Cowboys-49ers divisional round best bets: Turning defense into offense

Just over a year ago, the clock hit zero at the same moment Dak Prescott spiked the ball into the ground to bring an end to the Cowboys' season. The 49ers moved on to the divisional round and, eventually, the NFC title game. San Francisco changed quarterbacks and added an All-Pro-level tailback since then, but the biggest difference in this rematch is the change in setting.

Cowboys @ 49ers (-3.5, 46)

The Cowboys were 3-point favorites at home last year, while the 49ers are favored by slightly more than a field goal at Levi's Stadium this year. That's due to San Francisco's home-field advantage and extra days of rest, as well as a modest upgrade to the 49ers and/or a small downgrade to Dallas.

This game opened with the 49ers as a 4-point favorite, but the move down to -3.5 is one I agree with. Given how highly the market has rated the Cowboys since Prescott returned, the 49ers' rating would need a sizable upgrade for that opening to make sense. The 49ers comfortably covered spreads down the stretch but faced just one team in the top 13 of Football Outsiders' DVOA during their current 11-game winning streak - the Dolphins, who won just one more game the rest of the season.

What typically happens when a team's rating receives a boost after a big winning streak?

The question for the 49ers is how a step up in weight class will affect rookie quarterback Brock Purdy. Skeptics have been waiting for Purdy to have something of an implosion that costs his team a game, but against mediocre competition, any first-half struggles are long forgotten by the second half, which is when the 49ers habitually take over. Meanwhile, Prescott is tied for the league lead in interceptions despite playing in just 12 games, meaning he's just as likely to make the crucial mistake.

In the current era of the NFL, good defenses build their statistical resumes against bad teams. When it comes to facing quality offenses, the name of the game is the ability to create turnovers and force field goals in the red zone. While both the Cowboys' and 49ers' defensive units are in the top 10 in yards per play against, they've shown vulnerability against good teams like the Eagles and Chiefs, respectively.

We don't need to dive too deep into each offense - we know what the Dallas passing game is capable of when Prescott plays well, while San Francisco's combination of design and talent in the run game, along with its play-action menu, is feared throughout the league.

Both defenses can make their mark by creating turnovers. For the second straight year, Dallas led the NFL with 1.9 takeaways per game, while San Francisco was right behind it with 1.8. While a suffocating defense lends itself to a field-position battle and low scoring, the high-variance nature of turnovers - which may lead to return touchdowns or good field position - can mean a high-scoring game for two teams that are explosive on both sides of the ball.

Pick: Over 46 total points

Deebo Samuel over 14.5 rushing yards

Samuel's first 10-carry game of last season came during the wild-card game in Dallas, and he ran for 72 yards. He had three carries last week, but if the game had been closer in the fourth quarter, he may have been a more prominent option in high-leverage situations. In what should be a tight game late on, look for San Francisco to go back to what worked against Dallas last year.

T.Y. Hilton over 25.5 receiving yards

Since making his Cowboys debut on Christmas Eve with a 51-yard catch on his only official target, Hilton has been thrown to 13 times in three games. The 49ers' weakness on defense is in the secondary, as DK Metcalf torched Charvarius Ward for 10 catches last week. Ward won't be left alone on CeeDee Lamb, so there should be some single coverage for Hilton, whose role should continue to increase.

Ezekiel Elliott over 4.5 receiving yards

Elliott didn't come close to his prescribed rushing yards total Monday against the Buccaneers' twin run-stoppers Akiem Hicks and Vita Vea, dropping his total into the 30s for this week. Elliott, a better pass-protector than Tony Pollard, will still be involved in helping against Nick Bosa and the 49ers' pass rush. One swing pass over oncoming rushers should be enough to cash the over on a short total.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.