Olympic rosters: Lingering questions, final projections for Canada and USA

The wait is almost over. Each of the 12 countries competing in the men's hockey tournament at the 2026 Olympics in Milan, Italy, must submit a 25-man roster by Wednesday - 14 forwards, eight defensemen, three goalies.

Team Canada general manager Doug Armstrong and Team USA GM Bill Guerin both have extremely difficult decisions to make, and their roster-building skills will be heavily scrutinized if a gold medal isn't brought home.

Let's unpack some lingering questions relating to the two rosters, then take a stab at one final projection. (Note: the projected rosters are a prediction of which players each country will select, not my personal picks.)

Team Canada

How do star youngsters fit into plans?

Macklin Celebrini, Connor Bedard, and Matthew Schaefer are the best 20-and-under players on the planet. All three hail from Canada.

Celebrini is an MVP-caliber player. His 57 points in 38 games for the Sharks rank third in the NHL, though his shift-to-shift impact extends far beyond the box score. Frequently drawing comparisons to Sidney Crosby thanks to a similar skill set and playing style, Celebrini could man a wing on any Canada forward line. It would be shocking if the North Vancouver, B.C., kid didn't get selected for the Feb. 11-12 tournament.

Bedard was enjoying a terrific third season (44 points in 31 games) when he suffered a shoulder injury on Dec. 12. While he's scheduled to return to action prior to the Olympics, the injury complicates an already shaky candidacy. As a sharpshooting winger rather than a two-way center like Celebrini, Bedard offers the coaching staff limited options regarding usage and deployment. His injury theoretically gives Armstrong a tiebreaker and an easy out. Leave Bedard off the roster, but keep a close eye on his return to the Blackhawks' lineup in case another forward gets hurt ahead of the Games.

Schaefer, the NHL's youngest player, is in contention for a blue-line spot. The minute-munching, smooth-skating 18-year-old deserves to make the team on merit. There's the long view to consider, too. If Schaefer's trending toward becoming the Cale Makar of his generation of Canadian D-men, wouldn't the Olympic experience be tremendously beneficial to both player and country?

Makar's already on the team. Devon Toews, Josh Morrissey, Shea Theodore, and Drew Doughty are virtual locks. That leaves three D-man spots to be filled by some combination of lefties Schaefer, Thomas Harley, Jakob Chychrun, and Travis Sanheim, and righties Colton Parayko and Evan Bouchard.

How much snarl is too much snarl?

Canada has no shortage of offensive geniuses, from Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Crosby to Mitch Marner, Brayden Point, and Sam Reinhart. A few Swiss Army knives (think Brandon Hagel) will also play key roles up front.

Then there's the agitator types. Canada had two on its 4 Nations Face-Off roster in Brad Marchand and Sam Bennett, and a third, Tom Wilson, has emerged in 2025-26. Olympic hockey follows the International Ice Hockey Federation rulebook, which isn't particularly fond of outwardly aggressive behavior, so handing coach Jon Cooper three agitators might be overkill.

Marchand deserves a spot based on his play for the Panthers. The 37-year-old winger would also add wisdom and levity to the dressing room and be first in line to take on team spokesperson duties during media availabilities.

Bennett, the reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner, is a tricky player to evaluate. On one hand, he's in the middle of an unremarkable regular season in Florida. On the other hand, he's historically saved his best hockey for the playoffs and scored a massive goal in the 4 Nations final back in February.

Wilson, the Capitals' leader in goals, points, and forward ice time, is versatile. Standing 6-foot-4 and weighing 225 pounds, he's renowned as an enforcer who can punish opponents but also as a formidable offensive threat. In addition to his physicality and scoring ability, Wilson excels in many nuanced areas (forechecking, blocking shots, wall play, penalty killing, etc.).

To summarize: Marchand is invaluable, and Wilson brings more overall value than Bennett to a stacked group that's better off with two, not three, agitators.

Which goalies are worth betting on?

Jordan Binnington, a Stanley Cup winner who showed well at 4 Nations, will be on the team despite posting horrible numbers this season (.870 save percentage and minus-9.4 goals saved above expected through 23 games).

Logan Thompson is a virtual lock as the second goalie. The Capitals starter's rocking a .917 save percentage and plus-24.7 goals saved above expected in 27 contests.

Darcy Kuemper of the Kings and Mackenzie Blackwood of the Avalanche are reportedly in the running for the final netminder spot. The decision might come down to this: Does Armstrong want someone consistently good (Kuemper, 35) or potentially great (Blackwood, 29) in Canada's No. 3 goalie spot?

There's no wrong answer. But logically, if there's a chance the third goalie will see the crease at the Olympics, Canada should pick the guy whose on-ice abilities give them the best opportunity to win. That's high-upside Blackwood.

Roster projection

Team USA

Do 'checkers' rule bottom of forward group?

Most of the United States' forward group is non-controversial. Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, Brady Tkachuk, Matthew Tkachuk, Jack Hughes, Matt Boldy, Jake Guentzel, Dylan Larkin, and Kyle Connor will likely fill the top nine.

Tage Thompson, author of the golden goal at the 2025 worlds and NHL leader in five-on-five goals over the past two seasons, is a virtual lock. That's 10.

The debate starts on the fourth line. Every country's manager sets out to build a squad capable of winning gold, and sometimes that process leads to picking players who fit a specific archetype. "If you can't check, it's probably not the tournament for you," Guerin told The Athletic's Pierre LeBrun in November. Translation: It's great that Alex DeBrincat and Cole Caufield are both on pace for 40 goals, but by no means are either guaranteed a spot.

Michael Russo is the most plugged-in reporter covering Team USA. He wrote last week that Brock Nelson, the do-everything center for the juggernaut Avalanche, is "likely" to make the cut. That brings the count to 11 forwards.

Vincent Trocheck is an ultracompetitive right-handed center who can take important draws and kill penalties. J.T. Miller, Trocheck's Rangers teammate, is having an awful season by his standards. However, he was a heart-and-soul member of the 4 Nations team and offers a mix of speed, intensity, puck skills, and positional versatility that Guerin surely feels is too valuable to pass on.

The 14th and final spot is where things get incredibly interesting. There are about 10 viable options - Caufield, Clayton Keller, Matthew Knies, and Alex Tuch among the healthy guys - but Jason Robertson has the most compelling case. The 6-foot-3 Stars winger is tied for most points among Americans.

Who rounds out talent-rich blue line?

The Americans are loaded on the back end. Quinn Hughes and Charlie McAvoy, a potential first pairing, were named to the team in June. Jaccob Slavin, Brock Faber, Zach Werenski, and Jake Sanderson are virtual locks.

Slavin, arguably the top shutdown defender in the sport, has missed all but five games this season due to multiple injuries. He's currently out week-to-week with an upper-body issue. While Guerin could choose to leave Slavin off the roster, it would make more sense to select the Hurricanes star and then find a replacement later if he's ultimately ruled out through the Games.

From there, two spots remain open for Seth Jones, Adam Fox, Jackson LaCombe, Noah Hanifin, and a handful of dark horses. Jones, who turned heads during the Panthers' Cup run, is a safe bet. He'd bring physicality and another right shot.

Rounding out the group is ... probably Fox, who's currently making his way back from injury. The cerebral two-way blue-liner has rebounded nicely after a down 2024-25, and USA coach Mike Sullivan is Fox's bench boss in New York.

LaCombe, whose stock has risen significantly over the past year, is undoubtedly Fox's biggest threat. The Ducks leader brings a bit of everything.

Roster projection

John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter/X (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email ([email protected]).