The Knicks and Nuggets stole their respective Game 1s on Monday as 9-plus point underdogs. The Th...

<p>The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/3" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/3">Knicks</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/26" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/26">Nuggets</a> stole their respective Game 1s on Monday as 9-plus point underdogs. The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/28" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/28">Thunder</a> (+170) and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/1" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/1">Celtics</a> (+210) remain the favorites to win the championship, but their series and title odds took a hit after shocking collapses. The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/9" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/9">Pacers</a> also beat the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/7" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/7">Cavaliers</a> in Game 1 as huge underdogs. So far, the series underdog has won every second-round Game 1. How much has it impacted the series prices, and what does it mean for the trailing teams? Let's dive in.</p><h3>Knicks 1-0 vs. Celtics</h3><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Series odds before Game 1</th>
<th>After Game 1</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Celtics -900</td>
<td>Celtics -350</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Knicks +500</td>
<td>Knicks +280</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p>When a team lives by the three, it can also die by it. In Game 1, the Celtics attempted and missed the most threes in playoff history, launching 60 and connecting on only 15.</p><p>Theoretically, that projects well for the Celtics and poorly for the Knicks. Boston, which led the NBA in 3-point makes, shouldn't shoot that badly from distance again.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>While attempting 37 of their final 49 shots from three isn't exactly a healthy shot diet, the Celtics' problem isn't the 3-point volume; it's how they're generating threes.</p><p>Boston insists on shooting more threes than any team in league history. The Celtics' personnel, featuring five shooters and many perimeter players who can exploit mismatches, creates a successful approach. Their 3-point philosophy works when they generate quality shots by getting in the paint, putting two defenders on the ball, and driving and kicking to force the defense into rotation.</p><p>There were plenty of uncontested catch-and-shoot threes that Boston uncharacteristically bricked in Game 1, but many were contested, dreadful shot attempts out of isolations, especially in the final minutes. There were too many late-game possessions where no Celtic reached the lane or even stepped inside the 3-point arc, making the offense easy to guard.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/46480" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/46480">OG Anunoby</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37879" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37879">Mikal Bridges</a>, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30695" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30695">Josh Hart</a> wreaked havoc defensively on Boston's stars, forcing <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/52651" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/52651">Jayson Tatum</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/45455" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/45455">Jaylen Brown</a> to combine for 14-for-43 shooting.</p><p>Tatum was particularly lousy. The Knicks switched ball screens involving their bigs (an adjustment after mostly playing drop coverage during their regular-season showdowns), and the Celtics often found the matchups they wanted, with <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/45223" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/45223">Jalen Brunson</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37817" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37817">Karl-Anthony Towns</a>, or <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/62053" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/62053">Mitchell Robinson</a> switched onto Tatum. But the NBA champ constantly settled, bailing out his weak defenders by taking contested, step-back jumpers. Fifteen of Tatum's 23 shot attempts were threes.</p><p>The three images below are the exact matchups the Celtics want with Towns, Robinson, and Brunson switched onto Tatum. All three possessions resulted in a challenged jumper and no points.</p><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/784330/cropped_Screenshot_2025-05-06_at_10.30.43_AM.jpg?ts=1746548888" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/784330/w220xh124_Screenshot_2025-05-06_at_10.30.43_AM.jpg?ts=1746548888 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/784330/w320xh180_Screenshot_2025-05-06_at_10.30.43_AM.jpg?ts=1746548888 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/784330/w640xh360_Screenshot_2025-05-06_at_10.30.43_AM.jpg?ts=1746548888 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/784330/w768xh432_Screenshot_2025-05-06_at_10.30.43_AM.jpg?ts=1746548888 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/784330/w1080xh607_Screenshot_2025-05-06_at_10.30.43_AM.jpg?ts=1746548888 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> <span class="article-segment--image-attribution">NBA.com</span></figcaption></figure><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/784331/cropped_Screenshot_2025-05-06_at_10.32.13_AM.jpg?ts=1746548908" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/784331/w220xh124_Screenshot_2025-05-06_at_10.32.13_AM.jpg?ts=1746548908 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/784331/w320xh180_Screenshot_2025-05-06_at_10.32.13_AM.jpg?ts=1746548908 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/784331/w640xh360_Screenshot_2025-05-06_at_10.32.13_AM.jpg?ts=1746548908 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/784331/w768xh432_Screenshot_2025-05-06_at_10.32.13_AM.jpg?ts=1746548908 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/784331/w1080xh607_Screenshot_2025-05-06_at_10.32.13_AM.jpg?ts=1746548908 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> <span class="article-segment--image-attribution">NBA.com</span></figcaption></figure><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/784332/cropped_Screenshot_2025-05-06_at_10.33.12_AM.jpg?ts=1746549011" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/784332/w220xh124_Screenshot_2025-05-06_at_10.33.12_AM.jpg?ts=1746549011 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/784332/w320xh180_Screenshot_2025-05-06_at_10.33.12_AM.jpg?ts=1746549011 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/784332/w640xh360_Screenshot_2025-05-06_at_10.33.12_AM.jpg?ts=1746549011 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/784332/w768xh432_Screenshot_2025-05-06_at_10.33.12_AM.jpg?ts=1746549011 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/784332/w1080xh607_Screenshot_2025-05-06_at_10.33.12_AM.jpg?ts=1746549011 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> <span class="article-segment--image-attribution">NBA.com</span></figcaption></figure><p>After losing all four regular-season matchups, the Knicks proved they can compete with the Celtics despite trailing by 20 in the second half and dealing with foul trouble throughout the game. New York acquired tenacious wing defenders Anunoby and Bridges for this matchup. Anunoby contributed 29 points and held the Celtics' starters to 1-for-15 shooting as the primary defender. Bridges made huge defensive plays in the final minutes.</p><p>But this is easily fixable for the Celtics. While they won't stop shooting an absurd number of threes, they should improve on punishing the Knicks' switches when Tatum sees an advantageous matchup. That will lead to higher quality looks for him and his teammates. New York still has matchup problems with Brunson and Towns, especially if they continue to switch ball screens. Plus, Boston, which was 7-for-25 on unguarded, catch-and-shoot threes, according to <a href="http://x.com/_JasonLT/status/1919585684047700410">Jason Timpf of The Volume</a>, won't shoot as poorly on its open looks moving forward.</p><p>Bettors are banking on Game 1 being an anomaly. Nearly 97% of the money wagered and 72% of the bets to win the series are on Boston. The Celtics are 10.5-point favorites in Game 2, and 84% of the spread money is on them to cover.</p><h3>Nuggets 1-0 vs. Thunder</h3><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Series odds before Game 1</th>
<th>After Game 1</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Thunder -900</td>
<td>Thunder -320</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nuggets +500</td>
<td>Nuggets +260</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p>The Nuggets became the first team in NBA history to win a playoff game on one day of rest against an opponent with at least eight days of rest. Denver somehow wasn't fatigued after a grueling seven-game series against the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/17" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/17">Clippers</a>. It battled back from a double-digit deficit to steal Game 1 as huge underdogs, thanks to an <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30810" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30810">Aaron Gordon</a> game-winner in the final seconds.</p><p>Two areas that haunted the Thunder during last season's playoff run materialized in Game 1. The Nuggets grabbed 20 more rebounds than the Thunder and collected 21 on offense alone, resulting in eight more second-chance points for Denver. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37604" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37604">Nikola Jokic</a> secured 22 rebounds while adding 42 points as he physically dominated the Thunder's front line.</p><p>The Thunder had the fourth-worst defensive rebounding percentage last season. Since the All-Star break this year, they've had a top-10 opponent offensive rebounding rate. Pairing <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/60051" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/60051">Isaiah Hartenstein</a> with <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/102801" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/102801">Chet Holmgren</a> seemingly fixed their rebounding woes, but that wasn't the case in Game 1.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/60411" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/60411">Shai Gilgeous-Alexander</a> also needs more help from his co-stars. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/102799" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/102799">Jalen Williams</a>, who struggled in the Thunder's second-round series last season, shot 5-for-20 from the field and finished with 16 points. Holmgren scored 12 points and only captured six rebounds. He also missed two crucial free throws in the final seconds, leading to Gordon's game-winning three.</p><p>The Thunder must adjust before a historically great season ends in a second straight exit in the conference semifinals. They're still considerable favorites in the series. While Denver undoubtedly has some advantages, I'd hesitate to pull the trigger on the Nuggets.</p><p>The Nuggets just played their eighth game in 16 days and won't have more than one day off between games until a potential Game 7. Without much depth, Denver plays its starters a heavy load. Oddsmakers expect exhaustion to kick in at some point, and they're doubling down on their Game 1 line. The Thunder are 10.5-point favorites in Game 2.</p><h3>Pacers 1-0 vs. Cavaliers</h3><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Series odds before Game 1</th>
<th>After Game 1</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Cavaliers -500</td>
<td>Cavaliers -220</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Pacers +360</td>
<td>Pacers +190</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p>The Pacers are the series underdog to wager on after Game 1. Sure, the 3-point disparity likely won't continue at its Game 1 rate - Indiana made 19 threes and shot 52% from deep, while Cleveland made nine and shot 23%.</p><p>However, Indiana's fast-paced, high-volume passing offense involving all five guys is difficult to guard. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/93893" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/93893">Tyrese Haliburton</a> seamlessly drives into the paint and usually makes the right reads. More importantly, the Pacers' defense has ranked in the top 10 since the All-Star break.</p><p>The Cavs' uncertain health is the biggest factor. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/70243" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/70243">Darius Garland</a> missed Game 1 with a toe injury; his Game 2 status is uncertain. Cleveland missed his shot creation as the entire load landed on <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/44998" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/44998">Donovan Mitchell</a>, who plays well alongside him. The team is easier to guard when one is out of the lineup.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/96054" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/96054">Evan Mobley</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/53037" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/53037">De'Andre Hunter</a> are questionable for Game 2 with ankle and thumb injuries, respectively. Cleveland could be missing three of its starters for Game 2 and beyond, and they presumably won't be completely healthy if they do play. None of the three were seen at Tuesday morning's shootaround, according to <a href="http://x.com/UnderdogNBA/status/1919775983432777881">Underdog NBA</a>.</p><p>Indiana has the talent and depth to compete with Cleveland. If the Cavs are missing key players, their impressive season might be cut short. They're still a 7.5-point favorite in Game 2, but the Pacers' series price will only drop if they pull off another upset.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/31209444/related

Why Celtics, Thunder, and Cavs are still big favorites after Game 1 upsets

With two series extending to seven games, the Western Conference opening round concluded over the...

<p>With two series extending to seven games, the Western Conference opening round concluded over the weekend. We already <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3278312" href="https://thescore.com/news/3278312">previewed</a> the Eastern Conference second-round matchups, one of which began Sunday. Now, let's get to our West preview and picks. </p><h3>No. 1 Thunder (-900) vs. No. 4 Nuggets (+500)</h3><p>The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/26" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/26">Denver Nuggets</a> closed out the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/17" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/17">Los Angeles Clippers</a> in seven games to advance to the second round. Denver's reward? One day of rest before beginning its series against the NBA's best team. The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/28" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/28">Oklahoma City Thunder</a> are a massive favorite in the series and a 9.5-point home favorite for Monday night's series opener.</p><p>While Denver must play on little rest, the Thunder haven't played a game in eight days. Before believing rust could be a factor, consider this stat from ESPN: Teams with eight or more days of rest are 6-0 with a 20.3 margin of victory in the playoffs against teams with one rest day. Any playoff series is mentally and physically demanding. It's even more difficult without sufficient recovery time.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>Besides the rest factor, the Thunder have the talent edge in this series. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37604" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37604">Nikola Jokic </a>and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/60411" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/60411">Shai Gilgeous-Alexander</a> are MVP candidates, but the latter has significantly more help. Jokic's supporting cast did enough to escape the Clippers. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/44995" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/44995">Jamal Murray</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/60530" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/60530">Michael Porter Jr.</a> had some brilliant performances, but they also had some duds. Denver can't get away with that inconsistency against a team as deep and ripe with talent as the Thunder. The Nuggets struggle without Jokic on the floor. They have a plus-10.5 net rating when he's on the court and a minus-9.3 net rating when he's out. The Thunder have the depth to survive when Gilgeous-Alexander sits.</p><p>Oklahoma City finished the regular season with the second-best net rating in NBA history behind the 1995-96 Bulls. It has the NBA's best defense and third-best offense. The Thunder dominate the possession battle by rarely turning the ball over (No. 1 turnover rate) and constantly forcing turnovers (No. 1 opponent turnover rate).</p><p>The Thunder have virtually no weaknesses. Their only potential vulnerability is they have relatively little playoff experience. This will be the core's fourth playoff series together. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/102799" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/102799">Jalen Williams</a> floundered in the second round last year. Even if he struggles against the Nuggets, the Thunder have many replaceable two-way wings to pick up the load and help Gilgeous-Alexander as the Nuggets send doubles at the Thunder's star.</p><p>Luckily for Oklahoma City, the Nuggets' defense finished in the bottom third of the league and doesn't have enough capable perimeter defenders to slow down the Thunder's attack.</p><p><strong>Pick: Thunder 4-1 (+200); Thunder 4-2 (+450)</strong></p><h3>No. 6 Timberwolves (-175) vs. No. 7 Warriors (+150)</h3><p>A spinoff featuring a WWE brawl between <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30615" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30615">Rudy Gobert</a> and<a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/2982" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/2982"> Draymond Green</a> would be as enthralling as the basketball in the upcoming <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/27" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/27">Minnesota Timberwolves</a>-<a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/16" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/16">Golden State Warriors</a> series. Gobert's become the NBA's punching bag with Green leading the charge against the French center.</p><p>However, Gobert silenced the critics when he scored 27 points and grabbed 24 rebounds in the Wolves' closeout Game 5 against the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/18" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/18">Los Angeles Lakers</a>. Minnesota's strength is its size and physicality, which it leveraged against the Lakers, who played small without a reliable center on their roster.</p><p>The T-Wolves have a similar advantage over the Warriors, who also play small with Green at the five. The difference between the Warriors' and Lakers' small-ball lineups is that Green is a much better defensive center than <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/53163" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/53163">Rui Hachimura</a> or <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/72" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/72">LeBron James</a>. Green can guard all positions, protect the rim, and rebound effectively. He has experience playing center and has been in plenty of battles against Gobert.</p><p>The Warriors also have the luxury of playing <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37915" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37915">Kevon Looney</a> sporadic minutes, which they'll utilize if necessary. While the Timberwolves have the size advantage, it's not as big of an edge against the Warriors as it was against the Lakers.</p><p>Minnesota can also counter with small lineups when <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/69736" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/69736">Naz Reid</a> plays center. Those lineups feature five shooters, making them difficult to guard. </p><p>The Warriors' core of <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/148" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/148">Steph Curry</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/2809" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/2809">Jimmy Butler</a>, and Green are playoff veterans, but they're also aging stars coming off a seven-game series. Minnesota relies on its youthful exuberance, and it's entering the second round with more rest than Golden State.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/93912" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/93912">Anthony Edwards</a> took another jump this season, but this one came as a playmaker. He's masterfully navigated double teams and consistently sets his teammates up in the right spots. Edwards' supporting cast was a question mark heading into the playoffs, mostly because of <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/31118" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/31118">Julius Randle</a>'s suspect playoff history. But Randle stepped up in the opening round, averaging 22 points on nearly 40% shooting from three.</p><p>Curry should be excellent, especially because the T-Wolves can't match the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/22" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/22">Houston Rockets</a>' defensive physicality that bothered Curry in Round 1. But this series will ultimately come down to each team's secondary players.</p><p>Golden State surrounds Curry and Butler with a shaky offensive support system, while Minnesota has the right pieces around Edwards.</p><p>Few teams are playing as well as the T-Wolves, who have won 20 of their past 25 games. Expect a competitive series featuring many tactical adjustments and rotation modifications. I'd bet on it going seven games with the Timberwolves squeaking by.</p><p><strong>Pick: T-Wolves to win series (-175); Series to go seven games (+195)</strong></p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/31201049/related

Western Conference 2nd-round betting preview

While the Western Conference first round features two Game 7s, the East second-round matchups hav...

