NHL Tuesday best bets: Leafs, Wild to prevail at home
Monday was a good night for our best bets - the Calgary Flames and Colorado Avalanche both came through with regulation victories.
After backing a pair of road sides, we'll flip the switch and try our luck with two home teams Tuesday night.
Lightning (+105) @ Maple Leafs (-125)
This is one of the most evenly matched opening-round series, which is what we expected heading into the playoffs.
The Toronto Maple Leafs' 16-14 lead on the scoreboard is reflective of the series as a whole. The margins are very slim, but Toronto's been slightly better than the Tampa Bay Lightning, controlling 51% of the shots and 52% of the expected goals across all situations.
I like the Maple Leafs to get a result tonight and put the Lightning on the brink. While the two sides split in each building, home ice has been very important in this series.
Toronto can get Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner ice time in more advantageous situations. David Kampf's line will take some of the load off and eat ice against Tampa's best, which will make a big impact.
Matthews and Marner combined for 10 points through the first two games to help Toronto outplay Tampa Bay at five-on-five. But it was a very different story on the road: The superstar duo combined for two points, and the Lightning outchanced the Leafs with them on the ice - Marner especially.
It's fair to say stars have been the deciders each night. With the Maple Leafs at home and in better position to extract more from theirs, I expect them to prevail.
Bet: Maple Leafs (-125)
Blues (+115) @ Wild (-140)
This series is also tied through four games, but I love what I've seen from the Minnesota Wild and am confident they're the better side.
The St. Louis Blues have been slapped around at five-on-five all series long, controlling a hair over 40% of the expected goals and high-danger chances. Not great!
Already dealing with issues defensively, the Blues now have a cluster of injuries on the back end. Torey Krug, Nick Leddy, and Robert Bortuzzo are all banged and expected to miss time. Krug is most important, of course, and head coach Craig Berube already announced that the 31-year-old will be out for a while.
The Wild should come out with a convincing effort on home soil. With their best players out there, they should have no problem taking advantage of a very patchwork defense unit.
Jordan Binnington getting the nod in goal would be another positive for Minnesota. He held his own last time out but posted an .891 save percentage over 19 games after the calendar flipped. He's not in great form and can be exploited.
Bet: Wild (-140)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.