What are the odds Blue Jays extend Vladdy before Opening Day?
To say the Toronto Blue Jays' front office is under a microscope this offseason would be an understatement. The team is coming off a disappointing campaign and is running out of time to capitalize on its young core.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the face of the franchise and is entering the final year of his current contract. The 25-year-old slugger recently avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $28.5-million salary for the 2025 season, but getting a new deal done before Opening Day should remain the organization's No. 1 priority.
Unfortunately for Blue Jays fans, oddsmakers do not like Toronto's chances of extending Guerrero before the season starts. His odds of signing a new contract before March 27 are +400 (20% implied probability) at theScore Bet.
Many players don't want to negotiate contracts during the season, and Guerrero may be one of those players, meaning if a deal doesn't get done before the season starts, there's a good chance he's heading toward free agency in 2025.
Given the recent free-agent contracts handed out to Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto - both at least $700 million total - it's in the Blue Jays' best interest to not let their best player hit the open market.
The Blue Jays have money to spend, though. They reportedly placed second in the Ohtani sweepstakes last year and narrowly missed out when Soto tested free agency this offseason. They also seem to be interested in every big-name free agent available.
Paying up to keep Guerrero north of the border seems like a no-brainer.
The "always a bridesmaid, never a bride" reputation is getting tiresome for Blue Jays fans, and president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins can earn back a bit of trust by agreeing to a long-term deal with Guerrero before the first pitch. And if they add another bat to a lineup - perhaps Alex Bregman or Pete Alonso - not only will that make Guerrero happy he stayed, but it will give Jays fans something to be excited about for the upcoming year.