<p>While the Western Conference first round features two Game 7s, the East second-round matchups have already been decided. Let's dive into each Eastern Conference contest and our favorite series-long picks.</p><h3>No. 1 Cavaliers (-500) vs. No. 4 Pacers (+360)</h3><p>The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/9" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/9">Indiana Pacers</a>' miraculous Game 5 comeback victory over the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/10" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/10">Milwaukee Bucks</a>, where they trailed by seven with 35 seconds remaining, provided them with extra rest before facing a <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/7" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/7">Cleveland Cavaliers</a> group that outscored the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/13" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/13">Miami Heat</a> by 122 points in four games, the most lopsided playoff sweep in NBA history.</p><p>The Pacers and Cavs are stylistically similar. They both have strong depth and play a fast-paced brand that features everyone in their offenses. They both rarely turn the ball over. The Cavs have the best playoff offensive rating, while the Pacers have the second-best. During the regular season, the Cavs had the league's best offense and the Pacers had the ninth-best.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>While these two teams play similarly, Cleveland's talent is far superior. Thus, it's a substantial favorite.</p><p>Many East first-round series were headlined by physicality and defense. This tune will be different, as free-flowing offense takes center stage. However, Cleveland also had a top-10 defense, while the Pacers were around league average.</p><p>Cleveland has the better backcourt with <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/44998" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/44998">Donovan Mitchell</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/70243" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/70243">Darius Garland</a> and the better frontcourt with<a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/96054" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/96054"> Evan Mobley</a>, who's emerged as an All-NBA player, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/53393" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/53393">Jarrett Allen</a>. The Cavs have perfect complementary wings with <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/53037" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/53037">De'Andre Hunter</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/53038" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/53038">Ty Jerome</a>, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/52639" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/52639">Max Strus</a>. They made the league's second-most threes during the regular season.</p><p>Cleveland relies on the pick-and-roll more than most teams, but it's incredibly efficient at that play type. The Cavs led the NBA in pick-and-roll ball-handler frequency during the regular season and scored 1.33 points per possession, the NBA's best mark. Mitchell and Garland complement each other well and brilliantly navigate ball screens while consistently finding shots for themselves and their teammates.</p><p>The Cavs had the fifth-most possessions featuring the roll man in the pick-and-roll and scored 1.17 points per possession, the second-most behind the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/26" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/26">Denver Nuggets</a>. Mobley emerged as a brilliant short-roll driver and playmaker. Head coach Kenny Atkinson allowed Mobley more freedom within his offense, leading to a career year in his fourth season.</p><p>The Pacers will experiment with different pick-and-roll coverages, but they don't have the defensive personnel to limit the Cavs' efficient options out of the play.</p><p>Indiana moves the ball at a high rate; it leads the playoffs in passes per game. It used its depth to its advantage against an injured and shallow Bucks group. But the Pacers don't have that edge against the Cavs, who averaged roughly the same amount of bench points per game as Indiana.</p><p>The Cavs are well-rested and have been one of the NBA's best teams all season. The Pacers are talented enough to win a couple of games, but they won't return to the Eastern Conference Finals.</p><p><strong>Pick: Cavs in six (+425)</strong></p><h3>No. 2 Celtics (-900) vs. No. 3 Knicks (+500)</h3><p>When the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/3" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/3">New York Knicks</a> traded for <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37879" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37879">Mikal Bridges</a> last offseason, they had this series in mind. The only way to slow down the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/1" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/1">Boston Celtics</a>' prolific offense is with big, athletic wings who can match up with <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/52651" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/52651">Jayson Tatum</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/45455" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/45455">Jaylen Brown</a> on the perimeter. Pairing Bridges with <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/46480" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/46480">OG Anunoby</a> accomplished that, at least on paper.</p><p>Despite the series ending in five games, the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/14" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/14">Orlando Magic</a> were surprisingly competitive against the Celtics in the opening round. Orlando’s defense utilized athletic wings to guard Boston’s stars.</p><p>The Magic wanted to limit the Celtics' 3-point attempts. During the regular season, the Celtics shot 48 threes per game, seven more than the second-highest-volume 3-point team. They made 17.8 per game, the most made threes per game in NBA history. In the first round against Orlando, Boston attempted only 31 threes per game and made 11.</p><p>The Magic limited the Celtics' threes by not over-helping on their drives. The Celtics generate threes through dribble penetration and drive-and-kicks. The Magic wanted to eliminate the kick part of the equation by allowing their on-ball defenders to guard the Celtics one-on-one without much help. Orlando could only do that because of their personnel and deep cast of reliable defenders. However, the Magic never had a chance in the series because of their lackluster offense and shooting woes.</p><p>The Magic unlocked a formula to slow down Boston's attack that teams theoretically should replicate. Realistically, though, that's not possible.</p><p>The Knicks don't have the Magic's personnel. Despite Anunoby and Bridges checking Tatum and Brown, the Knicks have two defensive liabilities: <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/45223" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/45223">Jalen Brunson</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37817" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37817">Karl-Anthony Towns</a>. Boston mercilessly targeted Towns in the pick-and-roll in their previous matchups.</p><p>Tatum, who's third in playoff points per game, scored more points on Towns (43) and Bridges (35) than any other primary defender who guarded him during the regular season, per <a href="https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1628369/head-to-head?Matchup=Offense&amp;SeasonType=Regular%20Season&amp;dir=D&amp;sort=SECONDS">NBA stats</a>. Anunoby successfully defended Tatum throughout the season, holding him to 25% shooting from the field as his primary defender. But the Celtics will set constant ball screens to generate switches onto Towns and Brunson.</p><p>New York failed to stop the Celtics' avalanche of threes in their four matchups during the regular season, all of which Boston won. The Celtics drilled 21 threes per game on 44% shooting in those four games, up from their season average of 17.8 made threes on 36.8% shooting.</p><p>Boston has been so difficult to guard over the past two seasons because it consistently plays lineups with five guys who can space the floor as shooters and multiple players capable of breaking their defenders down off the dribble.</p><p>While defense is a major concern for New York, so is the other side of the ball. For all of Brunson's fourth-quarter brilliance, the Knicks' offense struggled against Detroit.</p><p>New York's offense is too one-dimensional and predictable. Brunson had an astronomically high usage rate in the opening round and attempted the most shots per game of any playoff player.</p><p>The Brunson and Towns pick-and-pop is an effective play, but the Knicks ran it less frequently in the opening round. Bridges had crucial moments throughout the series against the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/8" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/8">Detroit Pistons</a>, but he's underutilized offensively. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30695" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30695">Josh Hart</a> is not a shooting threat, leading to teams helping off the Knicks guard. New York's spacing is often poor, and there is little ball movement to shift the defense on too many possessions. The Knicks' starting lineup has a negative net rating this postseason.</p><p>New York doesn't maximize its offensive talent, and it's not good enough defensively to compete with the defending champs. If <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/383" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/383">Jrue Holiday</a> remains out with a hamstring injury - he missed the past three games - and Boston goes ice cold from deep, the Knicks will have a chance to make this a competitive series.</p><p>Otherwise, Boston is the significantly better team, explaining why it will remain the largest series favorite of any second-round matchup. New York will be lucky to win a game.</p><p><strong>Pick: Celtics -2.5 series spread (-110)</strong></p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/31178411/related

Eastern Conference 2nd-round betting preview

Successful partnerships often end unceremoniously. When the Bucks blew a seven-point lead with 34...

<p>Successful partnerships often end unceremoniously. When the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/10" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/10">Bucks</a> blew a seven-point lead with 34 seconds remaining in Game 5, it didn't just feel like the end of the Bucks' season. It felt like the end of an era in Milwaukee.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30611" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30611">Giannis Antetokounmpo</a> has spent 12 seasons with the Bucks. He began as a skinny, raw, and uncertain Greek prospect whom Milwaukee took a chance on with the 15th pick and blossomed into a two-time MVP and NBA champion. There have been many joyous moments throughout the Greek Freak's time in Milwaukee, but disappointing playoff exits have recently clouded Antetokounmpo's greatness.</p><p>It started when the 8-seeded <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/13" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/13">Heat</a> upset the top-seeded Bucks in the first round of the 2023 playoffs as Antetokounmpo missed multiple games throughout the series. That offseason, the Bucks fired head coach Mike Budenholzer, who won a championship with the team in 2021, and traded <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/383" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/383">Jrue Holiday</a> for <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/5343" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/5343">Damian Lillard</a>.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>Antetokounmpo also missed last year's first round, which Milwaukee lost to Indiana. During this postseason, Lillard returned from a blood clot issue in Game 2 before tearing his Achilles in Game 4. Regardless of Lillard's health status, the Bucks likely never had a chance against a superior <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/9" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/9">Pacers</a> squad.</p><p>Now, the Bucks and Antetokounmpo are at a crossroads. The superstar has publicly expressed gratitude for the city where he's spent his entire NBA career. However, the Bucks have very few paths to championship contention for the foreseeable future.</p><p>Antetokounmpo has a decision to make: stay in Milwaukee on a middling squad during the prime of his career or request a trade to a contending team to seek a second championship. Many within the NBA project Antetokounmpo will take the latter approach. So, where is Antetokounmpo's second act most likely to occur?</p><h3>Giannis' next team odds</h3><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Team</th>
<th>Odds</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Bucks</td>
<td>+125</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nets</td>
<td>+450</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Thunder</td>
<td>+450</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Rockets</td>
<td>+800</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Warriors</td>
<td>+1000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Heat</td>
<td>+1000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Magic</td>
<td>+1400</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Spurs</td>
<td>+1600</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p><em>Odds via theScore Bet</em></p><p>Antetokounmpo is under contract for the next two years, meaning any move must be facilitated through a trade. Thus, Milwaukee is still the +125 favorite at theScore Bet/ESPN Bet to retain Antetokounmpo, as he hasn't expressed a desire to play for another team. While the Bucks shouldn't willingly trade their franchise cornerstone who averaged 30.4 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 6.5 assists this season, they may want to begin a rebuild with a massive trade haul for Antetokounmpo instead of hovering around the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff picture.</p><p>Again, Milwaukee has extremely limited means of replenishing its roster. It doesn't own the rights to any of its first-round draft picks until 2031, so it can't use them as trade assets or develop its own drafted players. The Bucks have no budding young stars on their roster. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/300" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/300">Brook Lopez</a> is 37, and they made a desperate midseason move for <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37799" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37799">Kyle Kuzma</a>, who was awful in the postseason.</p><p>Antetokounmpo's co-star, Lillard, will likely miss next season as he rehabs an Achilles injury at 35. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/345" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/345">Kevin Durant</a> successfully returned from an Achilles tear, but he was 30 and doesn't rely on the burst or explosion that Lillard does. While the 13-year vet <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3276886" href="https://thescore.com/news/3276886">will fight</a> to come back, he won't return to an All-Star level.</p><p>If a trade eventually arrives, this won't be similar to the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/68198" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/68198">Luka Doncic</a> situation when the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/21" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/21">Mavericks</a> foolishly dealt with one trade partner without shopping around. The Bucks should negotiate offers for Antetokounmpo extensively, ensuring they get a massive haul of picks and young players to kick-start a rebuild.</p><p>Contending teams will be desperate to acquire Antetokounmpo. And a few organizations have a war chest of assets to throw at Milwaukee.</p><p>The Nets have seven unprotected first-round picks over the next three years. The global superstar will have a massive say in his trade destination because no team would trade for him without securing a long-term commitment. It doesn't make sense for Antetokounmpo to play for another team devoid of stars that can't compete for championships. The Nets must trade for another star to have a chance at Antetokounmpo, or they could get lucky in the draft lottery and land <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/162169" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/162169">Cooper Flagg</a> with the top pick.</p><p>The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/22" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/22">Rockets</a> have been linked to superstars Antetokounmpo and Durant after hoarding assets in hopes of making a big splash. While Houston is still alive in its first-round matchup against the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/16" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/16">Warriors</a>, it's clear the Rockets' half-court offense doesn't have a reliable shot creator, resulting in poor clutch-time performances. Their defense carried them to the second seed in the West.</p><p>The Rockets have a plethora of young prospects on their deep roster and various future picks to send out. No. 3 overall pick <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/121682" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/121682">Reed Sheppard</a> didn't even crack their rotation this year. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/96116" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/96116">Jalen Green</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/110270" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/110270">Cam Whitmore</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/102780" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/102780">Tari Eason</a>, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/102778" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/102778">Jabari Smith Jr.</a> could also be included as trade pieces. Houston is surprisingly low on the oddsboard, given it can offer one of the best packages with picks and budding young stars. It had the NBA's fourth-best record this season, but, with Antetokounmpo, Houston would immediately become a title favorite next season.</p><p>The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/25" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/25">Spurs</a> are another team that can offer a package of young players and picks. Pairing Antetokounmpo with <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/110276" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/110276">Victor Wembanyama</a> would form the league's most daunting frontcourt and immediately bolster San Antonio's defense to one of the NBA's best, regardless of who shares the floor with them.</p><p>The Thunder are an intriguing team to watch. They're currently chasing an NBA championship and are the favorites (+140) to hoist the trophy. It's hard to imagine they'd completely upend their roster after winning a title. However, if they do flame out in the playoffs earlier than expected after capturing the West's top seed in back-to-back seasons, pursuing Antetokounmpo might be in play. </p><p>Oklahoma City is another organization with seemingly unlimited draft picks for the next half decade. The Thunder have a deep pool of young talent to trade, including <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/31937" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/31937">Aaron Wiggins</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/110284" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/110284">Cason Wallace</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/93854" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/93854">Isaiah Joe</a>, and possibly even stars <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/102801" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/102801">Chet Holmgren</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/102799" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/102799">Jalen Williams</a>. Perhaps Antetokounmpo is the missing piece to the Thunder's championship puzzle. Or maybe the Thunder discover this postseason that the puzzle is already solved.</p><p>The Heat, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/14" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/14">Magic</a>, and Warriors could make a push as well, but they have less to offer than other teams. When a player of Antetokounmpo's caliber becomes available, nearly every franchise that can pursue him should. For now, teams must play the waiting game until the Bucks and Antetokounmpo decide on his future.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/31170136/related

Giannis' next team odds: Will the Greek Freak be moved?

