Sasaki's selection: Breaking down the Japanese ace's 3 finalists

The Roki Sasaki sweepstakes are down to three finalists - the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, and Toronto Blue Jays. We won't have to wait much longer to see where Sasaki signs, as he's eligible to pick a team as early as Wednesday, the first day of the 2025 international amateur signing window, and has until Jan. 23 to ink a deal in the majors.

Before his decision is announced, let's dive into the pros and cons of all three finalists.

Dodgers

The Dodgers are once again in the mix for a top free agent. It's no surprise given the organization's 12-year run of success. To many observers, they're the favorite. But is L.A. the right fit for Sasaki?

Pros

Let's get the obvious out of the way - it's the Dodgers. They're more than just the reigning World Series champions. This team is a star-studded machine. Over the last 12 seasons, the Dodgers won 11 division titles (and missed the 12th by one game), four pennants, and two championships. They're in a class of their own at the major-league level. Who wouldn't want to join them?

The Dodgers also offer committed ownership that will stop at nothing to field a winner and have a world-class player development system that continues to churn out impact prospects. Sasaki could become an even better pitcher under the Dodgers. Furthermore, the franchise boasts one of the sport's most iconic uniforms and offers a world-famous venue in a great city. And, as a bonus, he could make his big-league debut back home when the Dodgers open their 2025 season in Tokyo.

Sasaki can also find comfort in the clubhouse. The Dodgers' imprint in Japan is second to none, and he already has relationships with Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Having multiple people that speak his language would ease the transition of joining a new league and country.

Cons

Money is clearly not at the front of Sasaki's mind. He chose to forgo a potentially bigger payday at age 25 by coming over now. But of the three finalists, the Dodgers can only offer him a maximum of $8.1 million, the lowest maximum bonus among the three finalists. It's not the biggest factor going against L.A., but it's worth noting.

Then there's the injury factor. For all of their success developing pitchers, the Dodgers simply can't keep them healthy. Nearly every one of their most important starting pitchers last season, plus several of their prized youngsters, missed some or all of 2024 with injuries. Some of those injuries were shoulder and elbow ailments. Sasaki battled through an elbow issue in NPB last year, and he's a fragile young pitcher. Does he really want that kind of track record hanging over his head as a rookie?

L.A. also has a ton of starting pitchers. That might allow the team to limit Sasaki's innings and protect his arm, but it would come at the cost of experience. He'd also be joining a fully developed team with many established stars, including several big-name Japanese players that dwarf Sasaki's star power back home. With the Dodgers, he could merely be a cog in a well-oiled machine as opposed to his own unique brand of star elsewhere. If he wants the challenge of building something himself without the intense spotlight that comes with life in Los Angeles, this team might not be for him.

Padres

The Padres have been under the Dodgers' shadow for a while. The rivalry has blossomed since a postseason meeting in 2020, and the Dodgers have two World Series titles in that span, while the Padres are yet to punch a ticket to the Fall Classic. Luring Sasaki away from Los Angeles could shift momentum in the rivalry and turn the animosity up to 11.

Pros

San Diego is one of the most consistently underrated cities in the U.S., offering all the benefits of Southern California life without the spotlight and traffic of Los Angeles. Sasaki seems to be a quieter personality, and this should be a major selling point.

But while the Padres are a smaller-market team, they've been aggressive in their attempts to build a winner of late and have shown a willingness to spend. They've reached the playoffs three times this decade, have a core group of stars locked up long term, and are right in the middle of their competitive window. San Diego also has a great development program and is known for getting the best out of its prospects, especially pitchers. Pitching at friendly Petco Park also has to be a positive, as is the chance to be in the same rotation as Yu Darvish, his friend and idol.

While there's pressure to win now in San Diego, it's not a major media market. Sasaki could have the best of both worlds - a winning location coupled with anonymity - if he chooses San Diego.

Cons

As we already mentioned, the Dodgers have owned the NL West. The Padres, meanwhile, last claimed a division crown in 2006. That level of dominance narrows San Diego's path to the postseason, along with the chance for Sasaki to thrive under the bright lights of October and replicate Yamamoto's rookie season.

The Padres are also dealing with serious ownership uncertainty, as the widow of former owner Peter Seidler is filing a lawsuit against two of his brothers for control of the club. San Diego increased its spending in the final years Peter owned the franchise, and it's fair to wonder if that spending will be impacted if the ownership squabble isn't resolved in a timely fashion.

Blue Jays

The Blue Jays are a surprising finalist. They're coming off their first season in the AL East basement in over a decade. What can the franchise offer a pitcher of Sasaki's caliber?

Pros

If Sasaki's looking to forge his own path, there's no better opportunity than Toronto. We hear it all the time - the Blue Jays are the only MLB team that represents an entire country. Some might roll their eyes at that, but a number of players that signed with the club in recent years acknowledged a sense of pride.

Blue Jays pitching coach Pete Walker could be an intriguing X-factor as the team tries to sell Sasaki on the merits of joining them. Walker boasts a number of high-profile success stories in which he helped a pitcher unlock another level. Robbie Ray won the 2021 AL Cy Young in Toronto, and Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah were finalists for the award in recent years.

Sasaki would also benefit from pitching in front of one of, if not the best, defensive clubs in baseball. The Blue Jays have won consecutive AL team Gold Glove awards and have two of the best defenders at their respective positions in center fielder Daulton Varsho and second baseman Andrés Giménez. That level of defensive insulation could be reassuring to Sasaki if he struggles to adjust during the huge transition from Japan to North America.

Sasaki should feel relatively confident that ownership will continue to spend in an effort to field a competitive team. The Blue Jays are consistently a top-10 payroll team in baseball, and they'll need to continue spending to keep pace in the AL East.

Cons

The Blue Jays own a concerning track record when it comes to developing pitchers and keeping them healthy. The club was hit by a rash of serious elbow or arm injuries to young hurlers over the past few years. Manoah, Ricky Tiedemann, Brandon Barriera, and Landon Maroudis all sustained serious injuries that required surgery within the last year, and that should be a point of concern for a pitcher like Sasaki, who's only eclipsed 100 innings twice in his young career. The track record of homegrown pitching success stories under Ross Atkins have been few and far between.

Sasaki and his representatives will likely have big questions about the roster in Toronto moving forward. The Blue Jays face the possibility of starting the 2026 season without both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, and the farm system is lacking in impact talent, leaving the franchise in a precarious position. It's hard to see Sasaki signing up for that level of uncertainty without some level of assurance for the Blue Jays' front office that alternatives will be lined up to ensure the team remains competitive.

Sasaki might also wonder about pitching in the AL East. The Yankees never accept losing, the Red Sox are on the upswing, and the Orioles are loaded with homegrown offensive talent. Throw in the Rays and their ability to put pressure on opposing pitchers, and it's easy to see why pitching in the AL East isn't the most appealing scenario.