Have the Broncos at last found their QB in Drew Lock?
It's been five years since the Broncos won Super Bowl 50, and general manager John Elway has spent that time trying to replace Peyton Manning, with little to show for it.
Since 2016, Denver is just 27-37, with zero playoff appearances. The Broncos have cycled through three head coaches since Manning, and they've endured three straight losing seasons for the first time since 1972. With all of the short-term roster improvements Denver just made, it's fair to wonder whether second-year head coach Vic Fangio will be coaching for his job - which, in turn, could have consequences for second-year quarterback Drew Lock's future in Denver.
Elway selected Lock in the second round of the 2019 draft. At 6-foot-4, 228 pounds, Lock is precisely the sort of tall, big-armed quarterback Elway tends to prefer. (Elway previously selected Brock Osweiler in the second round and Paxton Lynch in the first; both stand 6-foot-7. He also traded a fourth-rounder before last season to acquire Joe Flacco, who's 6-foot-6 and now with the New York Jets.)
Lock is the seventh QB to start for the Broncos since Manning's retirement, following such luminaries as Trevor Siemian, Lynch, Osweiler, Case Keenum, Flacco, and Brandon Allen - in that order.
The rookie finally got the wheel in Week 13, after Flacco and Allen had dug Denver into a 3-8 crater. Lock went 4-1, including a 38-24 takedown of eventual AFC South champions the Houston Texans on the road. In that victory, he completed 22 of 27 passes for 309 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, an adjusted yards per attempt of 12.0, and a passer rating of 136.0. It was far and away his best performance.
Lock was just OK in his other four starts, which included a total stinker against the Kansas City Chiefs, though he also brought the Broncos back from a 10-point deficit against the Detroit Lions. His four wins came against teams with a composite record of 25-38-1. He didn't make enough throws to qualify for most leaderboards, but he did throw five interceptable passes and just two money throws, with a total of seven danger plays, which are unnecessary risks that could have resulted in a turnover. His Total QBR of 48.2 would have ranked 24th. A PFF projection determined that Lock has a greater likelihood of being among the worst five QBs in the league in 2020 than he does of ranking in the top half.
Still, the Broncos got Lock plenty of help this offseason. They added former Chargers running back Melvin Gordon and Lions guard Graham Glasgow in free agency, then went all-in on skill players with speed in the draft: wideouts Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler in the first two rounds, plus tight end Albert Okwuegbunam in the fourth round. They now have Gordon to pair with Phillip Lindsay in the backfield; Courtland Sutton, Jeudy, Hamler, and DaeSean Hamilton at wideout; and Noah Fant and Okwuegbunam at tight end. On paper, at least, that's as fast and deep as any skill group in the league.
All those moves prompted NBC's Peter King to describe the 2020 Broncos as a franchise with the potential to rise substantially - or to stay down where they've been. "This is going to be a fun team to watch," King wrote. "I could see the Broncos, in a rising division, anywhere between second and fourth, anywhere between six and 11 wins." In all likelihood, Lock's play will determine that trajectory.
Lock has three years remaining on his rookie deal, with projected cap numbers of just $1.6 million, $1.9 million, and $2.3 million. But his fortunes are likely yoked to Fangio's. After all these improvements, which also included trades to acquire cornerback A.J. Bouye and defensive tackle Jurrell Casey, another losing season could prompt Elway to seek another coach, which would create all sorts of uncertainty for Lock. It's too soon to know whether the Broncos have found their QB, but by the end of 2020, they'll probably have their answer.
Dom Cosentino is a senior features writer at theScore.