NBA teams that take a 3-1 playoff series lead advance 95% of the time. Only 13 teams in league hi...

<p>NBA teams that take a 3-1 playoff series lead advance 95% of the time. Only 13 teams in league history have completed a comeback after trailing 3-1, and the only two instances from this decade happened in the 2020 bubble. In the last 17 postseasons, it's only happened five times.</p><p>The most famous case is the 2016 NBA Finals, where the LeBron James-led <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/7" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/7">Cavaliers</a> mounted an incredible comeback against the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/16" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/16">Warriors</a>. In the previous round, Golden State had bounced back from a 3-1 series deficit to defeat the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/28" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/28">Thunder</a> in the Western Conference finals. Entering Monday's games, how do oddsmakers rate the comeback chances of the four teams trailing 3-1 in the first round?</p><h3>Timberwolves (-600) lead the Lakers (+380) 3-1</h3><p>The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/18" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/18">Lakers</a> entered the series as favorites because of their star power, but that overlooked the fact the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/27" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/27">Timberwolves</a> won 16 of their final 20 regular-season games.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/93912" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/93912">Anthony Edwards</a> has been the best player in a series featuring <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/68198" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/68198">Luka Doncic</a> and<a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/72" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/72"> LeBron James</a>. More importantly, the Wolves' other pieces have outshone the Lakers' supporting cast. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/31118" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/31118">Julius Randle</a> has a questionable playoff history, but he's averaging 22 points on 45% shooting from three and perfectly navigating next-man-up situations as the Lakers throw double-teams at Edwards. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/93891" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/93891">Jaden McDaniels</a> is averaging nearly 20 points on 42% 3-point shooting while drawing the toughest defensive assignment of guarding Doncic. Finally, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/69736" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/69736">Naz Reid</a> is shooting 52% from deep.</p><p>The Lakers lack a dependable center, forcing them to play small against the Wolves' size and physicality. JJ Redick also decided to play just five players for the entire second half after a single day of rest between Games 3 and 4, the first time in postseason history (during the play-by-play era) that a head coach made that bold move. The gamble backfired; the Lakers blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead as their fatigue kicked in. Doncic struggled defensively, and James was barely involved in the offense, attempting just two shots in the final 12 minutes. Exhausted, Los Angeles struggled to attack the rim: 66% of its fourth-quarter shots came from beyond the arc.<strong> </strong>The Lakers have little depth, but Redick must find sporadic second-half minutes for <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/38557" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/38557">Gabe Vincent</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/60415" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/60415">Jarred Vanderbilt</a>.</p><p>Minnesota is the better overall team and presents a matchup problem for the Lakers, but there's still optimism for Los Angeles. The Lakers have posted a truly abysmal 78 offensive rating in the clutch this postseason. That's unlikely to continue with James and Doncic, especially after they produced a 117 clutch offensive rating throughout the regular season.</p><p>Plus, the Wolves have more depth, but can their secondary contributors keep producing at this level? Randle, McDaniels, and Reid shot less than 38% from three during the regular season, and none of them averaged more than 19 points per game. The Lakers need them to cool off to mount a comeback.</p><p>The Lakers' implied probability of winning this series is 21%. However, James has done this before. Counting out his team discredits James' and Doncic's greatness.</p><h3>Pacers (-2000) lead the Bucks (+900) 3-1</h3><p>Just about everything that could go wrong for the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/10" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/10">Bucks</a> has gone wrong. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/5343" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/5343">Damian Lillard</a> miraculously returned in Game 2 after dealing with a blood clot for the last month, but he reportedly tore his Achilles in Game 4. Lillard's season is done, and the Bucks' season is about to follow suit.</p><p>Despite <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30611" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30611">Giannis Antetokounmpo</a>'s greatness, he doesn't have enough help against the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/9" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/9">Pacers</a>' depth. Milwaukee looks lifeless while Indiana's high-volume passing and fast-paced offense keeps all five guys on the floor involved and challenges the Bucks' defense.</p><p>Indiana has six players averaging double figures and eight players averaging at least eight points against Milwaukee. Modern playoff series are less about who's got the best player on the floor and more about who's got the more reliable supporting cast. The Bucks have the former and the Pacers own the latter, which has put Indiana one game away from advancing past the Bucks in the opening round for the second consecutive season.</p><p>Oddsmakers assign the Bucks a 10% implied probability of climbing back. Even with Lillard, the Pacers were the better group. Without him, Milwaukee has no chance.</p><h3>Knicks (-4000) lead the Pistons 3-1 (+1300)</h3><p>Lost in all the outrage regarding <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30695" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30695">Josh Hart</a>'s uncalled foul on <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/6179" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/6179">Tim Hardaway Jr.</a>'s final shot in Game 4 is the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/8" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/8">Pistons</a>' squandered 11-point fourth-quarter lead.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/45223" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/45223">Jalen Brunson</a>, who was nursing an ankle injury in the fourth quarter, exploded for 15 points in the final frame to gift the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/3" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/3">Knicks</a> a 3-1 series lead heading back to New York. More than the officials, New York's clutch play is what's given the team control of the series.</p><p>The Pistons' physicality - and the refs allowing both teams to maul each other - has bothered the Knicks for stretches. The Knicks had the talent edge heading into the series, but could they match Detroit's toughness? After earning two gritty wins in a hostile road atmosphere, the answer is clearly yes.</p><p>Brunson, for his part, has also been the series' best player. He has 53 fourth-quarter points in this series to lead NBA this postseason on 65% shooting compared to <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/96056" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/96056">Cade Cunningham</a>'s 26 fourth-quarter points on 35%. Brunson's co-star <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37817" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37817">Karl-Anthony Towns</a> has the second-most clutch points this postseason.</p><p>Detroit has been competitive in every game and refuses to back down, but the talent disparity is obvious in the game's final minutes, and it's too wide for the Pistons to close the gap. The Knicks are -5.5 favorites to close out the series in New York on Tuesday.</p><h3>Celtics (-50000) lead the Magic (+3500) 3-1</h3><p>The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/14" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/14">Magic</a> have been surprisingly competitive against the defending champs. Although the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/1" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/1">Celtics</a> lead 3-1, three of the four games have come down to clutch time, when a game is within five points in the final five minutes. </p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/383" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/383">Jrue Holiday</a> missed the last two games with a hamstring injury, and the Magic have successfully limited <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/44888" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/44888">Kristaps Porzingis</a>' offensive impact. Boston is not showcasing the best version of itself, but the Magic's defense, which was the NBA's second-best during the regular season, has challenged Boston's offense. </p><p>However, Orlando just doesn't have enough scoring and shooting to keep up with the Celtics. The Magic have the fourth-worst offensive rating among playoff teams and are last in 3-point percentage. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/102767" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/102767">Paolo Banchero</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/96086" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/96086">Franz Wagner</a> average 32 and 26 points, respectively, but no other Magic player averages double digits.</p><p>The Magic's season should wrap Tuesday when they enter Boston as 11.5-point underdogs. </p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/31131532/related

Which NBA team has the best odds to erase 3-1 deficit?

Although the Titans will almost certainly pick Cam Ward first overall in the 2025 NFL Draft, quar...

<p>Although the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nfl/teams/14" href="https://thescore.com/nfl/teams/14">Titans</a> will almost certainly pick <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaaf/players/152938" href="https://thescore.com/ncaaf/players/152938">Cam Ward</a> first overall in the 2025 NFL Draft, quarterbacks aren't the story of this year's event.</p><p>There's a chance Ward is the only quarterback selected in the first round, which happened in 2022's opening round when <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nfl/players/173994" href="https://thescore.com/nfl/players/173994">Kenny Pickett</a> was the lone quarterback taken.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaaf/players/160938" href="https://thescore.com/ncaaf/players/160938">Shedeur Sanders</a> is a projected first-rounder and an intriguing prospect with raw talent, but NFL personnel haven't been shy about their concerns with his attitude. He could land anywhere from second overall to the second round.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><h3>Total quarterbacks drafted in the first round</h3><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>O 2.5</th>
<th>U 2.5</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>-130</td>
<td>Even</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p>Beyond Ward, there's no guarantee another quarterback will be drafted Thursday night. While most would be surprised if Sanders falls to the second round, it's possible his red flags are too risky for an organization to spend first-round capital on.</p><p>His over/under prop mark is 8.5, but that's a -600 price to the over (86% implied probability). Some mock drafts have him going to the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nfl/teams/30" href="https://thescore.com/nfl/teams/30">Saints</a> at No. 9 and others have him falling to the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nfl/teams/11" href="https://thescore.com/nfl/teams/11">Steelers</a> at No. 21. That begs the question: Will a third quarterback be selected in the first 32 picks?</p><p>Oddsmakers say it's likely at least three quarterbacks go in the first round. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaaf/players/162552" href="https://thescore.com/ncaaf/players/162552">Jaxson Dart</a> is the most probable candidate to join Ward and Sanders. His draft position prop is 24.5, but the over is priced at -200 (67% implied probability).</p><p>ESPN's Peter Schrager projects the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nfl/teams/18" href="https://thescore.com/nfl/teams/18">Giants</a> will draft Dart at No. 26 in his latest <a href="https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2025/story/_/id/44790164/2025-nfl-mock-draft-peter-schrager-first-round-predictions-32-picks-trades-buzz-qbs-sanders-ward-dart">mock draft</a>. Dart is another polarizing prospect whom some scouts view as a star and others as a career backup. As the close betting line indicates, it shouldn't shock anyone if he slips out of the first round.</p><p>Sometimes teams make bold decisions on draft night and reach for quarterbacks. While no major mock draft predicts such, a team could also select <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaaf/players/162849" href="https://thescore.com/ncaaf/players/162849">Jalen Milroe</a> in the opening round, which would undoubtedly hit the over on quarterbacks drafted.</p><p>Five teams are desperate for a quarterback in the short and long term: the Titans, Giants, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nfl/teams/10" href="https://thescore.com/nfl/teams/10">Browns</a>, Steelers, and possibly, the Saints. Some of them made offseason moves to address their quarterback situations, but none has a reliable option. Other teams with a dependable starter might want a quarterback for the future. But even with multiple organizations searching for their next signal-caller, few will likely pull the trigger in the first round of a draft with a weak class at the position.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/31064615/related

How many QBs will be drafted in the 1st round?

Shedeur Sanders is the headline entering Thursday's spectacle in a draft devoid of much quarterba...

