Super Bowl LIV best bets
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Our betting team gives out their strongest Super Bowl wagers for Sunday's big game.
Thomas Casale
Kyle Juszczyk over 9.5 receiving yards
I'm going with a guy who has yet to record a stat in the playoffs. Juszczyk has been a bulldozer of a lead blocker for the 49ers' running game but he didn't register a carry or target in wins over the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers. I expect that to change come Sunday.
The Chiefs are one of the worst teams in the NFL when it comes to allowing receptions and yards to the running back position. Kansas City gave up an average of 6.3 receptions (third highest in the NFL) and 59.4 receiving yards (highest in the NFL) per game to opposing running backs during the regular season. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is legendary for exploiting a defense's weakness and he's used Juszczyk as a receiver in certain games this season. San Francisco's fullback has topped 9.5 yards receiving in six games and each time it came against a defense that struggled to defend running backs as pass-catchers.
One way to attack Steve Spagnuolo's aggressive Chiefs defense is to hit the running backs quickly in the flats. Juszczyk will get a couple of opportunities to make a big play on Sunday. He should easily eclipse 9.5 receiving yards and don't be surprised if the bet cashes on the 49ers' first offensive play from scrimmage.
C Jackson Cowart
Shortest touchdown under 1.5 yards
One of the most fun prop bets to root for is also one of the most reliable. Five of the last seven Super Bowls have featured a 1-yard touchdown, the lone exceptions being last year's 2-yard plunge - the only score of the game - and in 2015, when Marshawn Lynch didn't get the ball at the 1-yard line. Yikes.
The shortest touchdown has been under 1.5 yards in 24 of the 36 combined games this year for the Chiefs and 49ers. That alone would imply 1-2 odds, so you're getting a relative value (-145) at shorter than 2-3. If the Niners control the pace of this game, you'll be in even better shape - 10 of the last 12 San Francisco games have seen a 1-yard touchdown, with the other two games featuring a 2-yard score.
There's a chance you could get this prop polished off in the first quarter, which is always my kind of bet.
Alex Kolodziej
Pascal Siakam combined points + rebounds -0.5 vs. Jimmy Garoppolo total pass attempts
The 49ers were reminded two weeks ago that the less they use Garoppolo, the better their chances are of winning. San Francisco's rush offense should have a similar approach in the Super Bowl, up against a Kansas City defense that's vastly worse against the rush than it is versus the pass. The obvious downside to this handicap is the scenario in which the 49ers are trailing and Garoppolo has to throw, but San Francisco's defense has the ability to counter KC's potent offense and keep things from getting out of hand. I don't think Jimmy G will have to win the game for the Niners' offense.
I'm tying Siakam into this prop based strictly off the matchup. The Raptors face the Bulls, who can't stop anybody in the frontcourt - they allow the most fantasy points in the league to power forwards and the fourth-most fantasy points to centers. I'm taking Siakam over Garoppolo all day.
Alex Moretto
Under 54.5
Kyle Shanahan is a terrific football mind and he knows the last thing San Francisco needs in this game is to get involved in a shootout. The 49ers will conduct themselves on offense in a way that ensures they keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines as much as possible. Shanahan is the best there is at exploiting a defense's weakness and he will do just that, drawing up all sorts of pre-snap motion to run through Kansas City like they have every other team this year, sustaining long drives, milking the clock, and allowing their defense to stay rested on the sidelines.
The Chiefs will still get theirs, but opportunities on offense should be limited for Mahomes against a San Francisco defense that has allowed just 13.7 points per game and 4.5 yards per play when fully healthy this season, which it is now. We get an inflated total here because of how both offenses rolled over their opponents on championship weekend, but the 49ers will ensure this game is played at a much different pace, and they should have no issue in doing so given the way they can command the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. I expect this game to finish below 50 points, let alone 54.5.