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Byron Nelson betting: Birdies galore in Big D?

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Last weekend went a lot better for Max Homa than it did for us after the universally-liked golfer won at TPC Avenel. However, we'll take the +4.62 units of profit as we continue to build our golf betting bankroll. Anirban Lahiri (+350) quietly contended while Patrick Reed and Keith Mitchell missed the weekend as we thought they could.

Much of the weekend in Maryland was uncomfortably wet, perfect for the TOUR's mudders. Now they go to Dallas, where comfier conditions are likelier at TPC Craig Ranch - the site of a birdie-fest in 2021.

Power draws

Will Zalatoris (+2200)

K.H. Lee won this event last year with a final score of 25-under in the tournament's first year at Craig Ranch. It's safe to say that going low will be the order of this weekend.

On a course where putting doesn't seem too tricky, Zalatoris can use his ball-striking to rack up birdies at a venue he's played a ton. He's ranked second this season in strokes gained: approach and strokes gained: tee-to-green.

With six top 10s in his last nine events, the resident Texan is +130 to finish in the top 20. That gives plenty of cushion should the putter not be working, and it's still a plus-money price.

Alex Noren (+6600)

The Swede who went to Oklahoma State is familiar with golf in Big 12 country. Noren is also playing well in 2022 with four top 20s in his last seven events.

He sat comfortably in the top 20 at last year's tournament before posting a 74 in the final round that left him on the outside looking in at a winning result. We'll take Noren to continue his good play at +280 for a top 20.

Chez Reavie (200-1) / Brian Stuard (250-1)

Lee is 125-1 to defend his title this week. Rather than expect southwest lightning to strike a second time, let's give out a 2-for-1 on long shots to contend.

Reavie is this tournament's field leader in strokes gained: approach in their last 36 rounds. The diminutive ball-striker is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes, so why not make it three in a row? With many of the stars in the field looking ahead to the PGA Championship at Southern Hills, Reavie can take advantage of the flat greens to rack up birdies and cash a +600 win for another top 20.

Stuard missed the cut last week after showing quite a bit of form since the calendar turned to 2022. He's among the leaders in the field in strokes gained: approach in his last 36 rounds, which has helped him to five top-25 finishes in his previous 10 starts. Stuard shot in the 60s in each of his first three rounds of last year's Byron Nelson, so the value is too good to pass up at +650 to finish in the top 20.

Soft fades

Jordan Spieth

Much to even his surprise, Spieth went out and won the Heritage the last time he was on this list. He said afterward that he was victorious despite playing "without a putter" all week. Maybe he's fixed those issues, but Spieth will need more confidence than that to score in the 20-unders. And that's what he needs to do to win. The Dallas native will get attention as a local play, but that, along with the recent win, has depressed his value.

Brooks Koepka

A week before a major is not the time to bet on Koepka to win. Notorious for showing up to work on his game in advance of the tournaments he really cares about, Koepka excels on tougher courses. He can easily shoot 12-under over four rounds, but he's not likely to go super low in what amounts to a tune-up on the way to Oklahoma. He missed the cut last year and is +200 to do so again.

Matthew Wolff

It's impossible not to cheer for Wolff as he tries to get his career back on track, but he admitted after recording a 65 in the first round of the Wells Fargo Championship that winning is the last thing on his mind. At +125 to miss the cut, it's probably prudent to bet him to do so. We know he'll have to be his old birdie-making self to get a chance to play over the weekend.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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