<p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaaf/players/160938" href="https://thescore.com/ncaaf/players/160938">Shedeur Sanders</a> is the headline entering Thursday's spectacle in a draft devoid of much quarterback talent. While <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nhl/players/247" href="https://thescore.com/nhl/players/247">Cam Ward</a> will likely be the top pick in the draft and the first quarterback off the board, he hasn't generated the buzz that Sanders has, mostly because the latter is Deion Sanders' son.</p><p>Because of the attention the elder Sanders brought to Colorado over the past two seasons, the younger Sanders has benefited - and sometimes been disadvantaged - from having eyeballs all over him.</p><p>Many scouts and NFL personnel differ on Sanders' NFL potential and whether he could eventually become the face of a franchise. However, only one organization must take the gamble. So, who will it be?</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><h3>Team to draft Shedeur Sanders odds</h3><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Team (Current R1 pick)</th>
<th>Odds</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Browns (2)</td>
<td>+250</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Steelers (21)</td>
<td>+280</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Saints (9)</td>
<td>+350</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Giants (3)</td>
<td>+400</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Raiders (6)</td>
<td>+1300</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Rams (26)</td>
<td>+1500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jets (7)</td>
<td>+1600</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Colts (14)</td>
<td>+4000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Seahawks (18)</td>
<td>+4000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Cowboys (12)</td>
<td>+5000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dolphins (13)</td>
<td>+5000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>49ers (11)</td>
<td>+8000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Titans (1)</td>
<td>+10000</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p>Twenty-four hours ago, the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nfl/teams/30" href="https://thescore.com/nfl/teams/30">Saints</a> were the favorites to land Sanders, followed by the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nfl/teams/11" href="https://thescore.com/nfl/teams/11">Steelers</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nfl/teams/10" href="https://thescore.com/nfl/teams/10">Browns</a>, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nfl/teams/18" href="https://thescore.com/nfl/teams/18">Giants</a>. New Orleans was the favorite for weeks, but something garnered a major shift in the odds with two days remaining until the draft.</p><p>The Browns are now the favorites to draft Sanders, with the Steelers and Saints falling close behind. ESPN's Peter Schrager <a href="https://x.com/AdamSchefter/status/1914692162077282555">reported</a> the Browns and Giants are fielding calls for the second and third picks, respectively - presumably to move back and draft a quarterback.</p><p>While the shift in odds could be smoke, Cleveland, New York, New Orleans and Pittsburgh are all candidates to draft Sanders as organizations with uncertain quarterback situations. Although there are always wild surprises on draft night, it's hard to imagine a team outside of those four taking a chance on him.</p><p>Sanders is the favorite to be the second quarterback drafted at -290. It's almost a certainty (-20000) that Ward will go first overall to the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nfl/teams/14" href="https://thescore.com/nfl/teams/14">Titans</a>.</p><p>Sanders' draft position prop is 8.5, with -600 odds to the over, meaning oddsmakers assign him an 86% implied probability of being drafted ninth or later. He's +380 to land in the top five, giving him a 21% implied probability of hearing his name called there.</p><p>It's unlikely anyone would draft Sanders in the first eight picks. If the Browns or Giants want him, they're expected to trade back, as few others are interested. Both teams have done their homework on Sanders, meeting with the Colorado quarterback multiple times.</p><p>The Browns, Giants, and Steelers made offseason additions at the position, but none has a long-term solution. The Browns added <a href="https://thescore.com/nfl/players/2945">Joe Flacco</a> and the Giants acquired <a href="https://thescore.com/nfl/players/12258">Russell Wilson</a>.</p><p>The Steelers brought back <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nfl/players/83531" href="https://thescore.com/nfl/players/83531">Mason Rudolph</a> but have yet to find a starting-caliber signal-caller. Oddsmakers believe there's a good chance they trade up to acquire Sanders or he falls to No. 21.</p><p>ESPN's latest <a href="https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2025/insider/story/_/id/44720529/2025-nfl-mock-draft-seven-rounds-257-picks-predictions-jordan-reid-fits">mock draft</a> has Sanders falling to the Saints at No. 9. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nfl/players/22061" href="https://thescore.com/nfl/players/22061">Derek Carr</a>'s shoulder injury may leave him sidelined next season, and reported tension between Carr and the Saints could lead the team to make a move under center. Plus, Carr is entering his 12th year and has declined the last three seasons.</p><p>Predicting Sanders' next location is challenging because there's no consensus regarding his ceiling or where he might land. He's undeniably talented and made some incredible plays for Colorado with a weak offensive line. Concerns about his attitude also persist, and teams could raise a red flag due to his father coaching him at every stop in his football journey, which won't be the case in the NFL.</p><p>At this point, it's anyone's best guess where Sanders might land. No one should be surprised if he's drafted anywhere from No. 2 overall to somewhere in the second round.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/31053836/related

Odds shift on Sanders' landing spot: Who will draft the Colorado QB?

By now, sports fans and bettors know the lore. Philadelphia Phillies slugger Nick Castellanos is ...

<p>By now, sports fans and bettors know the lore. Philadelphia Phillies slugger <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///mlb/players/2880" href="https://thescore.com/mlb/players/2880">Nick Castellanos</a> is famous for hitting home runs during inopportune times and on days when significant events occur.</p><p>It started when Castellanos homered as broadcaster Thom Brennaman apologized for using a homophobic slur, creating an unforgettable sports meme still used today. In the years since, Castellanos has continued to hit home runs during awkward moments, including one that came while the Kansas City Royals' broadcast eulogized a World War II veteran.</p><figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here is the Royals broadcast of the Nick Castellanos home run.<br><br>They were eulogizing someone live on the air when it Nick went deep to left-center field.<br><br>You can not make this stuff up.<br><br>Credit to <a href="https://twitter.com/hjodoyle?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@hjodoyle</a> for the tip. <a href="https://t.co/iA2grIKY61">pic.twitter.com/iA2grIKY61</a></p>— Nick Kirby (@Nicholaspkirby) <a href="https://twitter.com/Nicholaspkirby/status/1412235071642292225?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 6, 2021</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure><p>What started as untimely home runs during broadcasts then became homers that coincided with significant world events. Castellanos went yard on the day I-95 collapsed in Philadelphia, as well as the day President Donald Trump experienced an assassination attempt. He also hit his first professional home run on May 1, 2011, the same day Osama Bin Laden was killed.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>When sports fans woke up Monday to the news that Pope Francis died, bettors raced to do one thing - bet on Castellanos to hit a home run. The Phillies' right fielder to hit a home run is the most-bet player prop of the day across all sports by total bets and money wagered on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet. It's unprecedented for a baseball prop to see that much action during a game in April, especially when the NBA and NHL playoffs are also taking place. The influx of action forced oddsmakers to drop Castellanos' home-run price from +800 to +475.</p><p>"The narrative around Castellanos is well-known, and this isn't the first time we've seen bettors flock to his home run prop," Adrian Horton, head of North American trading at theScore Bet/ESPN Bet, said.</p><p>Some fans believe everyone has lost the plot. Castellanos certainly doesn't blast one into the stands following every woeful event. But there's no doubt he still attracts attention from bettors and sends social media into a frenzy.</p><p>The Phillies are slight road underdogs (+105) Monday night against the Mets (-125), their divisional rival. Castellanos, who has three home runs in 79 at-bats this season, has the same odds as <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///mlb/players/1688" href="https://thescore.com/mlb/players/1688">Bryce Harper</a>, while Mets sluggers <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///mlb/players/2909" href="https://thescore.com/mlb/players/2909">Francisco Lindor</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///mlb/players/8674" href="https://thescore.com/mlb/players/8674">Pete Alonso</a> have the shortest odds to go yard at +450.</p><p>If the 13-year vet blasts one deep Monday night, Castellanos will quickly trend on social media as bettors rejoice.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/31045299/related

Bettors flock to Castellanos' home-run market following Pope's death

Building a 20-point lead is more common than ever in the NBA. Improved talent across the league, ...

<p>Building a 20-point lead is more common than ever in the NBA. Improved talent across the league, combined with increased 3-point volume and pace, has led to scoring explosions. While it's easier to produce a 20-point lead, it's also easier to storm back from a 20-point deficit.</p><p>With clubs shooting a historically high number of threes, there's a lot of scoring volatility throughout an NBA contest. Basketball has always been a game of runs, but those runs are building quicker than ever as squads value 3-point looks. A prime example came Saturday when the <a href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/3">Knicks</a> erupted for a 21-0 run in the fourth quarter of their Game 1 win over the <a href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/8">Pistons</a>.</p><p>A team built a 20-point lead at some point in five of this year's eight Game 1s. The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/1" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/1">Celtics</a> barely missed out, leading the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/14" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/14">Magic</a> by 19 in the fourth quarter. Some sportsbooks, including theScore Bet and ESPN Bet, offer a postseason promotion: You're guaranteed a win if the team you backed on the moneyline - whether straight bets or parlays - builds a 20-point lead in the contest, even if the squad ultimately collapses and loses.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>Most clubs with 20-point leads go on to win, but this early victory promotion could be valuable throughout the playoffs. It also gives bettors peace of mind, letting them avoid the stress of a potential comeback.</p><p>A 20-point lead isn't as safe a margin as it used to be. While no team came back from the monumental hole during the opening weekend of the postseason, the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/22" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/22">Rockets</a> came close. The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/16" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/16">Warriors</a> led by 23 before Houston mounted a charge, cutting the deficit to six in the fourth quarter. Golden State's playoff experience eventually led to a 10-point win.</p><p>In the past decade, there have been 13 playoff comebacks from 20-point deficits, with five occurring in the last four years. And two of those came last year: The <a href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/27">Timberwolves</a>' Game 7 win over the <a href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/26">Nuggets</a> in the Western Conference semifinals after trailing by 20, and Denver's comeback from a 20-point hole against the <a href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/18">Lakers</a> in Game 2 of the opening round.</p><p>The largest comeback in playoff history took place in 2019 when the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/17" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/17">Clippers</a> erased a 31-point deficit to beat the Warriors in Game 2 of the opening round.</p><p>A 20-point advantage can become a tie game in the blink of an eye. There's a good chance a team completes a 20-point comeback at some point this postseason, but bettors at theScore Bet/ESPN Bet who wager on the moneyline of the losing squad will still earn the win.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/31044381/related

NBA playoff betting: How a blown 20-point lead can still be a win for bettors

We've already previewed the East and West first-round series. With the playoffs tipping off Satur...

<p>We've already previewed the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3268785" href="https://thescore.com/news/3268785">East</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3267833" href="https://thescore.com/news/3267833">West</a> first-round series. With the playoffs tipping off Saturday, let's evaluate seven players who will make or break their team's chances in the first round and whether we're backing or fading them.</p><h3>Rockets: Jalen Green</h3><p>Experience could hold the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/22" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/22">Rockets</a> back this postseason after a surprisingly impressive regular season. Most of the their top contributors, including <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/96116" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/96116">Jalen Green</a>, have zero playoff experience.</p><p>The Rockets are without a reliable closer and won't have the best player in any series. Houston also had the fifth-worst clutch offense among playoff teams and a negative net rating. Green can catch fire for stretches, but he's wildly inefficient, shooting 42% from the field with a 54.4% true shooting percentage - 13th-worst among players who average at least 30 minutes per game.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>When the Rockets need someone to score late, Green is the obvious choice as an athletic guard who can create for himself. But he shot an abysmal 37% in the clutch during the regular season.</p><p>As coverages hone in on Green, I expect him to struggle in his first taste of the postseason. His series-long points per game prop is 22, a surprising number considering he averaged fewer than that in the regular season and playoff stats are typically worse.</p><p><strong>Verdict: Bail on Green</strong></p><h3>Warriors: Steph Curry</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/148" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/148">Steph Curry</a> is the greatest shooter ever, but the Rockets have minimized his impact this season in a way no other club has. Curry failed to score 20 points in two of his three games against Houston and shot 36% across those three contests. He scored three points on 1-for-10 shooting in the most recent matchup.</p><p>The Rockets' array of defenders face guarding Curry along with their off-ball physicality disturbed the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/16" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/16">Warriors</a>' point guard. Houston blitzed his ball screens, forcing the ball out of his hands. Although his gravity created opportunities for his teammates in those situations, the Warriors need Curry to be Curry to defeat the Rockets.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/110271" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/110271">Amen Thompson</a> will start on Curry, but Houston has multiple strong, athletic defenders to throw his way. The officiating will impact this series, specifically how much physicality the Rockets get away with.</p><p>Few teams possess the defensive personnel to guard Curry like the Rockets. Still, the Warriors will find ways to create easier looks for him and dismantle the Rockets' defensive strategy. It's almost impossible to imagine one of the generation's greatest players becoming inconsequential.</p><p>His series-long points per game prop is 25.5 because the Rockets successfully limited his scoring output previously. However, Curry averaged at least 26 points in five of his last six playoff series and holds a career average of 27 points per game over 147 playoff games. Let's bank on that experience.</p><p><strong>Verdict: Bet on Curry</strong></p><h3>Lakers: Austin Reaves</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/96101" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/96101">Austin Reaves</a> is the NBA's best third option, but it certainly helps that he plays alongside future Hall of Famers <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/72" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/72">LeBron James</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/68198" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/68198">Luka Doncic</a>, who command as much defensive attention as anyone in the league. </p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/18" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/18">Lakers</a> head coach JJ Redick constantly runs actions to provide Reaves with open looks, exhibiting his trust in the budding star. Reaves can easily exploit mismatches when the two best defenders typically guard Doncic or James. </p><p>Reaves averaged career highs of 20.2 points and 14.2 field goal attempts this season. His series-long prop is 19.5, which he should soar past as the Wolves' primarily focus on the Lakers' two superstars.</p><p><strong>Verdict: Bet on Reaves</strong></p><h3>Timberwolves: Julius Randle</h3><p>It's been a rocky ride throughout <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/31118" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/31118">Julius Randle</a>'s first season in Minnesota. After stumbling out of the gates, the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/27" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/27">Timberwolves</a> (and Randle) finished the season strong, winning 16 of their final 20 games.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/93912" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/93912">Anthony Edwards</a> led the NBA in clutch points, and it's no secret the Wolves' offense goes through him. However, the Lakers' game plan will include blitzing his ball screens and often sending a second defender his way. That places added responsibility on Minnesota's others, including Randle, the Wolves' second-leading scorer, who's sometimes been a questionable fit alongside Edwards.</p><p>Randle thrives on driving to the rim and backing down defenders with his patented bully-ball approach, but he's an inconsistent 3-point shooter, drilling just 34% of his looks this season. He must hit threes at a higher rate to stretch out Los Angeles' defense.</p><p>The 11-year vet has notoriously struggled in his 15 career playoff games. He's averaged 17.1 points on 34% shooting in the playoffs. To be fair, he was the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/3" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/3">Knicks</a>' primary option in his first playoff stint and dealt with an injury in his second. Will he turn his playoff troubles around in his third appearance with a new team? There's good reason to believe Randle's offensive style isn't meant for the playoffs. His series-long points per game prop is 18.5.</p><p><strong>Verdict: Bail on Randle</strong></p><h3>Nuggets: Jamal Murray</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37604" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37604">Nikola Jokic</a> can't do it all himself. Although <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/52287" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/52287">Ivica Zubac</a> can contain Jokic better than most, the world's best player will still dominate. Jokic's series-long points per game prop is 28, which he's exceeded in four of his last five playoff series. </p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/44995" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/44995">Jamal Murray</a> is the Nuggets' only other reliable scorer and creator, but he hasn't always functioned as such over the last two seasons. Murray was a primary reason for Denver's postseason run being cut short last year. He also started this campaign slowly before increasing his production in February and March. However, injuries are a huge part of Murray's story. He missed a stretch in April with a hamstring injury before returning for the final two regular-season games.</p><p>Despite the talent, it's hard to find reasons to trust Murray's health or playoff performance, especially against the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/17" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/17">Clippers</a>' third-best defense with sturdy perimeter defenders. Murray's series-long points per game prop is 19, which he failed to reach in last year's second-round series loss to Minnesota. </p><p><strong>Verdict: Bail on Murray</strong></p><h3>Knicks: Karl-Anthony Towns</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37817" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37817">Karl-Anthony Towns</a>' playoff transgressions are well documented. However, he improved during last year's postseason run with the Wolves, including cutting down his boneheaded fouling that cost Minnesota in previous seasons. The Pistons should be incredibly physical with Towns, and the Knicks can't afford to have him in foul trouble with their minimal depth.</p><p>Towns has been as advertised in New York as an offensive juggernaut who creates an unstoppable pick-and-roll duo with <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/45223" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/45223">Jalen Brunson</a>. Both guys are vulnerable defending ball screens but make up for it offensively.</p><p>Brunson's series-long points prop is 27.5, which he's exceeded in his last three playoff series. While that's also worth a look, the Pistons don't have the personnel to stop Towns, whose series-long points prop is 22.5. He's never met that mark in a postseason series; he's averaged 18.8 points in 32 playoff games. Yet, Towns averaged 24.4 points per game this season and should consistently have matchup advantages against Detroit.</p><p><strong>Verdict: Bet on Towns</strong></p><h3>Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/5343" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/5343">Damian Lillard</a>'s return date will ultimately decide the series, but the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/9" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/9">Pacers</a> need <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/93893" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/93893">Tyrese Haliburton</a>, who re-emerged as an All-Star in the second half of the season, to flourish regardless of who's on the floor.</p><p>The Pacers escaped the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/10" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/10">Bucks</a>, who were without <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30611" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30611">Giannis Antetokounmpo</a>, during the first round last year despite Haliburton struggling. He averaged 16 points on 43% shooting from the field and 29% from three. His points per game prop in this year's matchup is 18.5.</p><p>The Bucks have various defenders, including <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30845" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30845">Bobby Portis</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/70216" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/70216">Kevin Porter Jr.</a>, to throw at Haliburton and bother him with their physicality. If he struggles again, the Pacers will go home earlier than last postseason.</p><p><strong>Verdict: Bail on Haliburton</strong></p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

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Bet or Bail: 7 key players who will determine 1st-round matchups

As the NBA's play-in tournament concludes Friday night and the eighth seed in each conference is ...

