We've already previewed the East and West first-round series. With the playoffs tipping off Satur...

<p>We've already previewed the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3268785" href="https://thescore.com/news/3268785">East</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3267833" href="https://thescore.com/news/3267833">West</a> first-round series. With the playoffs tipping off Saturday, let's evaluate seven players who will make or break their team's chances in the first round and whether we're backing or fading them.</p><h3>Rockets: Jalen Green</h3><p>Experience could hold the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/22" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/22">Rockets</a> back this postseason after a surprisingly impressive regular season. Most of the their top contributors, including <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/96116" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/96116">Jalen Green</a>, have zero playoff experience.</p><p>The Rockets are without a reliable closer and won't have the best player in any series. Houston also had the fifth-worst clutch offense among playoff teams and a negative net rating. Green can catch fire for stretches, but he's wildly inefficient, shooting 42% from the field with a 54.4% true shooting percentage - 13th-worst among players who average at least 30 minutes per game.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>When the Rockets need someone to score late, Green is the obvious choice as an athletic guard who can create for himself. But he shot an abysmal 37% in the clutch during the regular season.</p><p>As coverages hone in on Green, I expect him to struggle in his first taste of the postseason. His series-long points per game prop is 22, a surprising number considering he averaged fewer than that in the regular season and playoff stats are typically worse.</p><p><strong>Verdict: Bail on Green</strong></p><h3>Warriors: Steph Curry</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/148" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/148">Steph Curry</a> is the greatest shooter ever, but the Rockets have minimized his impact this season in a way no other club has. Curry failed to score 20 points in two of his three games against Houston and shot 36% across those three contests. He scored three points on 1-for-10 shooting in the most recent matchup.</p><p>The Rockets' array of defenders face guarding Curry along with their off-ball physicality disturbed the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/16" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/16">Warriors</a>' point guard. Houston blitzed his ball screens, forcing the ball out of his hands. Although his gravity created opportunities for his teammates in those situations, the Warriors need Curry to be Curry to defeat the Rockets.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/110271" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/110271">Amen Thompson</a> will start on Curry, but Houston has multiple strong, athletic defenders to throw his way. The officiating will impact this series, specifically how much physicality the Rockets get away with.</p><p>Few teams possess the defensive personnel to guard Curry like the Rockets. Still, the Warriors will find ways to create easier looks for him and dismantle the Rockets' defensive strategy. It's almost impossible to imagine one of the generation's greatest players becoming inconsequential.</p><p>His series-long points per game prop is 25.5 because the Rockets successfully limited his scoring output previously. However, Curry averaged at least 26 points in five of his last six playoff series and holds a career average of 27 points per game over 147 playoff games. Let's bank on that experience.</p><p><strong>Verdict: Bet on Curry</strong></p><h3>Lakers: Austin Reaves</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/96101" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/96101">Austin Reaves</a> is the NBA's best third option, but it certainly helps that he plays alongside future Hall of Famers <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/72" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/72">LeBron James</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/68198" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/68198">Luka Doncic</a>, who command as much defensive attention as anyone in the league. </p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/18" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/18">Lakers</a> head coach JJ Redick constantly runs actions to provide Reaves with open looks, exhibiting his trust in the budding star. Reaves can easily exploit mismatches when the two best defenders typically guard Doncic or James. </p><p>Reaves averaged career highs of 20.2 points and 14.2 field goal attempts this season. His series-long prop is 19.5, which he should soar past as the Wolves' primarily focus on the Lakers' two superstars.</p><p><strong>Verdict: Bet on Reaves</strong></p><h3>Timberwolves: Julius Randle</h3><p>It's been a rocky ride throughout <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/31118" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/31118">Julius Randle</a>'s first season in Minnesota. After stumbling out of the gates, the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/27" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/27">Timberwolves</a> (and Randle) finished the season strong, winning 16 of their final 20 games.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/93912" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/93912">Anthony Edwards</a> led the NBA in clutch points, and it's no secret the Wolves' offense goes through him. However, the Lakers' game plan will include blitzing his ball screens and often sending a second defender his way. That places added responsibility on Minnesota's others, including Randle, the Wolves' second-leading scorer, who's sometimes been a questionable fit alongside Edwards.