Chiefs-Raiders betting trends and player props
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The Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) have lost only one of their last 18 games outright and just three against the spread. They'll have a chance Sunday to avenge that lone loss against the Las Vegas Raiders, who could be shorthanded in this much-anticipated rematch.
Here are our favorite trends, props, and bets for Sunday night.
Betting trends
As we mentioned before, the Chiefs don't lose often, and it's even rarer for them to lose a rematch. Kansas City has covered seven straight in a revenge spot with a 5-2 ATS run when avenging a loss from the same season.
Those trends are even stronger against divisional foes. The Chiefs are 19-7-1 ATS in divisional games since 2016, including 10-2 ATS in the second meeting of the season. They're also 7-4 ATS coming off a bye week under Andy Reid and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games when giving a touchdown or more.
The Raiders, meanwhile, are 17-26-1 ATS as underdogs since late 2016, including 4-7 ATS when getting at least seven points. They've covered five straight in divisional games but are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 against Kansas City.
The total is tied for the third-highest this season; totals of at least 55 are 24-14-2 to the over since 2016, and totals of 57 or higher are 18-6 to the over since the Chiefs and Raiders combined for 61 points on Christmas Day in 2004. They also went over in their Week 5 meeting with a combined 72 points, tied for the 11th-highest scoring game this season.
Player props
Tyreek Hill to score a touchdown (-134)
Hill has been a touchdown machine this year, and there are no signs he's going to stop scoring. He's tied for the NFL lead in touchdown receptions (nine) and has at least one in eight of his nine games this year, including when he rushed for a score against the Raiders in Week 5.
Las Vegas' defense is in flux after a COVID-19 outbreak sent 10 players - including multiple defensive starters - to the reserve list. Even if most or all of them suit up, the reduced practice time will make it tougher to plan for Hill, who's coming off two games with a combined four touchdowns on 24 targets.
Josh Jacobs over 65.5 rushing yards (-110)
After a somewhat slow start to the year for Jacobs, some wondered if the second-year back was regressing following a strong rookie season. Then he ripped off 306 rushing yards in three games, including last week's 112-yard effort against the Denver Broncos.
Game script may lessen his volume this week, but the Chiefs are still allowing the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing backs (108.6) despite leading for much of their nine games this season. Jacobs has rushed for at least 77 yards in all three of his career meetings with Kansas City and is due for a similar performance on Sunday.
Best bet
Chiefs -7.5
This was one of my best bets of the week; the Chiefs are stellar in divisional games and rarely get swept, and the Raiders are in a poor spot to replicate their Week 5 magic given the adversity they've faced this week. Maybe Las Vegas simply has its rival's number, but if there's ever a week to bet on a Kansas City blowout, this is it.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.