<p>As the NBA's play-in tournament concludes Friday night and the eighth seed in each conference is determined, bettors have been wagering on the opening-round matchups and the championship winner. Let's take a look at the odds for the NBA playoffs and bettor behavior so far.</p><h3>NBA Finals betting insights</h3><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Team</th>
<th>% of bets</th>
<th>% of handle</th>
<th>Title odds</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Lakers</td>
<td>17%</td>
<td>19.5%</td>
<td>+1300</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Celtics</td>
<td>15.3%</td>
<td>16.8%</td>
<td>+190</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Thunder</td>
<td>14.3%</td>
<td>16.6%</td>
<td>+180</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Cavaliers</td>
<td>12.3%</td>
<td>10.6%</td>
<td>+575</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nuggets</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
<td>+3000</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p><em>Insight via theScore Bet/ESPN Bet</em></p><p>Despite having the fourth-best odds, the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/18" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/18">Lakers</a> are the most popular title pick among bettors. That's not exactly a surprise; the Lakers are the NBA's most popular franchise and have two of the league's best and most popular players. They also have a favorable path to make it out of the West. Understandably, bettors are pulling the trigger on a relatively long price, making Los Angeles a liability for sportsbooks.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>Realistically, the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/1" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/1">Celtics</a> or the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/28" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/28">Thunder</a> will be crowned champions in June, explaining why they've attracted the second- and third-most bets. However, parity has risen in the league over the last few years. Wagering on a non-favorite is worth the investment.</p><h3>Eastern Conference 1st-round betting insights</h3><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Series</th>
<th>Series price</th>
<th>Handle %</th>
<th>Bet %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Celtics/Magic</td>
<td> Celtics -6000/Magic +1800</td>
<td>Celtics 52.8%</td>
<td>Magic 76.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Knicks/Pistons</td>
<td>Knicks -400/Pistons +290</td>
<td>Pistons 83.1%</td>
<td>Pistons 91.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Pacers/Bucks</td>
<td>Pacers -200/Bucks+170</td>
<td>Bucks 70.4%</td>
<td>Bucks 83.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p>The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/8" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/8">Pistons</a> are the most bet first-round series winner among playoff teams. Skepticism surrounding the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/3" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/3">Knicks</a> is high after they finished 0-10 against the Celtics, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/7" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/7">Cavaliers</a>, and Thunder. They also went 1-3 against the Pistons in the regular season, although I've noted those records are missing some important <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3263492" href="https://thescore.com/news/3263492">context</a>.</p><p>While more money is on the Celtics, the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/14" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/14">Magic</a> attracted more bets at an incredibly long price. Bettors must feel it's worth wagering on a first-round long shot, especially with the uncertain status of <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/45455" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/45455">Jaylen Brown</a>'s knee. Still, oddsmakers assign the Celtics a 98% implied probability to advance to the second round.</p><p>I expected bettors to be more split on the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/9" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/9">Pacers</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/10" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/10">Bucks</a> series. However, because the Pacers are (wrongfully, in my opinion) listed as substantial favorites, bettors are siding with the Bucks and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30611" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30611">Giannis Antetokounmpo</a>, the most dominant player in the series, to pull off the upset.</p><h3>Western Conference 1st-round betting insights</h3><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Series</th>
<th>Series price</th>
<th>Handle %</th>
<th>Bet %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Rockets/Warriors</td>
<td> Rockets +150/Warriors -175</td>
<td>Rockets 89.6%</td>
<td>Rockets 93.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Lakers/Wolves</td>
<td>Lakers -200/+160</td>
<td>Lakers 73.5%</td>
<td>Lakers 66%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nuggets/Clippers</td>
<td>Nuggets even/Clippers -120</td>
<td>Nuggets 60%</td>
<td>Clippers 63.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p>The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/22" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/22">Rockets</a> have less playoff experience than any Western Conference playoff team, but that's not dissuading bettors. Houston defeated Golden State in two out of its three matchups against <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/148" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/148">Steph Curry</a> while holding him to 36% shooting from the floor and limiting the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/16" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/16">Warriors</a> to 97 points per game. The Rockets' physicality clearly bothered Curry, but can they overcome their inexperience against a group with championship DNA? The implied probability indicates the Warriors have a 63% chance of advancing.</p><p>As is the case in the championship market, bettors are unsurprisingly backing <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/68198" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/68198">Luka Doncic</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/72" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/72">LeBron James</a> to defeat <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/93912" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/93912">Anthony Edwards</a> and the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/27" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/27">Timberwolves</a> even though the Lakers are somewhat hefty favorites - oddsmakers give them a 66% implied probability.</p><p>The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/26" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/26">Nuggets</a> opened as slight favorites against the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/17" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/17">Clippers</a>, but bettors quickly pounced on the underdogs, forcing sportsbooks to move the line in Los Angeles' favor. The Clippers are the second-most-bet first-round series winner, but there's more money on Denver.</p><p>Los Angeles won 17 of its last 20 games and has been one of the NBA's best teams the past two months, while the dysfunctional and inconsistent Nuggets fired their coach and general manager in the final week of the regular season. However, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37604" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37604">Nikola Jokic</a> remains the world's best player, setting up a thrilling series that has garnered a plethora of action.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/30999807/related

Lakers popular title pick; bettors hammering Pistons in 1st round

On Tuesday, we previewed the Western Conference first-round matchups and provided our favorite be...

<p>On Tuesday, we <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3267833" href="https://thescore.com/news/3267833">previewed</a> the Western Conference first-round matchups and provided our favorite bets. Later this week, we'll discuss series-long player props worth wagering on and key players who could determine series outcomes.</p><p>First, it's time to preview the three determined Eastern Conference first-round showdowns. The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/7" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/7">Cavaliers</a> will play the winner of Friday's <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/11" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/11">Hawks</a>-<a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/13" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/13">Heat</a> game. Cleveland will be a massive favorite in a likely short series.</p><h3>No. 2 Celtics (-6000) vs. No. 7 Magic (+1800)</h3><p>This series is one of the few foregone conclusions in a first round featuring incredibly competitive matchups. As the odds indicate, there's no chance the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/14" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/14">Magic</a> will win or even compete against the defending champion <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/1" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/1">Celtics</a>.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>Injuries have destroyed Orlando's once-promising season. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/102767" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/102767">Paolo Banchero</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/96086" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/96086">Franz Wagner</a> missed significant time, but both are back. However, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/96087" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/96087">Jalen Suggs</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/45014" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/45014">Mo Wagner</a> are out for the season. For the second consecutive campaign, the Magic had one of the NBA's worst offenses, including a dead-last ranking in 3-point shooting. The free-agent addition of <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/11367" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/11367">Kentavious Caldwell-Pope</a> was supposed to help the Magic's shooting woes, but instead, he had one of the worst offensive seasons of his career.</p><p>The Magic win games because of their second-ranked defense. They have individual defenders capable of guarding Boston's stars one-on-one - essential to limiting the Celtics' drive-and-kick offense predicated on beating defenders off the dribble and getting into the lane.</p><p>The problem is that the Celtics have too many offensive weapons for the Magic to contain. Boston's offense is virtually unstoppable with as many talented perimeter players as it has. Orlando's offense can't keep up, especially against the Celtics' fourth-best defense.</p><p>The Celtics limited <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/45455" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/45455">Jaylen Brown</a>'s workload down the stretch as he dealt with a knee injury that required injections. While that's something to monitor and could hinder the Celtics' chances to repeat, it won't impact their chances against the Magic.</p><p>The talent gap is too large for Orlando to overcome, leading to a uncompetitive series that should be over in four or five games at most.</p><p><strong>Pick: Celtics series spread -3.5 (+130), Celtics to win in five games (+175)</strong></p><h3>No. 3 Knicks (-400) vs. No. 6 Pistons (+290)</h3><p>More bettors are on the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/8" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/8">Pistons</a> than the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/3" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/3">Knicks</a> on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet. In fact, the Pistons are the most popular first-round selection of any series. I understand why there are so many Knicks skeptics. New York went 0-8 against the Celtics and Cavs. However, as I <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3263492" href="https://thescore.com/news/3263492">previously explained</a>, the Knicks were missing at least one starter in four of those games, and two full-strength matchups were back in October.</p><p>Well, didn't the Pistons already beat the Knicks in three out of four games? Sure, but New York was without at least one starter in two of those three losses as well.</p><p>New York is relatively healthy entering the playoffs. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/45223" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/45223">Jalen Brunson</a> hasn't looked completely like himself since returning from an ankle injury earlier in April, but he's had a week to recover leading up to Game 1. He's also been one of the league's best and most clutch playoff performers over the last couple of postseasons, so there shouldn't be any worries about his readiness.</p><p>For all the analysis about how the Knicks will counter the Pistons targeting Brunson and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37817" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37817">Karl-Anthony Towns</a> defensively by putting <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30695" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30695">Josh Hart</a> on screener <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/102754" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/102754">Jalen Duren</a> or the various pre-switching they'll implement, the series prognosis is pretty simple. Whoever has the better players will almost always win a seven-game series. The Knicks have four of the five best players in the series, with <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/96056" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/96056">Cade Cunningham</a> as the lone Piston.</p><p>The Knicks will do everything to get the ball out of Cunningham's hands, forcing <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/44947" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/44947">Malik Beasley</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/6332" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/6332">Tobias Harris</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/110235" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/110235">Ausar Thompson</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/121707" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/121707">Ron Holland</a>, Duren, and others to make plays, many of whom don't have playoff experience. </p><p>Cunningham is an established star, but this is his first playoff run, where he'll see different coverages and adjustments designed to eliminate his strengths. Other teams could expose the Knicks' defensive vulnerabilities with Brunson and Towns, but the Pistons' offense has been merely average. Detroit's toughness and rebounding could trouble the Knicks at times, but New York is the significantly better team.</p><p><strong>Pick: Knicks series spread -1.5 (-145), Under 5.5 total games (even)</strong></p><h3>No. 4 Pacers (-200) vs. No. 5 Bucks (+170)</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/5343" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/5343">Damian Lillard</a>'s health is a significant factor in this series. While he'll begin the series sidelined, he's <a href="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/44684806/bucks-damian-lillard-miss-start-nba-playoffs-sources-say">reportedly</a> recovering well from a blood clot and could return at some point. However, blood clots aren't a simple injury, so it's fair to assume Lillard will miss the first round.</p><p>Last year, the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/9" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/9">Pacers</a> beat the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/10" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/10">Bucks</a> in the opening round, but Milwaukee was without <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30611" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30611">Giannis Antetokounmpo</a> the entire series, and Lillard only played four games. Yet, the Bucks still pushed the series to six games. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/93893" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/93893">Tyrese Haliburton</a> struggled, averaging 16 points per game on 43% shooting from the field and 29% from three.</p><p>This season, Antetokounmpo has had one of his most dominant years and has been on a tear the past few months. The Bucks are entering the playoffs on an eight-game winning streak without Lillard.</p><p>Antetokounmpo is the best player in this series by a monumental margin. While <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/39061" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/39061">Pascal Siakam</a> will start out guarding the Greek Freak and numerous Pacers will take turns while their defense loads up in help, Indiana can't guard his freight-train presence.</p><p>The Pacers' defense has improved over the last few months, and Haliburton returned to All-Star form, but Antetokounmpo is good enough to will the Bucks to a win. He must receive help from his questionable supporting cast, including <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/300" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/300">Brook Lopez</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37799" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37799">Kyle Kuzma</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30845" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30845">Bobby Portis</a>, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/70216" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/70216">Kevin Porter Jr.</a> I'm willing to take that gamble against a Pacers group that made a fraudulent Eastern Conference finals run last season.</p><p><strong>Pick: Bucks to win series (+170)</strong></p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

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Eastern Conference 1st-round betting preview

The NBA playoffs are upon us. Much has changed throughout the NBA landscape since the season tipp...