</p><p>Randle thrives on driving to the rim and backing down defenders with his patented bully-ball approach, but he's an inconsistent 3-point shooter, drilling just 34% of his looks this season. He must hit threes at a higher rate to stretch out Los Angeles' defense.</p><p>The 11-year vet has notoriously struggled in his 15 career playoff games. He's averaged 17.1 points on 34% shooting in the playoffs. To be fair, he was the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/3" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/3">Knicks</a>' primary option in his first playoff stint and dealt with an injury in his second. Will he turn his playoff troubles around in his third appearance with a new team? There's good reason to believe Randle's offensive style isn't meant for the playoffs. His series-long points per game prop is 18.5.</p><p><strong>Verdict: Bail on Randle</strong></p><h3>Nuggets: Jamal Murray</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37604" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37604">Nikola Jokic</a> can't do it all himself. Although <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/52287" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/52287">Ivica Zubac</a> can contain Jokic better than most, the world's best player will still dominate. Jokic's series-long points per game prop is 28, which he's exceeded in four of his last five playoff series. </p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/44995" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/44995">Jamal Murray</a> is the Nuggets' only other reliable scorer and creator, but he hasn't always functioned as such over the last two seasons. Murray was a primary reason for Denver's postseason run being cut short last year. He also started this campaign slowly before increasing his production in February and March. However, injuries are a huge part of Murray's story. He missed a stretch in April with a hamstring injury before returning for the final two regular-season games.</p><p>Despite the talent, it's hard to find reasons to trust Murray's health or playoff performance, especially against the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/17" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/17">Clippers</a>' third-best defense with sturdy perimeter defenders. Murray's series-long points per game prop is 19, which he failed to reach in last year's second-round series loss to Minnesota. </p><p><strong>Verdict: Bail on Murray</strong></p><h3>Knicks: Karl-Anthony Towns</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37817" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37817">Karl-Anthony Towns</a>' playoff transgressions are well documented. However, he improved during last year's postseason run with the Wolves, including cutting down his boneheaded fouling that cost Minnesota in previous seasons. The Pistons should be incredibly physical with Towns, and the Knicks can't afford to have him in foul trouble with their minimal depth.</p><p>Towns has been as advertised in New York as an offensive juggernaut who creates an unstoppable pick-and-roll duo with <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/45223" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/45223">Jalen Brunson</a>. Both guys are vulnerable defending ball screens but make up for it offensively.</p><p>Brunson's series-long points prop is 27.5, which he's exceeded in his last three playoff series. While that's also worth a look, the Pistons don't have the personnel to stop Towns, whose series-long points prop is 22.5. He's never met that mark in a postseason series; he's averaged 18.8 points in 32 playoff games. Yet, Towns averaged 24.4 points per game this season and should consistently have matchup advantages against Detroit.</p><p><strong>Verdict: Bet on Towns</strong></p><h3>Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/5343" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/5343">Damian Lillard</a>'s return date will ultimately decide the series, but the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/9" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/9">Pacers</a> need <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/93893" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/93893">Tyrese Haliburton</a>, who re-emerged as an All-Star in the second half of the season, to flourish regardless of who's on the floor.</p><p>The Pacers escaped the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/10" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/10">Bucks</a>, who were without <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30611" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30611">Giannis Antetokounmpo</a>, during the first round last year despite Haliburton struggling. He averaged 16 points on 43% shooting from the field and 29% from three. His points per game prop in this year's matchup is 18.5.</p><p>The Bucks have various defenders, including <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30845" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30845">Bobby Portis</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/70216" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/70216">Kevin Porter Jr.</a>, to throw at Haliburton and bother him with their physicality. If he struggles again, the Pacers will go home earlier than last postseason.</p><p><strong>Verdict: Bail on Haliburton</strong></p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/31010116/related

Bet or Bail: Seven key players who will determine 1st-round matchups

As the NBA's play-in tournament concludes Friday night and the eighth seed in each conference is ...

