26 bold predictions for 2026 F1 season

The Formula 1 grid has the potential to be flipped upside down in 2026 thanks to a massive set of regulation changes. It's anyone's guess how the season will play out.

With that in mind, we're offering 26 bold predictions for Formula 1's upcoming season. These range from "that's certainly possible" territory to "preposterous to even say." But let's get wild before the cars actually touch the track.

Mercedes-powered drivers win 20 or more races

There are already whispers that Mercedes could start the upcoming regulations with the best power unit. After its dominance in 2014 - the last time the engine regulations were overhauled - there's little reason to doubt Mercedes. That leads to drivers powered by Mercedes engines winning at least 20 of the 24 races.

Norris repeats as world champion

Surely that means a Mercedes pilot takes the drivers' title? Not quite. In a time where it's no longer unusual for a customer to beat an engine supplier, the era of Lando Norris continues for at least one more year.

Russell finishes as runner-up

George Russell, who feels like an overwhelming early favorite, has his best season to date, winning more races in 2026 than he has in his entire career so far (5). However, like many other past champions, he falls just short in his first true title bid.

One engine manufacturer gets it very wrong

Any time regulations change, there is bound to be at least one leading force and one massive disappointment. If Mercedes is the leading force, that naturally leaves one of Red Bull/Ford, Ferrari, Audi, or Honda to come out of the gates with an extremely uncompetitive engine package.

Red Bull's power unit surprises

Red Bull and Ford's power unit won't be the worst on the grid. In fact, the collaboration's debut project won't be anywhere near the back of the pack. With Ford's aid and a staff comprised of many ex-Mercedes and Honda employees, Red Bull's in-house power unit exceeds the paddock's expectations.

Verstappen wins 2 races

So, Red Bull's power unit was a relative success. But it's still not enough for Max Verstappen to continue his streak and finish as F1's leader in wins for a sixth consecutive year. The Dutch driver will be happy to give Red Bull a couple of wins.

Red Bull's second seat curse ends

Isack Hadjar will be remembered as the driver who vanquished the grim reaper known as Red Bull's second seat. Thanks to new regulations and a car that is still at the beginning of its development cycle, Hadjar is able to come to grips with his Red Bull, and his confidence never falters. Sure, he's not neck and neck with Verstappen, but Red Bull finally has the young No. 2 driver it has been trying for so long to find.

Ferrari goes winless again

After quickly bailing on its woeful 2025 car, Ferrari's dreams for 2026 quickly become nightmares as it finds itself comfortably behind the front-runners again. Lewis Hamilton's hopes of an eighth world title quickly go up in red smoke while Charles Leclerc finally loses his smile.

Bortoleto gets Audi's first podium

Audi endures some choppy waters out of the gate in its debut season, but backed by its status as a full works team, the German manufacturer ends on a high with a late-season podium. And the first podium in Audi's history won't go to seasoned veteran Nico Hulkenberg, but instead to the young Gabriel Bortoleto, who clearly becomes the team's leading driver in 2026.

Williams finishes top 3 in constructors' championship

With a strong Mercedes power unit and a factory that is seemingly only getting better, Williams finishes third in the constructors' standings for the first time since 2015. Even more remarkable, the team finishes with multiple wins and 10-plus podiums for the first time since 2003.

Alpine gets multiple podiums, at least 1 race win

Alpine's decision to start using Mercedes power units looks like an ingenious move. The French team goes from placing last in 2025 to being an occasional podium finisher and race winner in 2026. Pierre Gasly gets the victory in a chaotic race where other front-runners are eliminated, while the gamble on Franco Colapinto finally starts to show signs of return.

The era of unreliability returns

It felt like F1 races had become all too static recently. Well, prepare for that to change. New power units typically mean more problems. More problems mean more retirements. More retirements mean being on the edge of your seat in each race until your driver takes the checkered flag and crosses the finish line.

At least 15 drivers step on podium

The potential for mechanical retirements to return in droves could spice up the results for more than a few races. Sprinkle in the fact that F1 is always due for a few unexpected podiums and there should be more surprises than usual. F1 hasn't had 15 different drivers step on the podium in a single season since 1997, but 2026 brings the right amount of chaos to end that drought.

