5 MLB teams that will take a step back in 2025

A new season brings new hope, but not every team will take a step forward in 2025. After looking at five clubs that should improve this year, we turn our attention to five teams that are likely to experience regression.

Cleveland Guardians

Wins in 2024: 92
PECOTA projected wins in 2025: 80

The Guardians won 92 games and advanced to the ALCS under first-year manager Stephen Vogt last season thanks to the continued strong play of José Ramírez and an elite bullpen.

Replicating similar success in 2025 will be tough after Cleveland traded one of its top run producers Josh Naylor and elite defender Andrés Giménez.

Naylor was the only player on the Guardians - aside from Ramírez - to hit more than 14 home runs and generate more than 63 RBIs, while Giménez won his third consecutive Gold Glove. Cleveland is hoping the trio of aging veteran Carlos Santana, along with youngsters Kyle Manzardo and Gabriel Arias, will replace the lost production and defense.

The biggest factor, however, could be the ever-improving AL Central, where the Guardians are slated to play the Tigers, Royals, and Twins 39 times. While the Guardians had the Twins' number last season (10-3), they were a combined 12-14 against Kansas City and Detroit.

Houston Astros

Wins in 2024: 88
PECOTA projected wins in 2025: 88

The Astros' reign of dominance in the AL West looks to finally be coming to an end. Houston looks far different entering 2025 after trading star outfielder Kyle Tucker and not re-signing third baseman Alex Bregman.

Tucker and Bregman were integral parts of an Astros club that made eight straight playoff appearances and seven consecutive trips to the ALCS, but there are other concerns as well.

Houston's outfield looked so shaky after the Tucker trade that longtime second baseman Jose Altuve has since been moved into left field as a regular. His potential replacement at second, Brendan Rodgers, doesn't offer much with the bat and should be a bench player. Offseason additions Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes were nice pick-ups, but Houston's lineup isn't the behemoth it once was, even with them coming aboard.

In addition to potential lineup concerns, the starting rotation has question marks after Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown, and the bullpen doesn't look as scary as it used to beyond Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu, and Tayler Scott.

While PECOTA projects Houston to win as many games as last season, we believe that's a difficult benchmark to reach.

Milwaukee Brewers

Wins in 2024: 93
PECOTA projected wins in 2025: 79

The Brewers surprised in 2024, winning 93 games and a division title after preseason prognosticators didn't give them much of a chance to do well. It's more of the same entering 2025 after Milwaukee lost two major stars and made no significant moves in free agency.

Willy Adames is gone. His loss is a huge sting to the lineup on both sides of the ball and in the clubhouse, but it's also forced the Brewers to shift Joey Ortiz to a less familiar position for him at shortstop, while rolling the dice at the hot corner with unproven Oliver Dunn.

Meanwhile, a Brewers' bullpen that once featured Hader and Devin Williams will rely on Trevor Megill as the closer and a bunch of mostly unknowns in other roles, and a rotation that finished near the bottom of the NL in FIP last season didn't make any serious upgrades.

Seattle Mariners

Wins in 2024: 85
PECOTA projected wins in 2025: 85

The Mariners missed the playoffs by one game last season despite owning one of the best starting rotations in baseball. Yet, their front office did little to address their areas of need this winter.

Seattle ranked 21st in runs and second-to-last in batting average in 2024, but adding Donovan Solano - who projects more as a bench bat - and re-signing Jorge Polanco were their biggest moves.

Meanwhile, the bullpen, which ranked near the bottom of the AL in win probability added and fWAR last season, leaves much to be desired beyond closer Andrés Munoz.

Playing improved rosters of the Rangers, Athletics, and Angels a combined 35 times will also be a major factor.

St. Louis Cardinals

Wins in 2024: 83
PECOTA projected wins in 2025: 77

It's an unfamiliar term for the Cardinals, but a rebuild is underway in St. Louis.

Young players such as Masyn Winn, Jordan Walker, and Nolan Gorman are going to get significant playing time with the direction of the club changing during president of baseball operations John Mozeliak's final season with the franchise.

Nolan Arenado is still on the team despite the front office's best attempts at trading him, but his tenure in St. Louis likely won't last beyond the trade deadline. The same could be said for fellow veterans Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, and Ryan Helsley.

And all of this comes with the Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, and Pittsburgh Pirates looking better amid a wide-open race for the NL Central crown.