into Sunday night, when the Dallas Cowboys host the Minnesota Vikings in the teams' first meeting since 2016.
The Vikings dropped a winnable game in Kansas City a week ago but are still just a game out of the NFC North lead and remain firmly in the wild-card race. The Cowboys are riding a two-game win streak but didn't look like themselves for much of Monday's breakaway win over the Giants.
Here's everything you need to know about the matchup from a betting perspective:
Line movement
In a game between near-equal teams, the Cowboys are predictably three-point home favorites with a line that hasn't moved all week. The total has also held firm at 47.5 as of Sunday.
Betting trends
The Vikings have covered nine of the last 10 meetings between these two. But on paper, this doesn't look like a favorable spot for the road 'dogs.
Minnesota has beaten up on bad teams but struggled against good ones as of late. Since coach Mike Zimmer took over in 2014, the Vikings are 6-11 against the spread in road games against clubs with a winning record, including seven straight losses and 11 in their last 13.
Zimmer has lost four straight ATS as a short 'dog (+3 or less), though the under is a scorching 13-4-1 for the coach in that spot, including 9-2-1 on the road. Prime time is a similar story: The Vikes are on a 1-5-1 ATS run, but the under is 12-4-1 in that spot since Zimmer took over in 2014.
The high total is a bit curious given how good these defenses are, and it could bode well for under bettors. When the total is at least 47, Zimmer is 7-3-1 to the under, while Jason Garrett's Cowboys are 7-2 to the under in the same spot.
The X-factor
Both offenses enter Sunday averaging 30 points per game since Week 5. Yet each defense matches up well with its opponent's strength.
The Cowboys have the second-best run game, per DVOA ratings, behind stud Ezekiel Elliott, though Minnesota's run defense is among the league's best. The Vikings excel when their play-action game is at full strength, but Dallas' top-flight secondary could make life difficult for Kirk Cousins and Co., especially with Adam Thielen sitting out this one.
Pick
When they're at their peaks, both teams have looked like potential NFC champions. Yet much of that damage has come against hapless defenses, which won't be the case for either club Sunday.
Thielen's injury makes Minnesota even more one-dimensional, which should concern those backing the oft-conservative Zimmer in a prime-time road spot. The Cowboys have flopped against good teams, too, so the under feels like the safest bet in what could resemble a throwback Sunday night affair.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.