<p>The NBA playoffs are upon us. Much has changed throughout the NBA landscape since the season tipped off in October, but the arduous journey for contending teams is just beginning. </p><p>We're breaking down the Western Conference playoff series and providing our favorite bets. The only series we're not discussing is the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/28" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/28">Thunder</a>'s first-round matchup. They'll play the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/23" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/23">Grizzlies</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/20" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/20">Kings</a>, or <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/21" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/21">Mavericks</a> in the opening round, but that won't be determined until Friday night. Regardless of the opponent, the Thunder, who are -145 favorites to make the NBA Finals, will be a gigantic favorite.</p><h3>No. 2 Rockets (+160) vs. No. 7 Warriors (-190) </h3><p>The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/22" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/22">Rockets</a> went from a team that didn't qualify for the play-in tournament last season to the second-best record in the West. Head coach Ime Udoka has done a phenomenal job developing a young group and building a physical defense.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>This is a difficult matchup for the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/16" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/16">Warriors</a>. Houston has recently implemented a ginormous lineup featuring <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/96113" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/96113">Alperen Sengun</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/24302" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/24302">Steven Adams</a>. As a result, the Rockets lead the NBA in rebounding and offensive rebounding percentage.</p><p>The Warriors mostly play small lineups with <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/2982" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/2982">Draymond Green</a> at center. Although Golden State is a top-eight team in defensive rebounding, the Rockets should dominate the offensive glass, creating extra possessions.</p><p>Houston has a ton of tenacious physical defenders to throw at <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/148" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/148">Steph Curry</a>, including <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/110271" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/110271">Amen Thompson</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/39256" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/39256">Dillon Brooks</a>, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/102780" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/102780">Tari Eason</a>. It held the two-time MVP under 20 points in two of the three games it faced him, including a 1-for-10 shooting effort in a win over the Warriors earlier this month. Curry was visibly frustrated by the Rockets' physicality. In those games, Golden State's offense averaged 97 points, a significant drop-off from its usual 113 points per game.</p><p>However, playoff basketball is a different beast. It's hard to succeed without having gone through previous postseason battles. The experience gap between the Warriors and Rockets is akin to Tom Brady facing a college quarterback in the Super Bowl. Six of Houston's top eight scorers, including its two best players - Sengun and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/96116" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/96116">Jalen Green</a> - have never appeared in a playoff game.</p><p>Not only are the Rockets without playoff scars, but they don't have a go-to option late in games. Green is their leading scorer, but he's not an elite creator and struggles with efficiency. As a result, Houston had one of the worst clutch offenses among playoff teams.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Warriors are 23-7 with <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/2809" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/2809">Jimmy Butler</a>, who has fit seamlessly in Golden State's system. Since the All-Star break, the Warriors have the league's best defense and the seventh-best offense. Despite the Rockets' toughness and physicality, their experience and talent don't compare to the Warriors'.</p><p><strong>Pick</strong>: <strong>Warriors series spread -1.5 (-110), Warriors to win 4-2 (+290)</strong></p><h3>No. 3 Lakers (-200) vs. No. 6 Timberwolves (+160)</h3><p>Less than a year ago, the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/27" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/27">Timberwolves</a> mistakenly switched a <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/68198" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/68198">Luka Doncic</a> ball screen, leaving <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30615" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30615">Rudy Gobert</a> on an island as the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/21" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/21">Mavericks</a> trailed by two with a few seconds remaining. Doncic took advantage of the slow-footed big, stepping back and drilling a 3-pointer to gift the Mavs a 2-0 series lead. Dallas eventually defeated Minnesota to earn a trip to the Finals.</p><p>A lot has changed since then. Most notably, Doncic now plays for the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/18" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/18">Lakers</a>. But he'll still have opportunities to embarrass Gobert, with the Lakers facing the Wolves in the opening round. Gobert will play an instrumental role in the outcome of this series - more specifically, how much Minnesota opts to play him against small lineups.</p><p>The Lakers don't have a dependable center on their roster, so they often implement small-ball lineups featuring <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/53163" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/53163">Rui Hachimura</a> at center. With five shooters on the floor - Hachimura shoots 41% from three - the Wolves will have to match Los Angeles' smaller lineups because of Gobert's inability to guard the perimeter.</p><p>L.A. has a questionable defense with limited rim protection and vulnerable perimeter defenders. The Wolves will put Doncic in action and make him defend, which Mavs general manager Nico Harrison <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3268022" href="https://thescore.com/news/3268022">insists</a> is the reason he was traded. Los Angeles' plan will involve blitzing and doubling <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/93912" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/93912">Anthony Edwards</a>, who led the NBA in clutch points this season. He's had mixed results as a playmaker out of double teams. This series will ultimately come down to the offensive production of <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/31118" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/31118">Julius Randle</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/45225" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/45225">Donte DiVincenzo</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/69736" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/69736">Naz Reid</a>, and the rest of the Wolves' supporting cast.</p><p>On the other side of the ball, the Wolves have the sixth-best defense. But they don't have enough capable defenders to limit the Lakers' trio of Doncic, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/72" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/72">LeBron James</a>, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/96101" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/96101">Austin Reaves</a>, all of whom average at least 20 points.</p><p>The track record and playoff experience of the Lakers' stars are too great to ignore. They have three legitimate late-game options on offense, and Doncic and James are two of the best and smartest playmakers ever. Meanwhile, Randle's playoff history isn't pretty.</p><p>The Lakers have the third-best clutch 3-point percentage and seventh-best clutch offense. While these games should be competitive, there are more reasons to trust L.A. in crunch time.</p><p><strong>Pick: Lakers series spread -1.5 (+120)</strong></p><h3>No. 4 Nuggets (even) vs. No. 5 Clippers (-120)</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/52287" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/52287">Ivica Zubac</a> has emerged as one of the NBA's best centers and a stalwart defensively. He'll be tasked with guarding the world's best player, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37604" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37604">Nikola Jokic</a>. But this series won't be about Jokic, who will likely generate ungodly numbers as usual. The question is: How will the other Nuggets perform?</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/44995" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/44995">Jamal Murray</a> will ultimately decide the outcome. He went on a brilliant run as Jokic's co-star en route to the 2023 NBA Finals, but it's been mostly downhill for him since. Murray struggled in last year's playoffs, scoring 18.4 points per game on 40% shooting in Denver's second-round los to Minnesota in the second round.</p><p>The Nuggets guard got off to another slow start this season before re-emerging as a prolific scorer and shot-creator in February and March. However, Murray injured his hamstring at the end of March and returned for only two games. Denver needs Murray at full strength, but how can anyone trust his health or consistency?</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/60530" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/60530">Michael Porter Jr.</a>, Denver's third-leading scorer, also disappeared in last year's postseason, averaging 10.7 points on 37% shooting in the Minnesota series. Porter just had the best regular season of his career, but it's hard to anticipate which version of him will show up in the postseason.</p><p>Remember, the Nuggets fired head coach Michael Malone and general manager Calvin Booth in the final week of the regular season. That means interim head coach David Adelman, who's never led an NBA team, will roam Denver's sidelines.</p><p>Over the last 15 games, the Clippers have the league's best net rating, best offense, and third-best defense. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/4200" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/4200">Kawhi Leonard</a> isn't as impactful as Jokic, but he's playing at an All-NBA level and is the healthiest he's been entering the postseason since the 2020 bubble. The non-superstars will determine the outcome, and the Clippers have more reliable help.</p><p>The Clippers' four-man lineup of Leonard, Zubac, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/351" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/351">James Harden</a>, and<a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/12144" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/12144"> Norman Powell</a> rivals any in the NBA, outscoring opponents by 15.6 points per 100 possessions. </p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30810" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30810">Aaron Gordon</a> will initially guard Leonard. When the Nuggets force the ball out of Leonard's hands with double-teams, his teammates are capable of taking advantage of four-on-three situations and finding great shooters. Los Angeles leads the league in 3-point percentage over the last 15 games.</p><p>The Clippers have won 17 of their last 20 games. Between its shooting, defense, coaching edge, and trustworthy secondary players, L.A. will <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3267330" href="https://thescore.com/news/3267330">advance</a> to the second round.</p><p><strong>Pick: Clippers to win series (-120), series to go 7 games (+200)</strong></p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

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Western Conference 1st-round betting preview

Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. The adage applies to everyone teased and ...

<p>Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. The adage applies to everyone teased and tricked by the possibilities of a healthy <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/4200" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/4200">Kawhi Leonard</a> in a <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/17" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/17">Clippers</a> uniform, only to end up with egg on their face after his season inevitably ends with an injury.</p><p>Leonard hasn't finished the last four seasons and has only appeared in four playoff games since the 2020-21 season. He played two games in the first round each of the past two postseasons before being shut down with knee injuries.</p><p>But I'm ready to be fooled again after watching the Clippers surface as the league's best team over the last month, including Leonard's return as one of the league's most dynamic players. The "best team" label isn't hyperbole; the Clippers have the best net rating, best offense, and third-best defense over the last 15 games. They've ranked in the top three in defense all season.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>For all the matchup analysis and schematic approach, sometimes playoff series and championship runs come down to who has the best player on the floor. Leonard was exactly that during the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/5" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/5">Raptors</a>' 2019 championship run - the last time Leonard finished a non-bubble season healthy.</p><p>The Clippers opened the campaign at +10000 to win the Finals and +5000 to win the West as Leonard began the year sidelined. Los Angeles is currently down to +1500 to win the West and +3300 to win the championship on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet. However, oddsmakers aren't totally buying the Clippers' late-season surge. The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/28" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/28">Thunder</a> (-150), <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/18" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/18">Lakers</a> (+600), <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/16" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/16">Warriors</a> (+700), and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/26" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/26">Nuggets</a> (+1100) all have better odds to come out of the West, and the Clippers have received fewer bets than each of them.</p><p>The NBA playoffs are often a chalk event. The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/1" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/1">Celtics</a> and Thunder may likely advance to the Finals as overwhelming favorites. However, in this parity-driven NBA, it's worth striking on a sleeper instead of taking the team with the shortest odds. We targeted the undervalued <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/3" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/3">Knicks</a> <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3263492" href="https://thescore.com/news/3263492">out east</a> and believe the Clippers could make a run in the West.</p><p>(Side note: theScoreBet/ESPN Bet offers a market for the championship-winning state, and California is +600. Three legitimate West contenders - the Lakers, Clippers, and Warriors - reside in the Golden State. That's an interesting option as those three teams are top-five favorites in the West.)</p><p>Leonard only played 37 games this season, returning in January as a less explosive, slower version of himself. But the two-time Finals MVP regained form by March. Sitting the first few months helped him enter the playoffs as the healthiest he's been in years.</p><p>Since the beginning of March, Leonard has averaged more than 26 points on over 50% shooting from the field and over 40% from three. His explosion is back, as he forcefully gets to his spots and rises over defenders. He's also increased his trips to the free-throw line - a sign he's driving to the basket more. He attempted 1.7 free throws per game in January, while he shot 4.4 per game in March.</p><p>Leonard's re-emergence as one of the league's best players isn't the only reason the Clippers can make a run. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/351" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/351">James Harden</a> has played at an All-NBA level, recording his highest scoring average since 2020-21. Most NBA fans will scoff at the notion that Harden, a notorious playoff sellout and perpetual underperformer in big moments, could help a team make a championship run. However, he'll have less responsibility during this playoff run than any other.</p><p>Harden was the focal point during Houston's playoff runs, and while he was second fiddle with the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/4" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/4">76ers</a>, he played alongside an unproven playoff star in <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/31932" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/31932">Joel Embiid</a>. Leonard is a proven, clutch playoff performer, meaning Harden can sometimes take a back seat. Of course, Harden still needs to contribute effectively, but there won't be as much pressure on him as years past.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/12144" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/12144">Norman Powell</a> has also played at an All-Star level, averaging 21.8 points on 41% 3-point shooting. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/52287" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/52287">Ivica Zubac</a> has been one of the NBA's premier two-way centers this season, averaging nearly 17 points and over 12 rebounds while in contention for Defensive Player of the Year.</p><p>Leonard, Harden, Powell, and Zubac outscore opponents by 15.6 points per 100 possessions when they share the floor, which would rank at the top of the league in net rating. Add <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/45396" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/45396">Derrick Jones Jr.</a> or <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/24864" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/24864">Kris Dunn</a> as the fifth guy, and their net rating remains outstanding. The Clippers have unlocked an elite lineup that can rival any contender. </p><p>Yet, the Clippers are underdogs (even) against the Nuggets (-120). Although the gap isn't enormous when Leonard is healthy, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37604" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37604">Nikola Jokic</a> is undoubtedly the best player in the series. But Denver's supporting cast, which has let down Jokic in previous playoff runs, isn't as reliable as Los Angeles'. The Clippers' physical, high-intensity defense and coaching edge should limit Jokic's teammates.</p><p>The Nuggets and Clippers didn't face each other with Leonard on the court this season, but <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30810" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30810">Aaron Gordon</a> is expected to initially guard L.A.'s star. He's a strong, athletic defender who could give Leonard fits, and the Nuggets will undoubtedly send double-teams his way. Leonard's teammates are good playmakers who can take advantage of four-on-three situations, and they have reliable shooters all over (Los Angeles leads the league in 3-point percentage over the last 15 games).</p><p>The Clippers would also be underdogs in a potential second-round matchup against the Thunder, but this is a long-shot pick for a reason. L.A. has the defensive length and versatility to limit <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/60411" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/60411">Shai Gilgeous-Alexander</a> and force the Thunder's supporting cast to beat it. But let's not get ahead of ourselves just yet.</p><p>The Clippers have the superstar, shooting, defense, coaching, and reliable ensemble to make a deep playoff run. Of course, that's assuming we aren't fooled by Leonard's recent stretch of good health.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/30976592/related

Clippers deserve more respect as Western Conference contender

The NBA world's love affair with the 2023-24 Knicks was built on admiration for their toughness a...

