NHL Wednesday betting preview: Fade the Leafs, Hutchinson at MSG
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Tuesday night was a sickening case of what could have been.
We had a pair of winners in the Arizona Coyotes (-125) and a contest between the Ottawa Senators and Anaheim Ducks that needed extra time (+300). But we were otherwise buried by a blown three-goal lead, bad bounces, an overtime loss, and a shootout loss. You can't make this stuff up.
Despite a modest two-game slate, I'm feeling great about Wednesday's card. It's going to be a big night.
GOATs and scapegoats
This distinction could go to Antti Raanta for his shutout in the desert, but Tuesday's true GOAT was overtime king Marcus Hogberg. The guy lives for OT. As noted in yesterday's article, seven of his last 10 starts had required the extra frame. Well, make that eight of his last 11 after last night. I sincerely hope you took advantage of the +300 odds on a tie game after regulation.
There are several deserving contenders for Tuesday's scapegoat crown, but one particularly irked me. I hate to rag on a classy veteran like Joe Pavelski, but he really did us no favors last night. Not only did he squander a glorious chance to break a 3-3 tie late, but he committed an unforgivable turnover that gifted the New York Islanders an overtime win after the Dallas Stars absolutely dominated the three-on-three period. Just a brutal loss.
Wednesday's bets
New York Rangers (+120)
To call this a massive game for the Toronto Maple Leafs would be an understatement. They collapsed in rather spectacular fashion Monday against a team they're chasing in the playoff race, and they now find themselves in a crucial bounce-back spot against a team they need to beat. But what evidence have the Maple Leafs provided to suggest they have the character to respond? I'm especially hesitant to trust them with Frederik Andersen out.
Michael Hutchinson gets the start and has been absolutely miserable away from Toronto this season, allowing at least four goals in each of his seven road appearances. He's posted a 4.73 goals-against average with an .861 save percentage away from home in 2019-20. The Rangers should be able to get to him fairly easily with the Maple Leafs' leaky defense offering little resistance.
On the other side, Igor Shesterkin will get the nod for New York. The rookie has impressed in his first four NHL starts, allowing three goals or fewer in each of them while posting a 3-1-0 record with a .927 save percentage. Hutchinson can only dream of such numbers. Getting the Rangers at plus-money is an absolute steal.
Chicago Blackhawks (+140), Blackhawks' team total over 3.5 (+215), Boston Bruins' team total under 2.5 (+200)
I've got a tripleheader going at the United Center tonight. The Blackhawks are 5-0-0 at home when playing on no rest this season, scoring at least four goals in each contest. They're 9-1 straight up in the second legs of back-to-backs regardless of the venue, allowing two goals or fewer in seven of those games. The Bruins, meanwhile, have lost five of their last six road games after playing at home the night before, allowing at least four goals in each of those tilts. They've also scored two or fewer goals in each of their last five games played on no rest. I need to get my hands on a Blackhawks jersey for tonight.
Best bet
New York Rangers' team total over 3.5 (+130)
If Hutchinson's stats weren't enough to convince you, consider this:
The Rangers have scored four or more goals in six of their last nine games at Madison Square Garden, only failing to do so against the Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Islanders, and Dallas Stars - three of the NHL's four best teams in terms of goals allowed. The Maple Leafs, meanwhile, rank bottom-five in that regard and have allowed 27 goals over their last five road games against Eastern Conference teams.
Trend of the night
The Maple Leafs are on a 9-0-1 run to the over in road games against Eastern Conference opponents.
That's quite a remarkable run. Toronto has both conceded and scored in bunches over that stretch, but bookmakers are starting to adjust, setting a total of 7 for tonight's contest. Still, you'd have to be a glutton for punishment to bet the under.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.