Another loophole is discovered

Rumours about Mercedes and possibly Red Bull exploiting a loophole when it comes to the compression ratio of the internal combustion engine are running rampant. But it's still only January, so don't be shocked when another grey area in the rulebook is the topic of speculation in the coming months.

3 drivers get first wins

Only 115 drivers have won a race in F1 history. By the end of 2026, that number increases to 118 as Kimi Antonelli, Hadjar, and Alex Albon celebrate their maiden victories.

Alonso wins a race

For the first time since the 2013 Spanish GP, Fernando Alonso is a race winner. The Aston Martin driver breaks the F1 record for longest span between victories and stands on the top step of the podium once again. Alongside him on the podium is a representative from Honda. After the engine manufacturer caused the veteran much frustration from 2015 to 2017, Honda pays back Alonso in a big way in 2026.

Max leaves Red Bull to focus on other racing series

The 2026 silly season has all the ingredients to be the most chaotic in recent memory. Let's open the market with perhaps our boldest prediction: Verstappen doesn't stay at Red Bull, but he's not headed to Mercedes either. Frustrated by the lack of pure racing under F1's new regulations, Verstappen officially begins his full-time endurance racing career in 2027.

Piastri jumps to Red Bull

The domino effect begins following Verstappen's departure. Piastri, accepting that Norris' status as a world champion solidifies him as McLaren's No. 1 asset, decides it's time to find a team that will build solely around him. Red Bull, now in need of a top driver, pays handsomely to get a proven commodity like Piastri from McLaren. Who better to iron out this move than Piastri's current manager and former Red Bull driver Mark Webber?

Hamilton retires

Lewis Hamilton finds better form in 2026, but it's still not quite up to the seven-time champion's usual standards. With Ferrari nowhere near title contention, Hamilton elects to ride into the sunset, ending the most decorated career in F1 history.

Alonso decides to return for 2027

Having tasted victory again and not wanting his own retirement to be overshadowed by Hamilton's, Alonso announces he'll be back for his final season in 2027.

Leclerc leaves Ferrari for Mercedes

Hamilton isn't the only driver leaving Ferrari. In one of the biggest surprises in recent memory, Leclerc decides to depart the Scuderia after eight seasons. Facing the prospect of never tasting a championship, Leclerc opts for a Mercedes power unit and joins the Silver Arrows. Together, the Monegasque driver and Russell form F1's most electric lineup since Hamilton and Nico Rosberg a decade ago.

Antonelli teams with Bearman at Ferrari

The Scuderia had a plan for Hamilton's exit with Oliver Bearman waiting in the wings. However, Ferrari needs something massive to replace Leclerc, who was the heart and soul of the team. Few Mercedes-powered drivers want to abandon the competitive edge they have, but Antonelli returning to his homeland is the kind of swing that makes sense for both the Italian teenager and Ferrari. Selling the potential of an Italian driver ending Ferrari's title drought will have the Tifosi hooked for the foreseeable future.

Sainz heads back to McLaren

The always opportunistic Carlos Sainz sees an opportunity to move up the pecking order with an opening at McLaren. After an enjoyable two-year stay with Williams, the Spaniard returns to the papaya squad to team up with Norris once again.

Bottas, Perez give Cadillac exactly what it needs

Cadillac's debut season won't grab many headlines as the team endures a massive learning curve. However, in a low-expectation environment, Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Perez get the redemption they were seeking by each racking up five-plus points finishes. Their success does have an unintended consequence, though, putting the team in a tough spot when deciding which veteran to release after 2026 to make way for former IndyCar star Colton Herta.

Lindblad looks like the next big thing

Red Bull is no stranger to bold decisions with its young drivers. Arvid Lindblad's promotion to F1 is the latest gamble. However, this one pays off handsomely as it doesn't take long for the 18-year-old to get the better of Racing Bulls teammate Liam Lawson. It won't be long before Lindblad finds his way to the main team, either.

Horner returns to F1

Do you hear that? That's the sound of chicanery returning to the paddock. Christian Horner makes his return to F1 in 2026 by acquiring a significant stake in Alpine, becoming its team principal in the process.

Daniel Valente is theScore's lead Formula 1 writer. Follow Daniel on X at @F1GuyDan.