<p>As the NBA's play-in tournament concludes Friday night and the eighth seed in each conference is determined, bettors have been wagering on the opening-round matchups and the championship winner. Let's take a look at the odds for the NBA playoffs and bettor behavior so far.</p><h3>NBA Finals betting insights</h3><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Team</th>
<th>% of bets</th>
<th>% of handle</th>
<th>Title odds</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Lakers</td>
<td>17%</td>
<td>19.5%</td>
<td>+1300</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Celtics</td>
<td>15.3%</td>
<td>16.8%</td>
<td>+190</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Thunder</td>
<td>14.3%</td>
<td>16.6%</td>
<td>+180</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Cavaliers</td>
<td>12.3%</td>
<td>10.6%</td>
<td>+575</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nuggets</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
<td>+3000</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p><em>Insight via theScore Bet/ESPN Bet</em></p><p>Despite having the fourth-best odds, the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/18" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/18">Lakers</a> are the most popular title pick among bettors. That's not exactly a surprise; the Lakers are the NBA's most popular franchise and have two of the league's best and most popular players. They also have a favorable path to make it out of the West. Understandably, bettors are pulling the trigger on a relatively long price, making Los Angeles a liability for sportsbooks.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>Realistically, the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/1" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/1">Celtics</a> or the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/28" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/28">Thunder</a> will be crowned champions in June, explaining why they've attracted the second- and third-most bets. However, parity has risen in the league over the last few years. Wagering on a non-favorite is worth the investment.</p><h3>Eastern Conference 1st-round betting insights</h3><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Series</th>
<th>Series price</th>
<th>Handle %</th>
<th>Bet %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Celtics/Magic</td>
<td> Celtics -6000/Magic +1800</td>
<td>Celtics 52.8%</td>
<td>Magic 76.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Knicks/Pistons</td>
<td>Knicks -400/Pistons +290</td>
<td>Pistons 83.1%</td>
<td>Pistons 91.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Pacers/Bucks</td>
<td>Pacers -200/Bucks+170</td>
<td>Bucks 70.4%</td>
<td>Bucks 83.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p>The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/8" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/8">Pistons</a> are the most bet first-round series winner among playoff teams. Skepticism surrounding the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/3" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/3">Knicks</a> is high after they finished 0-10 against the Celtics, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/7" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/7">Cavaliers</a>, and Thunder. They also went 1-3 against the Pistons in the regular season, although I've noted those records are missing some important <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3263492" href="https://thescore.com/news/3263492">context</a>.</p><p>While more money is on the Celtics, the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/14" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/14">Magic</a> attracted more bets at an incredibly long price. Bettors must feel it's worth wagering on a first-round long shot, especially with the uncertain status of <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/45455" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/45455">Jaylen Brown</a>'s knee. Still, oddsmakers assign the Celtics a 98% implied probability to advance to the second round.</p><p>I expected bettors to be more split on the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/9" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/9">Pacers</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/10" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/10">Bucks</a> series. However, because the Pacers are (wrongfully, in my opinion) listed as substantial favorites, bettors are siding with the Bucks and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30611" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30611">Giannis Antetokounmpo</a>, the most dominant player in the series, to pull off the upset.</p><h3>Western Conference 1st-round betting insights</h3><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Series</th>
<th>Series price</th>
<th>Handle %</th>
<th>Bet %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Rockets/Warriors</td>
<td> Rockets +150/Warriors -175</td>
<td>Rockets 89.6%</td>
<td>Rockets 93.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Lakers/Wolves</td>
<td>Lakers -200/+160</td>
<td>Lakers 73.5%</td>
<td>Lakers 66%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nuggets/Clippers</td>
<td>Nuggets even/Clippers -120</td>
<td>Nuggets 60%</td>