<p>The NBA world's love affair with the 2023-24 <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/3" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/3">Knicks</a> was built on admiration for their toughness and underdog attitude. New York traded toughness for talent last offseason, however, and the 2024-25 Knicks haven't resonated the same way.</p><p>Last year, winning 50 games was a remarkable, unexpected achievement for the team. This 51-win season - marking the organization's first consecutive 50-win seasons since 1994 and 1995 - feels underwhelming by comparison. After all, the Knicks entered the campaign with championship aspirations for the first time in decades following the acquisitions of <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37879" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37879">Mikal Bridges</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37817" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37817">Karl-Anthony Towns</a>.</p><p>The Knicks were +300 to win the East and +700 to win the Finals in October. Despite earning the 3-seed and a first-round matchup against the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/8" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/8">Pistons</a>, New York is now +1000 to win the East (the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/1" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/1">Celtics</a> are -155 and the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/7" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/7">Cavaliers</a> are +190) and +3000 to win the championship, tied for the sixth-best odds.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>The Knicks are -400 favorites over the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/8" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/8">Pistons</a> but would be massive underdogs to the Celtics in the second round. Oddsmakers see the East as a two-horse race between Boston and Cleveland. Bettors are even less enthusiastic about New York's chances. Over 42% of the bets to win the East on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet are on the Cavs or Celtics, and the Knicks aren't even third: The Bucks and Pistons have received more bets.</p><p>It's easy to see why Knicks fever has broken, but bettors and oddsmakers are wrong to write them off as a nonfactor in the Eastern Conference playoff race. One jarring stat has last year's full bandwagon looking empty: New York is 0-10 against the Celtics, Cavs, and Thunder, the NBA's three best teams.</p><p>The 0-8 mark against the Cavaliers and Celtics is particularly concerning, but for context, four of those losses came when the Knicks were without at least one starter. Two of the four losses at full strength were during the Knicks' first three games as they incorporated two new starters.</p><p>Some of those losses do illustrate a real weakness: The Knicks' lack of depth makes their playoff run especially vulnerable to being derailed by an injury. New York's starters played over 200 more minutes than any other five-man lineup in the NBA. All five starters ranked in the top 40 in total minutes; Bridges led the entire league, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30695" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30695">Josh Hart</a> was right behind him in second place.</p><p>Tom Thibodeau's stubbornness and the Knicks' unreliable bench contributed to the starters' absurd workload. However, the five-man group of <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/45223" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/45223">Jalen Brunson</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/46480" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/46480">OG Anunoby</a>, Bridges, Hart, and Towns was exceptional, especially offensively. They had the second-best offensive rating among lineups that played at least 400 minutes together.</p><p>The Knicks are relatively healthy entering the playoffs and have a week off to rest, recover, and prepare. Overall, the Knicks had the NBA's fifth-best offense, which deserves more respect from oddsmakers.</p><p>Besides New York's depth issues, there are two big reasons people are skeptical of the Knicks' playoff chances. The first is their defense. Last season, New York had a top-10 defense and the league's best rebounding percentage. Trading for Towns and playing him at center sacrificed the Knicks' defensive tenacity for offensive prowess. Their defense is around league average, and they barely scratch the top 10 in rebounding percentage.</p><p>Simply put, Towns can't play center on an elite defensive team. He's constantly targeted in the pick-and-roll as a poor rim-protector and questionable defender in space. The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/27" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/27">Timberwolves</a> were at their best defensively when Towns played the four alongside a towering five like <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30615" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30615">Rudy Gobert</a>.</p><p>Playoff basketball is about hunting mismatches, and opponents will target Towns and Brunson. The Celtics, New York's likely second-round matchup, are better at hunting mismatches than any other team. Brunson and Towns will consistently find themselves in actions; it's Thibodeau's job to find ways to hide them. Anunoby and Bridges defend lead guards and wings, and Hart guards up multiple positions. However, Bridges has disappointed as an on-ball defender: He hasn't contained the ball and navigated screens at the same level he did in previous years.</p><p>The Knicks have a potential bandage to stop the inevitable bleeding: center <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/62053" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/62053">Mitchell Robinson</a>, who returned from a foot injury in February but plays fewer than 20 minutes per game. Although it's a limited sample size, the Knicks allow five fewer points per 100 possessions when Robinson is on the floor. New York has been reluctant to use lineups that include Towns and Robinson - they've played just 47 minutes together with varying degrees of success - but it might be time to sacrifice some offense for defense if teams dominate the Knicks at the rim.</p><p>The Knicks' other glaring issue is Bridges' offensive role. His numbers are understandably down as his usage rate and field-goal attempts dropped while playing alongside All-NBA-caliber teammates. However, the former Net is underutilized in the Knicks' offense. Much like Anunoby, who scored the second-most spot-up points in the NBA, Bridges has been relegated to the corner while New York cues up pick-and-rolls on repeat with Brunson and Towns. Yes, the Knicks are the league's most efficient pick-and-roll offense, but they're also one-dimensional.</p><p>Bridges can operate as a spot-up player, drilling catch-and-shoot threes and attacking closeouts, but limiting him to that role doesn't capitalize on his strengths. He's a dynamic creator who deserves more on-ball duties while providing relief for Brunson, who can also excel off the ball.</p><p>When Brunson missed 14 games late in the season, Bridges showcased just that. The seven-year vet averaged 22 points per game during that stretch, up from his 17-point season average. He's at his best when he gets a head of steam going downhill, either attacking the rim or seeking his spots for a pull-up jumper.</p><p>New York rarely runs designs for Bridges when he shares the floor with Brunson. More pick-and-roll reps, handoffs, and zoom actions would give the team more variety and unpredictability on offense. The Knicks have a ton of mouths to feed among their starters, and Bridges deserves his fair share. Brunson is a brilliant playoff performer, but Bridges' production may ultimately determine how far the Knicks advance.</p><p>Although there are good reasons to expect the Knicks to exit the postseason before the conference finals for the third straight year, there's a simple case for optimism: Their starting five rivals the Celtics' as the NBA's most gifted. With two All-NBA players and a supporting cast that can emulate All-Stars on any given night, there shouldn't be a drastic gap between the top two teams in the East and the Knicks' title odds.</p><p>At some point, it's worth betting on a team as talented as the Knicks when everyone's penciled in Celtics-Cavs for the Eastern Conference finals.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/30969099/related

Are oddsmakers and bettors overlooking the Knicks?

The NBA play-in tournament begins in less than a week, but the Western Conference's playoff pictu...

<p>The NBA play-in tournament begins in less than a week, but the Western Conference's playoff picture won't be decided until Sunday's regular-season finale. </p><p>The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/28" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/28">Thunder</a> are in first place with a 13-game lead over the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/22" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/22">Rockets</a>, who have earned the 2-seed by winning 15 of their last 17 contests. Houston has the league's second-best net rating over the last 15 games.</p><p>The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/18" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/18">Lakers</a> only have a one-game lead over the 4-seed after Tuesday night's loss to Oklahoma City. With the standings changing nightly in the Wild Wild West, it's almost impossible to predict how the rest of the conference shakes out, but the odds tell us who might avoid the play-in.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><h3>Western Conference playoff picture and odds</h3><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Seed</th>
<th>Team</th>
<th>Record</th>
<th>Odds to make/miss playoffs</th>
<th>Odds to be in West play-in</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>3.</td>
<td>Lakers</td>
<td>48-31</td>
<td>-20000/+3000</td>
<td>+600</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4.</td>
<td>Clippers</td>
<td>47-32</td>
<td>-1600/+700</td>
<td>+100</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5.</td>
<td>Nuggets</td>
<td>47-32</td>
<td>-5000/+1300</td>
<td>-105</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6.</td>
<td>Warriors</td>
<td>47-32</td>
<td>-15000/+2000</td>
<td>+450</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7.</td>
<td>Grizzlies</td>
<td>47-32</td>
<td>-900/+475</td>
<td>-160</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>8.</td>
<td>Timberwolves</td>
<td>46-33</td>
<td>-2500/+900</td>
<td>+115</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9.</td>
<td>Kings</td>
<td>39-40</td>
<td>+300/-475</td>
<td>N/A</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10.</td>
<td>Mavericks</td>
<td>38-41</td>
<td>+600/-1400</td>
<td>N/A</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p><em>Odds via theScore Bet/ESPN Bet</em></p><p>One game separates the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/26" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/26">Nuggets</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/17" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/17">Clippers</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/16" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/16">Warriors</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/27" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/27">Timberwolves</a>, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/23" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/23">Grizzlies</a>, who could all end up as high as the 4-seed or as low as the 8-seed and potentially miss out on the playoffs with a poor play-in tournament performance.</p><p>If there's a five-way tie for the 4-seed, the standings are:</p><ul>
<li>4. Timberwolves</li>
<li>5. Clippers</li>
<li>6. Warriors</li>
<li>7. Nuggets</li>
<li>8. Grizzlies</li>
</ul><p>The Timberwolves, who won 14 of their last 18 outings, had the best chance of attaining the 4-seed before their collapse against the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/10" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/10">Bucks</a> on Tuesday. However, the Wolves own the tiebreaker and have the easiest remaining schedule - two of their final three matchups are against the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/2" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/2">Nets</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/30" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/30">Jazz</a>, explaining their 46% implied probability to be in the play-in. </p><p>The Warriors<span style="margin:0px; padding:0px; text-align:left"> have the<strong> </strong>shortest odds of making the playoffs among the five teams and</span> have the second-easiest schedule. Golden State is 22-5 with <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/2809" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/2809">Jimmy Butler</a> in the lineup and is tied for the league's best defense since the All-Star break.</p><p>The Clippers have won 15 of their last 18 games, carried by <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/4200" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/4200">Kawhi Leonard</a>'s return to All-Star form. L.A. also has the third-best net rating in the West this season. </p><p>Los Angeles has even odds of competing in the play-in because of remaining games against the Rockets, Warriors, and Kings. However, the Clippers have discovered a nearly unstoppable combination in Leonard, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/351" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/351">James Harden</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/12144" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/12144">Norman Powell</a>, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/52287" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/52287">Ivica Zubac</a>. Those four outscore opponents by 15.6 points per 100 possessions when they share the court.</p><p>That leaves the Nuggets and the Grizzlies with the best chance of appearing in the play-in. The Nuggets fired their coach and general manager on Tuesday, signaling they don't feel equipped to win this season. Denver is 11-13 since the All-Star break, has a bottom-third defense in that span, and has lost its last four contests. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/44995" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/44995">Jamal Murray</a> has also missed the past five outings with a hamstring injury. </p><p>While the 4-seed is still within reach, the Nuggets have a better chance of ending up in the play-in than earning home-court advantage in the first round. They have a 25% chance of finishing as the 7-seed and a 15% chance at the fourth, fifth, or eighth seed.</p><p>After Malone's dismissal, the Nuggets' championship odds moved from +2200 to +3000. They're now +1100 to win the West behind the Thunder (-140), Lakers (+525), and Warriors (+625).</p><p>While the 7-seed isn't guaranteed a playoff spot, it might present the best path for Denver. The Nuggets would play the Rockets in the opening round, who have little playoff experience and a less stacked lineup, <em>and</em> they'd avoid the Thunder in the second round. Since the play-in tournament began, a 7-seed has never missed the playoffs. However, a<strong> </strong>play-in team has won a postseason series in only two out of 16 tries.</p><p>The Grizzlies have the highest probability of taking a trip to the play-in. Like the Nuggets, the Grizzlies fired their coach late in the season, hoping it would give them a boost heading into the playoffs. It's had the opposite effect. Although Memphis won three straight, the team is trending in the wrong direction after a 7-8 stretch in its last 15 games.</p><p>The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/20" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/20">Kings</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/21" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/21">Mavericks</a>, whose seasons were headlined by trading away franchise cornerstones, are locked into the No. 9 and 10 seeds and must win two games in the play-in tournament to earn the 8-seed. No 10-seed has ever made the playoffs, but three 9-seeds have snuck in since the event began in 2021.</p><p>Sacramento and Dallas will likely miss out on the playoffs, but one of those teams will play either the Clippers, Nuggets, Wolves, Warriors, or Grizzlies in a win-and-in game next Friday - and one of the latter five clubs would be favored to win the matchup.</p><p>Buckle up, NBA fans. The late-season drama is far from over.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/30911359/related

Western Conference playoff odds: Are Nuggets slipping after Malone firing?

Houston led Florida for nearly 39 minutes of Monday's national championship. But two days after b...

<p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/471" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/471">Houston</a> led <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/380" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/380">Florida</a> for nearly 39 minutes of Monday's national championship. But two days after being the beneficiary of a last-minute collapse, Houston fell victim to one. The Cougars didn't score a single point in the final two minutes, allowing the Gators to storm back and win their third national title in program history.</p><p>While the celebration roars on in Gainesville, it's never too early to start thinking about next season. Over 1,500 players are already in the transfer portal, and eliminated teams began assembling next year's roster weeks ago.</p><p>It's harder than ever to project which teams will contend for titles with the lack of roster continuity due to NIL and the portal, especially as fewer schools rely on freshmen. (None played in the national championship.) However, the top programs usually reload and contend annually. So, who's favored to cut down the nets in Indianapolis one year from now?</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><h3>2026 national title odds</h3><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Team</th>
<th>Odds</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Duke</td>
<td>+1000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Houston</td>
<td>+1200</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>UConn</td>
<td>+1400</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Purdue</td>
<td>+1500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Louisville</td>
<td>+1600</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>BYU</td>
<td>+1700</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Arkansas</td>
<td>+1800</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Kansas</td>
<td>+1800</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Auburn</td>
<td>+2000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Kentucky</td>
<td>+2000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alabama</td>
<td>+2000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Florida</td>
<td>+2500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>St. John's</td>
<td>+2500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Michigan</td>
<td>+2500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Texas Tech</td>
<td>+2500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>UCLA</td>
<td>+2500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tennessee</td>
<td>+2800</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Gonzaga</td>
<td>+3000</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/329" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/329">Duke</a> is still recovering from a devastating Final Four collapse, but it's expected to return to the mountaintop next season.</p><p>Like most years in Durham, North Carolina, there will be excitement entering the winter. Duke has the top-ranked recruiting class, including highly touted twin prospects Cayden and Cameron Boozer. But as we saw this year, inexperience from even the most talented freshmen can lead to late-game horrors.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/103281" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/103281">Tyrese Proctor</a>'s and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/162167" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/162167">Isaiah Evans</a>' futures are question marks, but the Blue Devils will never struggle to recruit transfers with a war chest of funds.</p><p>As Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson expressed following his team's loss, this group was as equipped to cut down the nets as any he's coached. Next year's roster will look different and rely on more freshmen, as the Cougars bring in three top-20 prospects. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/103134" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/103134">Emanuel Sharp</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/110355" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/110355">Joseph Tugler</a> may return as well. Houston is the best program in the country to not have a national title. With the second-best odds, it will have another opportunity next year to accomplish the ultimate feat.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/280" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/280">UConn</a>'s failed bid at a three-peat will motivate head coach Dan Hurley to return to glory. After an up-and-down season, the Huskies are bringing back solid players and acquired <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/413" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/413">Georgia</a>'s <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/110707" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/110707">Silas Demary Jr.</a> in the portal. Their ceiling depends on whether <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/102538" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/102538">Alex Karaban</a> returns or moves on to the NBA.</p><p>Nearly all of <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/872" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/872">Purdue</a>'s impactful players are expected to return following this year's Sweet 16 trip. The Boilermakers will be back in the title picture with unusual roster continuity and the addition of key transfers.</p><p>While Florida fans probably aren't worried about next year's outlook just yet, the Gators are down on the oddsboard. They'll likely lose their four best players: <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/96362" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/96362">Walter Clayton Jr.</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/85616" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/85616">Alijah Martin</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/96288" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/96288">Will Richard</a>, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/110701" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/110701">Alex Condon</a>. Although a repeat may seem reasonable after UConn's back-to-back titles in 2023 and 2024, the Huskies made it look easier than it is. There's a reason there have only been two repeat champions this century (Florida was the other in 2006 and 2007).</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/589" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/589">Louisville</a>'s and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/659" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/659">Michigan</a>'s new coaches built foundations for success in Year 1. Both schools have made splashes in the portal, as has<a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/1011" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/1011"> St. John's</a>. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/155" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/155">BYU</a> landed the top-ranked freshman, AJ Dybantsa. With a balanced roster around Dybantsa, the Cougars will earn their fair share of preseason attention and could be in the championship mix.</p><p>As is the case every year, some acclaimed teams will fall flat and under-the-radar groups will soar up the rankings and oddsboard. However, it's usually a good bet that the blue bloods will be in the picture.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/30896282/related

2026 CBB national championship odds: Familiar faces back in the picture

You're not the only one still attempting to decipher how Duke isn't playing for a national title ...

