NHL Wednesday player props: 3 shooters to back at home
We had a very successful regular season for shot totals and have found another level in the playoffs. Unfortunately, we hit some regression Tuesday, as all three of our players fell short of their respective totals.
We'll look to get back on track with another trio for Wednesday's three-game slate.
Jonathan Huberdeau over 2.5 shots (-143)
Death, taxes, and backing Huberdeau on home ice. The Panthers star had a monstrous regular season and has carried that into the playoffs. Huberdeau has at least three shots in two of four games this postseason; one can guess where those games took place. That's right: Florida.
Huberdeau has generated three shots or more in 31 of his last 36 games (regular season and playoffs) at FLA Live Arena. That's a ridiculous 86% success rate. Although the odds are starting to move, there is still real value in backing Huberdeau. These odds imply he has only a 58% chance of hitting three shots against the Capitals.
Sam Bennett over 2.5 shots (-125)
Bennett isn't Huberdeau, but he might well be the next best thing. Despite falling short in both home dates to start this series, Bennett enters Wednesday's contest having hit three shots in 22 of his last 30 in Florida. That's a 73% hit rate.
He's one of the most efficient shot generators in the NHL, especially at home; he gets more ice time in advantageous situations and usually makes the most of it.
The Panthers' offense has been prolific in this series with Bennett on the ice: No Florida forward has been on the ice for more shot attempts than Bennett (71 through four games). The Panthers get a ton of looks when Bennett is involved, and history tells us he'll take more than his fair share of them.
Mikael Backlund over 2.5 shots (-106)
Backlund isn't a player we've backed often, but there are several encouraging factors working in his favor here. For starters, the Flames center has feasted on the Stars all season, recording three shots or more in six of seven meetings this year. The lone exception was Game 4 of this first-round matchup; Backlund had two shots on target despite generating a whopping seven attempts. With that kind of volume, he was unlucky not to hit.
Is this data telling, though, or has Backlund simply been lucky? The underlying numbers suggest the former. He's averaged 5.9 shot attempts against Dallas this season, well above his overall total of 4.4 per game.
That's probably not a coincidence, as the Stars were one of the league's worst teams at preventing shots to centers down the stretch.
The matchup is good, and Backlund has consistently taken advantage of it. Look for him to do so again in Game 5.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.