MLB fantasy: 10 players to avoid

Nothing will sink your fantasy baseball team faster than some big swings and misses in the early rounds. Avoiding these crucial strikeouts in your draft comes down to avoiding players with red flags.

From stars in decline to those coming off major injuries, here are ten names you're better off letting your league-mates draft this year.

Average draft positions are from FantasyPros as of March 8.

Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves - OF (ADP: 27)

It's easy to believe you're getting a fantasy superstar at a discount when looking at Acuña in drafts. However, there's a lot of risk here at an ADP where other very good players can be had without so much uncertainty. The 2023 NL MVP isn't slated to be back until May from his second ACL surgery in four years. How will he look with two surgically repaired knees? The 27-year-old already said he will take it easy on the basepaths when he returns, which means fewer stolen bases. His power numbers will likely be impacted as well - after returning from his first procedure, he went deep 15 times with a .764 OPS over 119 games in 2022.

Jacob deGrom, Rangers - SP (ADP: 56)

This ADP feels like it's a reflection of the pitcher deGrom was seven years ago, not in 2025. The two-time NL Cy Young winner hasn't logged more than 92 innings in a season since 2019, and he's coming back from Tommy John surgery entering his age-37 campaign. It's hard to imagine he'll deliver 130-150 innings based on his injury history. The right-hander obviously has the talent to bounce back, but there are much safer options to draft in the fifth or sixth round.

Josh Hader, Astros - RP (ADP: 63)

Hader had a weird 2024. He struck out a ridiculous 105 batters in 71 innings with a microscopic 0.96 WHIP but also pitched to a disappointing 3.80 ERA (104 ERA+) and 3.50 FIP. The problem was that the hits Hader did allow last year were absolutely crushed. He gave up 12 home runs, his second most in a season, while grading in the 9th percentile in opponent barrel rate. His hard-contact issue was exacerbated by walking 9% of the batters he faced and posting a poor 29.9% ground-ball rate. Hader is still good, but he could easily give up too many runs to be worth his ADP.

Luis Robert Jr., White Sox - OF (ADP: 89)

Our list of must-have hitters prioritized finding great bats in good lineups, and Robert is a flawed hitter on a terrible team. He followed up a career year in 2023 with an all-around bad 2024, homering just 14 times in 100 games while striking out at a 33.2% clip. While he's certainly better than what he showed last season, his upside is capped unless he's traded to a more competitive club. He's unlikely to score a lot of runs or have many opportunities to drive them in on the White Sox. Robert was pressing last year, and it's easy to imagine him doing it again in 2025.

Tyler Glasnow, Dodgers - SP (ADP: 91)

Glasnow recorded a career-high 134 innings in his ninth season but didn't pitch again last year after an elbow injury sidelined him in mid-August. The 2024 campaign marked just the third time he's logged over 100 innings. The 31-year-old is a top starter when he's healthy, authoring a 3.16 ERA with 12.2 K/9 over the last six seasons, but his track record proves he can't stay on the field, and now he's at an age where injuries are even more likely. The Dodgers also have lots of depth starters. Don't be surprised if the team takes it easy on Glasnow during the regular season to keep him fresh for the playoffs.

Mike Trout, Angels - OF (ADP: 97)

It's officially time to give up the dream that Trout will ever be a fantasy stud again. The three-time AL MVP appeared in a combined 266 games over the last four years, missing time due to a calf strain, back inflammation, broken hamate bone, and torn meniscus. As a result, he's now projected to go in the ninth or 10th round of drafts heading into his age-33 season. Trout's otherworldly production has also declined: He collected 28 homers, 58 RBIs, and 71 runs to go along with an .861 OPS over a combined 111 games in the last two years. A move to right field in 2025 to preserve his body might be the only reason to believe in a potential renaissance for the future Hall of Famer.

Carlos Rodón, Yankees - SP (ADP: 133)

The Yankees version of Rodón has hardly been the ace he was a few seasons ago. He was better in 2024 after a disastrous 2023, but his inability to limit hard contact implies more regression. He ranked in the fourth percentile for opponent barrel rate (11%), the eighth percentile in ground-ball percentage (34.6%), and the 11th percentile for average exit velocity (90.4 mph). These figures would be worrisome for anyone, but they're especially concerning for a 32-year-old pitching in Yankee Stadium against loaded AL East lineups. The strikeouts aren't worth the risk of blow-up starts.

Xander Bogaerts, Padres - 2B (ADP: 153)

Many questioned how Bogaerts' bat would age in San Diego when he signed there. The answer seems to be: not well. He endured arguably the worst season of his career in 2024 as a 31-year-old, ranking in the 28th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and bat speed. To his credit, he posted a 117 OPS+ in 2023 but hasn't reached 20 home runs or 60 RBIs since joining the Padres. As many anticipated, his power production is eroding with age. Bogaerts is simply past his prime and can no longer be trusted to hit like an All-Star.

Nolan Arenado, Cardinals - 3B (ADP: 201)

Arenado looks like another aging star whose name is more attractive then his production. The eight-time All-Star is coming off his worst season since his 2013 rookie campaign. What's even more concerning are the underlying metrics: The 33-year-old finished in the ninth percentile for average exit velocity, the sixth percentile in barrel rate, and the 12th percentile for hard-hit percentage, according to Baseball Savant. An offseason trade could've helped shape a better narrative around 2025, but for now, he'll play for the rebuilding Cardinals, which means fewer chances to do damage in a weaker lineup.

Gleyber Torres, Tigers - 2B (ADP: 208)

Torres played half his games in Yankee Stadium last year and still only hit 15 home runs with a .378 slugging percentage. It's hard to see him improving upon those numbers as a Detroit Tiger in Comerica Park, one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in baseball. Things don't look much better for Torres under the hood: He only hit the ball hard 23% of the time with a subpar 70.2-mph average bat speed in 2024. Everything suggests his numbers will decline further now that he doesn't have a short porch in right field helping turn lazy fly balls into home runs.