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Full betting preview, picks for the WGC-HSBC Champions

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The PGA Tour is in Shanghai, China this week for the World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions. It's the final leg of the Asian swing, and a number of the game's top players are in attendance for the premier event.

A field of only 78 players will take on Sheshan International Golf Club for the third straight no-cut event. Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, and defending champion Xander Schauffele headline the crop of competitors vying for the $1.845-million winner's payday.

The course

  • 7,264 yards, par 72
  • Bentgrass greens
  • All four par 3s are over 200 yards
  • Only a few players can reach the four par 5s in two shots
  • Historically favors longer hitters

Previous winners

2018: Xander Schauffele (-14)
2017: Justin Rose (-14)
2016: Hideki Matsuyama (-23)
2015: Russell Knox (-20)
2014: Bubba Watson (-11)
2013: Dustin Johnson (-24)

The favorites

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Here are the favorites' finishes at the last two HSBC Champions:

Player Odds 2018 2017
Rory McIlroy 6-1 54 DNP
Hideki Matsuyama 12-1 30 50
Xander Schauffele 14-1 1 46
Justin Rose 16-1 3 1
Paul Casey 22-1 16 11
Henrik Stenson 25-1 DNP 2
Tommy Fleetwood 25-1 7 20
Tony Finau 25-1 2 11

McIlroy enters the week as the deserving 6-1 favorite. He's finished inside the top six in four of his six starts in Shanghai and placed T-3 last week in Japan. Unfortunately, 6-1 is simply too short of a price to back.

Matsuyama and Schauffele are next on the list. Both have won the HSBC Champions within the last three years and could do it again. Matsuyama played the past two weeks, finishing runner-up to Tiger Woods and T-3 the week prior. Schauffele placed T-10 last week in his season debut. Betting both for roughly the same price as McIlroy is a tempting option.

Justin Rose and Tony Finau have been successful at this course, which suggests they could easily win this week. However, neither player has been performing well enough recently to indicate a trip to the winner's circle is coming.

As for Paul Casey, Henrik Stenson, and Tommy Fleetwood: They're all capable of winning, but any price below 30-1 for them is too short. Of the trio, only Casey has notched a PGA Tour win since 2017.

The next tier

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After the favorites, you'll find several players with a winning pedigree on the PGA and European tours.

Adam Scott (28-1), Patrick Reed (28-1), and Jordan Spieth (33-1) come to mind for PGA Tour fans. Bernd Wiesberger (33-1), Matt Wallace (40-1), and Matt Fitzpatrick (40-1) are familiar names for those following the European circuit.

However, it's Sungjae Im (28-1) who deserves your attention.

The 2019 Rookie of the Year continues to knock on the door of his first PGA Tour title. He finished T-3 last week at the Zozo Championship, firing rounds of 64 and 65 to climb up the leaderboard. The result marked his second top-five showing of the season.

There's also a group of players priced at 50-1 who are worth a look:

  • Danny Willett: Claimed the European Tour's flagship event four starts ago.
  • Corey Conners: One of the best drivers of the ball in the world, and he finished T-6 last week. He needs another strong result to impress International Team captain Ernie Els.
  • Francesco Molinari: Won the HSBC Champions in 2010 and showed signs of regaining his form three weeks ago in England.
  • Sergio Garcia: Finished inside the top 11 in three of his last four trips to Shanghai. Won four starts ago in the Netherlands.
  • Ian Poulter: Shot 64 and 66 to close his week in Japan. Enters after posting back-to-back top-16 showings.

The long shots

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It's difficult to envision a long shot taking home the hardware given the immense talent at the top of the field, but Russell Knox did win at 150-1 in 2015.

Phil Mickelson (80-1) and Bubba Watson (100-1) have both won the HSBC Champions in the past. They aren't viable options this week, but both players highlight the fact that a bomb-and-gouge approach can be successful here.

Kevin Kisner was fancied last week in Japan, but he failed to come through. His odds have dropped to 80-1 at a course where he finished runner-up in 2015. Three of his career top-five finishes have come at World Golf Championships.

European Tour stalwarts Matthias Schwab (100-1), Kurt Kitayama (100-1), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (125-1), and Victor Perez (150-1) are all playing brilliantly across the pond, but they're better top-five or top-10 options this week instead of outright winners.

Picks to win

Xander Schauffele (14-1)

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Schauffele is well-positioned to defend his title in China. The field this year compared to last season is much weaker without Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, or Jon Rahm teeing it up. The 26-year-old proved why he's one of the best in the world last week by showing up after six weeks off and finishing T-10.

He possesses the length off the tee, precision with his irons, and the ability to roll the rock as well as anyone. Schauffele is in line for another big season on the PGA Tour, and a win in China would be the perfect start.

Francesco Molinari (50-1)

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Backing Molinari at 50-1 is a pure value play. You aren't betting on him because of his recent form. Instead, you're looking at the field and realizing the Italian is still a top-tier talent this week despite not being priced like one.

When performing well, Molinari owns a world-class off-the-tee game, and he's deadly with his irons. He finished T-14 at the BMW PGA Championship three starts ago and won the 2010 HSBC Champions. Suggesting Fleetwood or Finau are twice as likely to win this week than Molinari doesn't add up.

Corey Conners (50-1)

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Conners flies under the radar during any discussion about the best drivers of the ball in the world. He finished top 10 in strokes gained: off-the-tee last year, and Conners ranks first so far this season.

His approach game regularly puts him in contention, but his putter often lets him down. However, backing the Canadian at 50-1 is worth the risk, especially after he put on a ball-striking clinic en route to a T-6 last week in Japan.

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