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Wells Fargo Championship: Who's next in line in the DMV?

Keyur Khamar / PGA TOUR / Getty

"I guess Jon Rahm is just going to win then?"

This was what many golf bettors were thinking after the prohibitive favorite went into Sunday's final round at the Mexico Open with a two-stroke lead over our 50-1 long shot, Cameron Champ. Sure enough, Rahm (+400) went to Mexico win hunting and snapped his modest drought since last year's U.S. Open. Proof that, if facing a weak enough field, a 4-1 favorite might be a valuable play after all.

For the second straight individual PGA Tour event, a star won without bringing his best to the golf course. We broke even thanks to a pair of plus-money winners, and were one shot away from a Gary Woodland top-20 finish and making it a positive weekend.

Three draws

Marc Leishman (45-1)

With Quail Hollow hosting the President's Cup this fall, the Wells Fargo Championship moves to TPC Potomac - the site of the Quicken Loans National in 2017 and 2018. Avenel has felt like home sweet home for Leishman, who has a residence in Virginia Beach.

The two most recent times Avenel hosted the PGA Tour, Leishman finished T13 and T5. The 38-year-old hasn't played since The Masters and should be fresh. At +225 for a top-20 finish, it's easy to back the Aussie for a strong showing in familiar conditions.

Sepp Straka (55-1)

Straka wasn't even on the PGA Tour the last time it rolled into Avenal Farm. However, he's finished in the top 20 in four of his last six individual stroke-play events. His two finishes outside of the standard - a missed cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational a week after his first career win, and a 30th-place in his Masters debut - are both excusable.

We'll look past a missed cut in the team event at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and his exit at the WGC-Match Play, and play him to get back on the leaderboard on Sunday with a top-20 finish at +260.

Anirban Lahiri (90-1)

With the lull in the schedule leading up to the heart of major championship season, there's room for some unlikely winners. While Lahiri won't likely lift the trophy, he's +350 to finish in the top 20, something he's done in three of his last four events. On top of that, Lahiri was tied for 13th in the 2018 event at TPC Potomac and could easily be in the mix again on Sunday.

Three fades

Rory McIlroy

McIlroy is the defending champion of the Wells Fargo Championship, but in name only. Last year's drought-snapping win was at Quail Hollow, and McIlroy didn't attend either of the previous events at Avenel Farm. At +800, he's the clear-cut favorite with Corey Conners the second choice at 20-1. While a lack of course history didn't prevent Rahm from winning in Mexico, there are too many others capable of winning.

Keith Mitchell

Mitchell's best result in 2021 was the Wells Fargo, and some of his best tournaments have come at Quail Hollow, but he missed the cut in 2018 in his only start at TPC Potomac. He's only played once since the WGC-Match Play and missed the cut in the pairs event two weeks ago. At +162, it's worth fading Mitchell for the weekend in a schedule spot where he's struggled in his short pro career.

Patrick Reed

He can blame it on not having access to the tournament director before each event, but Patrick Reed has shot at least one round of 73 or worse in seven straight stroke-play events. Naturally, when that happens in the first two rounds, you're more likely to miss the cut. At +150, it's worth taking a shot at Reed to have a bad round on Thursday or Friday.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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