<td>Clippers 63.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p>The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/22" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/22">Rockets</a> have less playoff experience than any Western Conference playoff team, but that's not dissuading bettors. Houston defeated Golden State in two out of its three matchups against <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/148" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/148">Steph Curry</a> while holding him to 36% shooting from the floor and limiting the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/16" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/16">Warriors</a> to 97 points per game. The Rockets' physicality clearly bothered Curry, but can they overcome their inexperience against a group with championship DNA? The implied probability indicates the Warriors have a 63% chance of advancing.</p><p>As is the case in the championship market, bettors are unsurprisingly backing <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/68198" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/68198">Luka Doncic</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/72" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/72">LeBron James</a> to defeat <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/93912" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/93912">Anthony Edwards</a> and the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/27" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/27">Timberwolves</a> even though the Lakers are somewhat hefty favorites - oddsmakers give them a 66% implied probability.</p><p>The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/26" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/26">Nuggets</a> opened as slight favorites against the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/17" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/17">Clippers</a>, but bettors quickly pounced on the underdogs, forcing sportsbooks to move the line in Los Angeles' favor. The Clippers are the second-most-bet first-round series winner, but there's more money on Denver.</p><p>Los Angeles won 17 of its last 20 games and has been one of the NBA's best teams the past two months, while the dysfunctional and inconsistent Nuggets fired their coach and general manager in the final week of the regular season. However, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37604" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37604">Nikola Jokic</a> remains the world's best player, setting up a thrilling series that has garnered a plethora of action.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/30999807/related

Lakers popular title pick; bettors hammering Pistons in 1st round

On Tuesday, we previewed the Western Conference first-round matchups and provided our favorite be...

<p>On Tuesday, we <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3267833" href="https://thescore.com/news/3267833">previewed</a> the Western Conference first-round matchups and provided our favorite bets. Later this week, we'll discuss series-long player props worth wagering on and key players who could determine series outcomes.</p><p>First, it's time to preview the three determined Eastern Conference first-round showdowns. The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/7" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/7">Cavaliers</a> will play the winner of Friday's <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/11" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/11">Hawks</a>-<a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/13" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/13">Heat</a> game. Cleveland will be a massive favorite in a likely short series.</p><h3>No. 2 Celtics (-6000) vs. No. 7 Magic (+1800)</h3><p>This series is one of the few foregone conclusions in a first round featuring incredibly competitive matchups. As the odds indicate, there's no chance the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/14" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/14">Magic</a> will win or even compete against the defending champion <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/1" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/1">Celtics</a>.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>Injuries have destroyed Orlando's once-promising season. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/102767" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/102767">Paolo Banchero</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/96086" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/96086">Franz Wagner</a> missed significant time, but both are back. However, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/96087" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/96087">Jalen Suggs</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/45014" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/45014">Mo Wagner</a> are out for the season. For the second consecutive campaign, the Magic had one of the NBA's worst offenses, including a dead-last ranking in 3-point shooting. The free-agent addition of <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/11367" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/11367">Kentavious Caldwell-Pope</a> was supposed to help the Magic's shooting woes, but instead, he had one of the worst offensive seasons of his career.</p><p>The Magic win games because of their second-ranked defense. They have individual defenders capable of guarding Boston's stars one-on-one - essential to limiting the Celtics' drive-and-kick offense predicated on beating defenders off the dribble and getting into the lane.</p><p>The problem is that the Celtics have too many offensive weapons for the Magic to contain. Boston's offense is virtually unstoppable with as many talented perimeter players as it has. Orlando's offense can't keep up, especially against the Celtics' fourth-best defense.</p><p>The Celtics limited <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/45455" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/45455">Jaylen Brown</a>'s workload down the stretch as he dealt with a knee injury that required injections. While that's something to monitor and could hinder the Celtics' chances to repeat, it won't impact their chances against the Magic.</p><p>The talent gap is too large for Orlando to overcome, leading to a uncompetitive series that should be over in four or five games at most.</p><p><strong>Pick: Celtics series spread -3.5 (+130), Celtics to win in five games (+175)</strong></p><h3>No. 3 Knicks (-400) vs. No. 6 Pistons (+290)</h3><p>More bettors are on the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/8" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/8">Pistons</a> than the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/3" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/3">Knicks</a> on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet. In fact, the Pistons are the most popular first-round selection of any series. I understand why there are so many Knicks skeptics. New York went 0-8 against the Celtics and Cavs. However, as I <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3263492" href="https://thescore.com/news/3263492">previously explained</a>, the Knicks were missing at least one starter in four of those games, and two full-strength matchups were back in October.