<p>You're not the only one still attempting to decipher how <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/329" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/329">Duke</a> isn't playing for a national title after a complete collapse in the final minute. But now Monday night's championship matchup is set between <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/471" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/471">Houston</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/380" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/380">Florida</a>, two of the nation's top teams all season. Let's dive into our preview and pick.</p><h3>No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 Florida (-1.5, O/U 140.5)</h3><p>Florida's resiliency has trumped its head coach's and various players' inexperience. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/86" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/86">Auburn</a> punched the Gators in the mouth, including heading into halftime with an eight-point lead. But Florida doesn't get knocked down. Thanks to Todd Golden's sharp adjustments, the squad completed a comeback win for the second straight game and dominated Auburn in the second half.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/96362" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/96362">Walter Clayton Jr.</a>'s shotmaking somehow becomes more impressive every contest. He became the first player since Larry Bird to score at least 30 points in the Elite Eight and Final Four. He's the best player in Monday's title game and the favorite (-110) to win Most Outstanding Player.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>Duke led Houston by 14 with roughly eight minutes remaining in the Final Four showdown. The Cougars' offense struggled to keep pace with the Blue Devils, a problem many forecasted heading into the contest. However, it didn't matter with a defense as tough and physical as Houston's. The Cougars held Duke to 67 points, the Blue Devils' lowest point total since Jan. 25. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/162169" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/162169">Cooper Flagg </a>had a typical Flagg outing - 27 points, seven assists, four rebounds - but only one other Duke player reached double figures.</p><p>It was a matchup between the nation's best defense and the top offense. Ultimately, defense prevailed. And that's why Florida could be in trouble.</p><p>For all of Florida's offensive brilliance - it has the country's second-best offense - it's yet to play a defense as physically daunting as Houston's. The Cougars have the perimeter defenders to slow down Clayton and the Gators' other guards.</p><p>Florida took advantage of the rebounding battle against Auburn, an area it has dominated in most games. The Gators have the fourth-best offensive rebounding rate in the nation, but it's hard to gain extra possessions against Houston, which has a top-20 total rebounding rate and frequently grabs offensive boards. The Cougars should win if they neutralize Florida's rebounding strength and limit second-chance points.</p><p>Oddsmakers have loved the Gators for weeks, and they've largely been right. But Houston should be favored as the better overall team in this matchup (unfortunately, I also said that about Auburn).</p><p>The Cougars often experience offensive lulls, but their defense has carried them to 31 wins in their last 32 games. I'd expect Houston's defense to prevent Florida from getting into its actions and limit the Gators' guards. The Cougars will likely trap and double Clayton (his under 22.5 points on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet in jurisdictions that allow player props is worth a look), forcing Florida's bigs and other contributors to make plays. Houston flies around in its rotations, so the Gators, particularly <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/85616" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/85616">Alijah Martin</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/96288" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/96288">Will Richard</a>, must catch fire from three to win. While it shot 38% against Auburn, Florida is just a 35% 3-point shooting team.</p><p>The Cougars' defense and toughness have brought them this far. It'll lead them to one more win and a celebration in San Antonio.</p><p><strong>Pick: Houston +1.5</strong></p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/30885964/related

National championship betting preview: Florida slightly favored over Houston

NCAA Tournament purists complaining about the lack of Cinderellas should retract their statements...

<p>NCAA Tournament purists complaining about the lack of Cinderellas should retract their statements after four No. 1 seeds earned Final Four trips for the first time since 2008. The event is at its best when the top teams make it to the final stage, creating thrilling matchups when the stakes are the highest. This could be one of the most memorable Final Fours and championships as the four best teams descend on San Antonio.</p><p>We already wrote about potential <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3256606" href="https://thescore.com/news/3256606">Most Outstanding Player</a> winners. Now, let's get to Saturday evening's two matchups with our picks for who will play in Monday's national championship.</p><h3>No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 1 Florida (-2.5, O/U 159.5)</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/87250" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/87250">Johni Broome</a>'s health is the storyline entering the Final Four matchup between these SEC foes. The All-American injured his non-shooting elbow in <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/86" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/86">Auburn</a>'s Elite Eight victory over Michigan State but returned later in the game. While something to monitor, it's unlikely to impact his or the Tigers' performance.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>Auburn coasted past its competition en route to the Final Four. Before losing three of its final four games entering the NCAA Tournament, Auburn was the most dominant team all season. It's fair to wonder if the right team is favored.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/380" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/380">Florida</a> defeated Auburn 90-81 in February, which likely factored into this spread. However, that was an off night for Auburn's guards. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/96188" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/96188">Denver Jones</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/85291" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/85291">Chad Baker-Mazara</a>, who average more than 10 points per game, combined for eight against the Gators. Auburn shot worse than usual from three, while Florida shot better from distance. The Tigers are a 37.8% 3-point shooting squad, but they connected on only 31% of their looks. The Gators are a 35% 3-point shooting team and made 39% of their threes in the initial matchup. The 3-point shooting variance should revert closer to the norm in this matchup.</p><p>Florida is the fourth-best offensive rebounding team in the country, but Auburn has the personnel to limit Florida's big-man depth. The Tigers outrebounded the Gators on the offensive glass in their first contest.</p><p>It's difficult to find more even opponents in the Final Four. Gators point guard <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/96362" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/96362">Walter Clayton Jr.</a> is the best clutch shotmaker in this game, which could be the difference. But Auburn has more guard depth, a better defense, and the more experienced coach. Let's roll with the Tigers.</p><p><strong>Pick: Auburn +2.5</strong></p><h3>No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 Duke (-5.5, O/U 136.5)</h3><p>How can a team that's lost one game since Dec. 1 - a one-point overtime loss to eventual Elite Eight finalist <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/1079" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/1079">Texas Tech</a> - be a 5.5-point underdog to anyone? Well, it's possible when its opponent is the nation's most talented squad and has the second-best net rating in college basketball history.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/471" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/471">Houston</a> has lost four games all season, all by five points or less. Three of its four losses came in overtime. But <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/329" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/329">Duke</a> has destroyed its competition. It went 19-1 in the ACC and has won its four tournament games by an average margin of 23.5. Its most impressive win was a 20-point Elite Eight victory over Alabama, the nation's sixth-best team.</p><p>Duke has the No. 1 offense in the country while Houston has the No. 1 defense. It's a clash between two conflicting styles. While Duke's offense touts three projected top-10 picks, its defense stood out against Alabama. The Blue Devils held the fourth-best offense in the country to 65 points and 35% shooting from the field with a connected, physical defense that prevented dribble penetration and made quick rotations.</p><p>Kelvin Sampson's defensive schemes and Houston's physicality present a nightmare for opposing offenses, but it hasn't seen an offense with as much firepower as Duke's. Everyone in the Blue Devils' rotation fits into their roles perfectly, and they move the ball exceptionally well while relying on NBA-ready talents <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/162169" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/162169">Cooper Flagg</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/162168" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/162168">Kon Knueppel</a> to carry the scoring load. It's hard to imagine any defense in the country could shut down Duke.</p><p>Offensively, Houston relies on a balanced scoring attack among <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/84316" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/84316">L.J. Cryer</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/103134" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/103134">Emanuel Sharp</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/103081" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/103081">Milos Uzan</a>, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/76186" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/76186">J'Wan Roberts</a>. However, there have been times when Houston's offense hits a lull and depends on its defense to earn wins. That happened in the Sweet 16 against Purdue when the Cougars scored only 62 points and won on a last-second shot against a porous Boilermakers' defense. Houston will have a tough time scoring and competing against Duke if the Blue Devils showcase the same defensive intensity they did against Alabama.</p><p>Houston has the coaching and roster to pull off the upset, but Duke has a better chance at beating the Cougars by double digits than Houston winning outright.</p><p><strong>Pick: Duke -5.5</strong></p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

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Final Four picks: Can Auburn pull off the upset? 

Four No. 1 seeds represented in the Final Four should create thrilling games, and it means many o...

<p>Four No. 1 seeds represented in the Final Four should create thrilling games, and it means many of the nation's most talented players will compete in San Antonio. That creates a complicated Most Outstanding Player race, the award given to the best player in the Final Four and championship, typically from the national title-winning team.</p><p>Let's take a look at some of this year's contenders. </p><h3>Most Outstanding Player odds</h3><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Player</th>
<th>Odds</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Cooper Flagg</td>
<td>+105</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Walter Clayton Jr.</td>
<td>+375</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Johni Broome</td>
<td>+800</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L.J. Cryer</td>
<td>+1000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Milos Uzan</td>
<td>+1500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tahaad Pettiford</td>
<td>+2000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Kon Knueppel</td>
<td>+2200</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alijah Martin</td>
<td>+2500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Emanuel Sharp</td>
<td>+2500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>J'Wan Roberts</td>
<td>+3000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Will Richard</td>
<td>+4000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tyrese Proctor</td>
<td>+6000</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p>Unsurprisingly, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/162169" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/162169">Cooper Flagg</a> is the favorite. He's not only the best player on the four remaining teams, but <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/329" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/329">Duke</a> has the best odds to cut down the nets as a +105 favorite on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>While Flagg isn't the only projected lottery pick on Duke's roster, he's the best and most impactful player. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/162168" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/162168">Kon Knueppel</a> is the second-leading scorer and will likely be a top-10 pick in the draft.</p><p>Knueppel certainly can - and has - outplayed Flagg in recent games, but there's almost no scenario where Duke wins and Flagg doesn't earn the honor. Flagg averages 18.9 points, 7.5 boards, and more than four assists per game on 37% 3-point shooting. However, betting on Flagg at such a short price is risky when his team must win two games for consideration. Hakeem Olajuwon was the last losing player to win Most Outstanding Player in 1983.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/380" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/380">Florida</a> has the second-best odds to win the title at +285, leading to <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/96362" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/96362">Walter Clayton Jr</a>., the Gators' best player, having the second-best odds (+375) to capture Most Outstanding Player. Clayton's late-game heroics against <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/1079" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/1079">Texas Tech</a>, when he drilled two threes to cap off a 9-0 run with less than four minutes remaining, propelled the Gators to the Final Four.</p><p>Clayton has led Florida in scoring in three of its four tourney games while averaging 22.3 points in the Big Dance. Florida is a 2.5-point favorite over <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/86" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/86">Auburn</a> but would be an underdog against Duke in a potential championship showdown. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/96288" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/96288">Will Richard</a> (+4000), who led the Gators in scoring against <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/627" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/627">Maryland</a>, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/85616" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/85616">Alijah Martin</a> (+2500) are the other Florida guards with a chance.</p><p>The odds drop significantly after Flagg and Clayton because oddsmakers doubt <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/471" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/471">Houston</a> or Auburn will win the title.</p><p>There's value for bettors who disagree with the books. Auburn's <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/87250" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/87250">Johni Broome</a> finished the season as the National Player of the Year favorite.</p><p>Broome left Auburn's Elite Eight game against <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/660" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/660">Michigan State</a> with an elbow injury before returning later in the second half. He'll almost certainly play in the Final Four, and the injury to his non-shooting elbow shouldn't impact the All-American's performance.</p><p>Auburn is an underdog against Florida and would also be against Houston or Duke in the final, explaining Broome's long odds (+800). <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/162002" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/162002">Tahaad Pettiford</a> (+2000) is the next-closest Tiger on the oddsboard. While Auburn has great guard depth, Broome is its engine as a physical forward who can score at three levels. He'd be my long-shot pick.</p><p>Finally, Houston has two guards with top-five odds. It's a 5.5-point underdog against Duke, but it's good enough to leave San Antonio on top of the college basketball world. The Cougars rely on a balanced scoring attack from their top guys. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/84316" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/84316">L.J. Cryer</a> (+1000) is their leading scorer, averaging 15.4 points. They have four players averaging between 10 and 16 points, including <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/103081" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/103081">Milos Uzan</a> (+1500) at 11.6 per game.</p><p>Although <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/103134" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/103134">Emanuel Sharp</a> (+2500) averages more points than Uzan, the latter is Houston's primary playmaker and leads the squad in assists. Cryer has averaged 16.8 points and four assists in the tournament, while Uzan has averaged 12.8 points and five assists.</p><p>Betting on Flagg is essentially betting on the Blue Devils to win the tournament, but the wiser wager is Duke (+100) at nearly equal odds in case of the slight chance Knueppel (+2200) explodes and Flagg struggles in the final two games. </p><p>I believe Auburn has a better chance of beating Florida than oddsmakers believe. If the Tigers win, Broome's odds will be cut in half. So, Broome is my pick to earn Most Outstanding Player.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

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Most Outstanding Player odds: Is it Flagg's award to lose?

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