MLB MVP race: Can anyone dethrone Ohtani or Judge?

Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge have already cemented themselves as all-time greats, and each has the opportunity to accomplish another historic feat this season. Ohtani is shooting for his fourth consecutive MVP trophy and fifth overall. Only Barry Bonds won four straight MVPs, doing so from 2001-04 with the San Francisco Giants. Ohtani's four total MVPs are second all time behind Bonds' seven.

Judge has won three MVPs, including the 2024 and 2025 awards, and has an opportunity to join Ohtani and Bonds as the only players with at least four. The Yankees captain is one of 11 players who's won the award three times.

While there have been worthy competitors the last couple of seasons, Ohtani's and Judge's dominance in their respective leagues has separated them from the field. As the MLB season begins this week, who has the best chance to dethrone them?

AL MVP odds

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Shortstops are enduring an MVP drought. The last shortstop to win the award in either league was Jimmy Rollins in 2007, but he could finally get a successor this season. Bobby Witt Jr. has the second-best odds to win the AL MVP. He finished in the top four in voting the last two seasons despite 2025 being a down year by his standards.

Cal Raleigh was the AL runner-up after blasting an MLB-leading 60 homers, seven more than Judge. However, in other metrics, he was way behind Judge, who led the American League in OPS, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage. As impressive as Raleigh was, it's unreasonable to expect another monstrous year from him after he slugged 26 more homers than he had in any other campaign.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is consistently in the MVP mix and capable of dethroning Judge. He ranked in the AL's top 10 in hits, batting average, and on-base percentage. Although Judge is on a different level than the rest of the American League, it's so rare for anyone to win three straight MVPs that it might be worth looking elsewhere.

NL MVP odds

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During spring training, Juan Soto said of Ohtani's MVP dominance: "He better keep doing what he's doing, because I'm coming."

Soto has finished in the top 10 in MVP voting six times. He's knocking on the door of an MVP campaign. The only problem is that his rival is perhaps the greatest talent in baseball history.

It's practically unheard of for a player to enter a season with minus odds to win the MVP. Even last year, Ohtani opened the season as a +175 favorite. But Ohtani's two-way prowess simply makes this award unfair for other contenders.

Ohtani tops the league in nearly every batting statistic - counting stats like hits and runs as well as measures like OPS and slugging percentage. Still, Soto and other challengers would have a chance to dethrone Ohtani if they were only contending with his exceptional hitting. The Mets star did post the National League's best on-base percentage last season.

But Ohtani is also an elite pitcher, which makes him one of the most unique players of all time and inspires MVP voters to continue to reward him.

Even if Soto's hitting numbers end up being comparable to Ohtani's, voters will cite Ohtani's pitching as a reason the Dodgers superstar is more valuable. It'll be hard for Soto to build a case unless he posts historic numbers across the board. Ohtani will likely be NL MVP for a fourth straight time in 2026, and Soto might ultimately go down as one of the all-time greats who never took home the award.

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