How realistic is a Verstappen 2025 F1 championship?

For most of the summer, there was more talk about who Max Verstappen would relinquish his title to - Oscar Piastri or Lando Norris - than if he would remain world champion.

However, Verstappen had other plans. It's almost as if he just decided one day that he wouldn't go down without a fight. He's back in the mix and a legitimate contender for the drivers' championship again.

Verstappen trailed Piastri by as much as 104 points after the Dutch Grand Prix, but he's reduced his deficit to 40 after winning three of the last four races. An achievement that once seemed improbable now looks to be within striking distance with five races and two sprints remaining.

What would it really take for Verstappen to become a five-time champion?

Below, we project the final result of the title race by using the percentage of points scored in recent races and applying the trend to the 141 points still available across the final five races and two sprints.

The above simulations produce two conclusions. If Verstappen maintains his dominant form until the end of the season while the McLaren drivers continue to trip over themselves, then the championship will stay Dutch. But if Piastri can rediscover even a fraction of his edge from earlier this summer, the No. 1 will likely come off the Red Bull car.

Verstappen winning the drivers' championship is going to require something almost unthinkable. At the same time, winning just one race - let alone three of four - was inconceivable even to Verstappen himself this summer. And the concept of a three-way title fight was pure fiction until one driver forced his way back into the conversation despite the odds.