Giants-Vikings player props: Putting players under the microscope
We've had fun all season long with the NFL's version of "Must See TV" Thursdays. We've tried to keep things light, using the famous TV show "Seinfeld" to help with our look at the prop markets and get us in the right state of mind. While the playoffs mean it's more serious for the players, we should be reminded that it's still just any other game for bettors, and there are still lessons to be taken from Jerry, George, Elaine, and Kramer.
"I'll tell you what, Chubs. If that yogurt has fat in it, I'll put myself on an all-yogurt diet for a week."
"Well, let's start the insanity." - Jerry, accepting Kramer's bet that the non-fat yogurt at his store is as advertised.
If there's a favorite to hit peak NFL Wild Card insanity, it's Giants-Vikings. Their Week 16 meeting wasn't the wildest Vikings game all season, but if we get a replica of it on Sunday, we'll be talking about it for days. Luckily, we don't have to wager a wacky week-long diet on that, but there are other bets worth making between two teams that weren't as advertised this season.
The Giants were consistently underrated in the market, winning six of their first seven on the way to becoming a surprise playoff team. While the Vikings started 10-2, when put under the metrics microscope, all analysis shows that they're not as good as their record. That makes this a perfect matchup for Episode 7 of Season 5 of "Seinfeld."
'The Non-Fat Yogurt'
Kramer invests in what turns out to be a wildly popular "non-fat yogurt" shop, but after a week of indulging, both Jerry and Elaine find they've put on weight. They send the product to the lab to analyze its contents.
Daniel Jones normally is asked to play conservatively, using both his and Saquon Barkley's legs to create offense. However, it's likely the Giants' offense isn't what it seems - in a good way - against a bad Vikings pass defense.
Jones' projected yardage total is at least 15 yards higher than the last time he took on Minnesota - when he racked up an uncharacteristic 334 yards - so we'll look elsewhere for value in the Giants' passing game.
New York ironed out its receiver personnel in Week 12, landing on a trio of Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, and Richie James. James has averaged 5.6 receptions as part of this starting group and provides the easiest option to take advantage of Minnesota's lack of secondary depth by lining up against nickel defensive backs. Given that James was targeted on 11 throws last time in Minnesota, the Giants are aware he can help move the ball between the 20s.
Pick: Richie James over 4.5 receptions (+100)
A TD that's definitely going to happen
Elaine meets George's adolescent nemesis, mayoral advisor Lloyd Braun, but she gets him fired when he passes on her idea that New Yorkers should wear name tags so that citizens become more familiar with each other.
The entire league is familiar with Justin Jefferson's work, as he's shown exactly what we thought: He's the best receiver in the NFL this season, leading the league with 1809 yards. He only scored in seven of 17 games, though, which means we have to go into the lab - bunsen burners and all - to figure out if he's more or less likely to score this Sunday.
Jefferson's priced around even money to score - in tune with the probability mentioned above - but he was targeted 16 times for 12 catches and 133 yards with a touchdown in Week 16. The hope for the Giants this time around is the potential return of oft-injured cornerback Adoree' Jackson, who's been out since Nov. 20. However, it's not like Jackson's ever been rated anywhere near the top corners in the league, and he'd have his hands full with Jefferson, who's lankier than Tommy Tune and just as fine a dancer.
Jefferson has scored in seven of 11 games when Kirk Cousins has targeted him 10-plus times, or 63.6% of the time. That rate would translate to odds of -175, so unless you think the Giants can scheme a way to shift Cousins' attention from Jefferson, he's a good bet to score in what should be a high-scoring game.
Pick: Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown (+110)
A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does
With the weekend's highest total, this game doesn't provide the same tantalizing long-shot touchdown menu befitting the yogurt shop. However, Matt Breida gets 10-to-12 snaps per game and has the speed out of the backfield to make a play in the passing game when spelling Barkley.
If something were to happen to Barkley, most Giants fans will curse a blue streak like Jerry in front of an impressionable child, but that would just mean more opportunity for Breida to score, and we'll have to claim involuntary movement when we knowingly elbow the friend next to us.
Pick: Matt Breida anytime touchdown (+500)
How to bet: The first two bets should be single-unit wagers to win a unit on minus prices and more than a unit on a plus-money bet. The last wager should be smaller, trying to win back your standard unit size.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.