NFL Thanksgiving Pros vs Joes: Bettors fading Cowboys, Lions
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Before making your NFL bets on this shortened Thanksgiving slate, it's worth knowing which sides other bettors are backing - especially on games drawing sharp action.
We talked to Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, to see how sharps and public bettors are playing the Thanksgiving Day matchups.
Texans (-3, 51) @ Lions, 12:30 p.m. ET
Thursday's first game is easily the least significant, as neither team has a viable path to the postseason. But that hasn't stopped sharps from taking a clear position on this one.
As of late Wednesday, the Texans were drawing four times as many straight-bet tickets and three times as much money wagered compared to the Lions, who are 5-11 against the spread on Thanksgiving since 2004. The parlay margins are even wider - Houston is seeing twice as many tickets with a whopping 20-to-1 advantage in money.
“It’s fairly exclusively Texans so far,” Rood said.
Washington @ Cowboys (-3, 46.5), 4:30 p.m.
Bettors are also favoring the road team in the second leg of Thursday's doubleheader, but they are more split in the parlay market.
Washington has drawn twice as many straight bets with three times as much money, even with this line moving from an opening number of 2. The team is also pulling four times as much money in parlay bets but the Cowboys have twice as many tickets written to them, setting up somewhat of a Pros vs. Joes situation in this one.
Recent results would favor the parlay bettors' play here. Dallas is 8-4 ATS against Washington in its last 12 matchups, including a 5-2 ATS record since 2017.
Ravens @ Steelers (N/A)
This game is off the board and rescheduled for Sunday after a COVID-19 outbreak within the Ravens organization, so all bets will be refunded. Still, it's worth noting the early betting activity to get a better read on this game when it's posted again.
The Steelers were 3.5-point favorites early in the week and this line ran all the way up to 5.5 before being taken down on Wednesday. Interestingly, there was still enough two-way action to keep this game balanced, even as the number climbed throughout the week.
Does that mean this game could re-open closer to 3.5 with a new date? Not likely, Rood says, since Baltimore could still be dealing with the effects of its COVID-19 outbreak into the weekend.
“It’s gonna beat a similar number," Rood said. "We don’t know the impact of who's going to be there and who's not. ... I could see a (line of) 6 on this game if there are four or five guys that are still going to be out.”
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.