Is the NHL's goal-scoring spike here to stay?
Hockey fans have been longing for more goals in their sport, and they've gotten their wish this season.
There has been an average of 6.04 goals per game so far - the highest the league has seen since the first campaign of the post-lockout era in 2005-06.
| Season | Goals per game |
|---|---|
| 2017-18 | 6.04 |
| 2016-17 | 5.54 |
| 2015-16 | 5.42 |
| 2014-15 | 5.46 |
| 2013-14 | 5.48 |
| 2012-13 | 5.44 |
| 2011-12 | 5.46 |
| 2010-11 | 5.58 |
| 2009-10 | 5.68 |
| 2008-09 | 5.82 |
| 2007-08 | 5.56 |
| 2006-07 | 5.90 |
| 2005-06 | 6.16 |
As you can see, in the seven seasons prior to 2017-18, the NHL's goals-per-game mark hovered around 5.5, but it has taken a half-goal jump.
This can partially be attributed to the increase in slashing penalties, which has led to 6.96 power-play opportunities per game - the most since 2010-11. This season, there have already been 462 slashing penalties called, according to ESPN, or 1.467 per game. This compared to 791 slashing penalties all of last season, for an average of 0.643 per game.
Not only has the slashing crackdown led to more power plays, which result in more goals, but it has also made players think twice before taking a whack at an opposing player, which in itself leads to more scoring chances. This could also explain why there have been more shots per game (31.7) this season than any other since Hockey Reference began recording in the early 1980s.
But that change can't take all the credit for the increase in goals. The table above showed there was already a slight increase in goal-scoring last season compared to the previous five seasons. This came in spite of there being only 5.98 power-play opportunities per game in 2016-17 - the lowest ever recorded by Hockey Reference.
The table below shows NHL teams' median high-danger scoring chances per game at five-on-five, per Natural Stat Trick. It's clear that, penalties aside, there have been more high-quality scoring chances in recent years.
| Season | HDCF/60 Median |
|---|---|
| 2017-18 | 10.94 |
| 2016-17 | 10.34 |
| 2015-16 | 10.005 |
| 2014-15 | 9.93 |
| 2013-14 | 9.91 |
The reason for this can't be quantified by numbers, but a variety of theories suggest it's sustainable:
- The aforementioned theory on players being hesitant to use their sticks to slow players down in fear of being penalized.
- More fast, yet undersized, players being given a chance to play.
- Speed and skill taking precedence over grit, toughness on fourth lines.
- A new wave of superstars growing up with skill coaches, and therefore displaying new ways of creating offense.
All of these theories could play a part in the NHL's scoring spike. If that's the case, it's likely the increase is here to stay, given the last scoring surge (2005-06) relied much more heavily on power-play goals.
In 2005-06, nearly a third (33.44 percent) of all goals came on the man advantage - an unsustainable rate. This season, only 22.51 percent of goals have been of the power-play variety - only a two percent increase from last season (20.57).
It's worth noting that teams are scoring on 19.47 percent of power plays this season - the highest since 1992-93. However, power-play percentage has been trending upward in recent years. The 19.1 percent mark from last season was also the highest since 1992-93.
This upward trend can largely be attributed to stick technology, as players are shooting the puck harder than ever. As any hockey fan knows, blasting a one-timer is the best way to score with the man advantage.
Only time will tell if this season's scoring pace is for real, but all signs are pointing toward yes, providing optimism for fans who have been starving for more offense.