Hart Trophy Rankings: Kaprizov keeps carrying surging Wild

Now that we're nearly two months into the 2024-25 NHL season, the MVP race is starting to take shape.

The same player who led our last monthly edition in November remains on top this time around, and for good reason. Meanwhile, a couple of new but familiar contenders have emerged - including a goaltender - and another perennial candidate is back in the thick of the race.

Here are our top five Hart Trophy candidates as we draw ever closer to the end of the calendar year.

xGF% = Expected goals for percentage at five-on-five
GSAx = Goals saved above expected
GSAA = Goals saved above average

5. Connor Hellebuyck, Jets

Previous: Unranked

Hellebuyck is the Vezina Trophy front-runner, and he deserves some MVP consideration, too. Winnipeg has stumbled a bit lately after a scorching start, but as we noted in our goalie rankings, that's clearly not the netminder's fault. He leads all puck-stoppers in wins, GSAx and GSAA, and he's tied for the league lead with three shutouts.

Sure, the Jets' offense has been one of the best in the NHL, and it boasts three players posting more than a point per game. But none of those skaters are Hart candidates, and Hellebuyck has been a huge part of the squad's early run, providing stellar play at the most important position.

No goalie has won the Hart since Carey Price in 2015, and it's only happened twice since 2002. So Hellebuyck will be hard-pressed to win it, but the United States' likely starter in the upcoming 4 Nations Face-Off will stay in the MVP conversation as long as he and his NHL club remain elite.

4. Jack Eichel, Golden Knights

Previous: Unranked

Eichel hasn't lit it up in the goal-scoring department and his xGF% is uninspiring, but he's provided plenty of value to Vegas in other ways. The dynamic center sits second in the league lead in assists, ranks fourth in points, and is tied for second in even-strength points (27). He has 13 more assists and 10 more points than any other Golden Knights teammate.

The former Buffalo Sabre is tied for sixth among all NHL skaters in wins above replacement, and he's also in the top 10 in goals above replacement and standings points above replacement.

Eichel's defensive play hasn't been great in 2024-25, but his playmaking has more than made up for that in the early going. He'll have to improve his two-way game to become a lock as a Hart finalist, but he's been a catalyst for the Pacific Division-leading Golden Knights and has outperformed the rest of a talented roster.

3. Sam Reinhart, Panthers

Previous: 2

Reinhart made a strong Hart case over the first month of the season by shining when Florida's Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk missed time with injuries. Even with his talented teammates back in the fold, the Canadian is still providing value that's superior to the other two. And it's significant enough that he should remain in the MVP hunt.

The ex-Buffalo Sabres forward (yes, like Eichel), who Canada named to its 4 Nations roster Wednesday, has been an all-around force for the Panthers this season. Reinhart leads all NHL skaters in WAR and GAR, and he's tied for the league lead in standings points above replacement. His 3.1 defensive GAR is tied for sixth among all forwards, which illustrates his sterling 200-foot game. Barkov, the reigning Selke Trophy winner, is tied for 13th in that regard (2.2).

Reinhart has six more goals and nine more points than the closest Panthers skaters in 2024-25. He's buried nine tallies to go along with seven helpers in 14 games since our last edition Nov. 7. That's a decrease from the blistering pace he was on to start the season, but he's still displaying two-way prowess for one of the Atlantic Division's top teams.

2. Connor McDavid, Oilers

Previous: Unranked

The Edmonton superstar makes his triumphant return to the Hart race, and he comes roaring back into the runner-up position by virtue of being on a typical McDavid-esque heater. The three-time MVP had some ground to make up in the Art Ross Trophy hunt in part because he missed a few games due to injury earlier this season, but a four-assist effort Thursday night vaulted him right back into the mix.

McDavid has been exemplary since our last instalment. The Oilers captain leads all NHL skaters in points (25) and even-strength points (18) in the 12 games he's played in that span. He's also logging 22:39 per night, which ranks fourth among the league's forwards, since our last edition.

Much like Nathan MacKinnon's case amid strong campaigns from teammates Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar, McDavid's Hart hopes may be damaged by Leon Draisaitl's nearly equal output. As sublime as McDavid has been - especially lately - he might need to separate himself even further to get back into the driver's seat.

1. Kirill Kaprizov, Wild

Previous: 1

The fact that Kaprizov continues to lead this race shouldn't come as much of a surprise given how critical he's been to Minnesota's early success. The 27-year-old winger averaged 44 goals and 49 assists over the previous three seasons, but he's raised his game to new heights in 2024-25.

Kaprizov is on track for 53 tallies and 76 helpers over a 79-game pace, and that 129-point total would shatter his career-best output of 108 from 2021-22. He leads the NHL in points per game and even-strength points (30), and he's tied for second in even-strength goals with 13. The Russian also ranks third among the league's forwards in average ice time. He's tied for second in the NHL with nine goals since our last edition.

But it's not just about his gaudy totals. Kaprizov has at least five more goals, 10 more assists, and 15 more points than any of his teammates. He's truly doing the heavy lifting offensively for a Minnesota squad that's stormed out of the gate to a league-best .760 points percentage.

Keep an eye on:

• Nathan MacKinnon, Avalanche
• Jack Hughes, Devils
• Martin Necas, Hurricanes
• Nikita Kucherov, Lightning (injured)

(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)