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Full betting preview, picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

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The PGA Tour heads to Monterey, California, this week for the annual AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

A field of 156 players, along with their semi-famous amateur partners, will take on three different courses: Pebble Beach, Monterey Peninsula, and Spyglass Hill. The players will rotate between the three venues before heading back to Pebble after the cut is made for Sunday's final round.

Dustin Johnson, Patrick Cantlay, Jason Day, and defending champion Phil Mickelson headline the professional contingent in attendance, with Wayne Gretzky, Peyton Manning, and Larry The Cable Guy among the notable amateurs participating.

There are two different competitions going on during the week at Pebble Beach. For obvious reasons, the professional-only event will be the focus of the betting preview. Not even oddsmakers are trying Gretzky's chances of breaking 90.

The courses

Pebble Beach Golf Links

  • 6,816 yards, par 72
  • Poa annua grass greens
  • Two rounds played here
  • Toughest of three in 2019

Monterey Peninsula Country Club

  • 6,958 yards, par 71
  • Poa annua grass greens
  • Five par 4s under 430 yards
  • Easiest in three-course rotation

Spyglass Hill Golf Course

  • 7,035 yards, par 72
  • Poa annua grass greens

Previous winners

2019: Phil Mickelson (-19)
2018: Ted Potter Jr. (-17)
2017: Jordan Spieth (-19)
2016: Vaughn Taylor (-17)
2015: Brandt Snedeker (-22)
2014: Jimmy Walker (-11)
2013: Brandt Snedeker (-19)

The favorites

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Player Odds Best Pebble Beach finish
Dustin Johnson 6-1 1st (2010)
Patrick Cantlay 10-1 T9 (2013)
Jason Day 18-1 T2 (2018)
Paul Casey 20-1 2nd (2019)
Brandt Snedeker 22-1 1st ('15 & '13) 
Matthew Fitzpatrick 22-1 MC (2019) 
Matt Kuchar 25-1 T22 (2019) 
Phil Mickelson 25-1 1st ('19 & '12) 
Branden Grace 28-1 T20 (2018) 

Dustin Johnson enters the week as the clear-cut favorite at 6-1. His history at this event is immaculate, with a victory and five other top-five showings since 2010. Plus, he came second at the Saudi International last week, proving he's in good form.

The only concern with Johnson is the long flight back from Saudi Arabia. He made the trip last year as well and went on to finish T-45 at Pebble. Even though no one would argue Johnson cannot win this week, 6-1 is a tad short under the circumstances. Let him get acclimated to American soil and target him next week at the Genesis Invitational.

Next up are Patrick Cantlay (10-1), Jason Day (18-1), and Paul Casey (20-1). Cantlay has the worst course history of this trio but is easily the second-best player in the field. Day's finished inside the top six in five of his last seven appearances at Pebble, while Casey was the runner-up to Phil Mickelson last season.

Speaking of Mickelson, he chalked up his first top-20 finish since the 2019 Masters with a T-3 in Saudi Arabia. However, he's extremely difficult to trust given his terrible run of form on the PGA Tour and easily avoidable at 25-1.

Brandt Snedeker is a two-time winner of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and deserves attention at 22-1. Prior to his missed cut at the Phoenix Open last week, he finished in a tie for third at Torrey Pines and came T-12 at the Sony Open.

Casey would get the nod if forced to choose from the top with Snedeker and Day following closely behind.

The next tier

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Player Odds Best Pebble Beach finish
Graeme McDowell 33-1 T7 (2014)
Viktor Hovland 33-1 N/A
Alex Noren 40-1 N/A
Cameron Champ 40-1 T28 (2019) 
Daniel Berger 40-1 T10 (2015) 
Jordan Spieth 40-1 1st (2017) 
Kevin Kisner 40-1 T10 (2017)

This tier includes some interesting names, and first is Jordan Spieth (40-1). The 2017 champion showed a glimpse of life last week in Phoenix, gaining strokes off the tee in both rounds before missing the cut. He also gained 1.4 strokes on approach shots during Round 2, but his putting let him down. It's not time to invest in Spieth yet, but store this result in the memory bank.

Then there is Graeme McDowell (33-1), who is coming off a victory at the Saudi International and won the 2010 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach. Had he finished second last week instead of first, his odds would be closer to 50-1, which makes his current price hard to justify.

Viktor Hovland (33-1) won the 2018 U.S. Amateur at Pebble Beach and was the low amateur at last year's U.S. Open, also at Pebble. If his ball-striking is on - and it typically is - he should have no issue overpowering all three courses in this week's rotation.

Alex Noren, Cameron Champ, Daniel Berger, and Kevin Kisner are all reasonably priced at 40-1, but you can find similarly skilled golfers a bit farther down the board.

The long shots

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Long shots definitely have a chance at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, as proven by Ted Potter Jr.'s and Vaughn Taylor's recent wins at 300-1 and 250-1, respectively.

But before dropping into triple-digit territory, Max Homa (50-1), Adam Hadwin (66-1), Scott Piercy (66-1) and Patrick Rodgers (80-1) are worth mentioning.

Homa is a California kid who's used to putting on poa annua greens. He finished T-10 at Pebble Beach last year and enters with back-to-back top-10 results.

Hadwin and Piercy are both fantastic ball-strikers who have found success at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am in the past. Rodgers is on the brink of breaking out after stringing two great results together at Torrey Pines (T-9) and TPC Scottsdale (T-16).

Here are some triple-digit odds worth consideration:

  • Jimmy Walker (125-1): Won the 2014 Pebble Beach Pro-Am, has gained strokes on approach shots in four straight events, and is a great putter on poa annua greens.
  • Brandon Wu (200-1): Made a charge at the Farmers Insurance Open and came T-35 at the 2019 U.S. Open as an amateur.
  • Doc Redman (200-1): Continues to prove he's one of the best young ball-strikers in the game.
  • J.J. Spaun (200-1): Thrives on shorter courses and was third in strokes gained: approach last week.
  • Tyler McCumber (300-1): Gained strokes tee-to-green in four straight events. He's a good putting week away from contending.

Picks to win

Paul Casey (20-1)

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Casey leads the field in ball-striking over the last 50 rounds and has gained strokes both off the tee and through approach shots in 12 straight tournaments where data was recorded. That trend should continue this week at three courses that reward Casey's style.

In two appearances at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he's finished T-8 and was the runner-up last year. The nature of the tournament (long rounds with amateur playing partners who might stink at golf) clearly doesn't affect Casey. He's worth backing at 20-1.

Adam Hadwin (66-1)

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Hadwin shook off the rust last week in Phoenix, where he gained strokes tee-to-green but uncharacteristically struggled with his putter. Expecting improvements in all areas is reasonable, which would give him a good chance to contend at Pebble Beach.

While it's not the same tournament, Hadwin's found a ton of success at the American Express, which is also a pro-am that's played on three different courses. Experience in these pro-am tournaments is important because they are far from a standard PGA Tour event.

Jimmy Walker (125-1)

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Walker is a former winner of this event and seemingly always plays it well. In addition to his 2014 victory, he's posted five other top-11 finishes in the last nine years and appears to be regaining the form that led to him a major championship trophy in 2016.

He's in on a run with his approach game that hasn't been seen from Walker since 2018. His erratic off-the-tee play will be mitigated slightly by the three short venues on deck, and poa annua greens are by far his preferred putting surface. You could do a lot worse for 125-1.

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