</p><p>Well, didn't the Pistons already beat the Knicks in three out of four games? Sure, but New York was without at least one starter in two of those three losses as well.</p><p>New York is relatively healthy entering the playoffs. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/45223" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/45223">Jalen Brunson</a> hasn't looked completely like himself since returning from an ankle injury earlier in April, but he's had a week to recover leading up to Game 1. He's also been one of the league's best and most clutch playoff performers over the last couple of postseasons, so there shouldn't be any worries about his readiness.</p><p>For all the analysis about how the Knicks will counter the Pistons targeting Brunson and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37817" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37817">Karl-Anthony Towns</a> defensively by putting <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30695" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30695">Josh Hart</a> on screener <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/102754" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/102754">Jalen Duren</a> or the various pre-switching they'll implement, the series prognosis is pretty simple. Whoever has the better players will almost always win a seven-game series. The Knicks have four of the five best players in the series, with <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/96056" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/96056">Cade Cunningham</a> as the lone Piston.</p><p>The Knicks will do everything to get the ball out of Cunningham's hands, forcing <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/44947" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/44947">Malik Beasley</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/6332" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/6332">Tobias Harris</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/110235" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/110235">Ausar Thompson</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/121707" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/121707">Ron Holland</a>, Duren, and others to make plays, many of whom don't have playoff experience. </p><p>Cunningham is an established star, but this is his first playoff run, where he'll see different coverages and adjustments designed to eliminate his strengths. Other teams could expose the Knicks' defensive vulnerabilities with Brunson and Towns, but the Pistons' offense has been merely average. Detroit's toughness and rebounding could trouble the Knicks at times, but New York is the significantly better team.</p><p><strong>Pick: Knicks series spread -1.5 (-145), Under 5.5 total games (even)</strong></p><h3>No. 4 Pacers (-200) vs. No. 5 Bucks (+170)</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/5343" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/5343">Damian Lillard</a>'s health is a significant factor in this series. While he'll begin the series sidelined, he's <a href="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/44684806/bucks-damian-lillard-miss-start-nba-playoffs-sources-say">reportedly</a> recovering well from a blood clot and could return at some point. However, blood clots aren't a simple injury, so it's fair to assume Lillard will miss the first round.</p><p>Last year, the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/9" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/9">Pacers</a> beat the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/10" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/10">Bucks</a> in the opening round, but Milwaukee was without <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30611" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30611">Giannis Antetokounmpo</a> the entire series, and Lillard only played four games. Yet, the Bucks still pushed the series to six games. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/93893" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/93893">Tyrese Haliburton</a> struggled, averaging 16 points per game on 43% shooting from the field and 29% from three.</p><p>This season, Antetokounmpo has had one of his most dominant years and has been on a tear the past few months. The Bucks are entering the playoffs on an eight-game winning streak without Lillard.</p><p>Antetokounmpo is the best player in this series by a monumental margin. While <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/39061" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/39061">Pascal Siakam</a> will start out guarding the Greek Freak and numerous Pacers will take turns while their defense loads up in help, Indiana can't guard his freight-train presence.</p><p>The Pacers' defense has improved over the last few months, and Haliburton returned to All-Star form, but Antetokounmpo is good enough to will the Bucks to a win. He must receive help from his questionable supporting cast, including <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/300" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/300">Brook Lopez</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37799" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37799">Kyle Kuzma</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30845" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30845">Bobby Portis</a>, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/70216" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/70216">Kevin Porter Jr.</a> I'm willing to take that gamble against a Pacers group that made a fraudulent Eastern Conference finals run last season.</p><p><strong>Pick: Bucks to win series (+170)</strong></p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

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Eastern Conference 1st-round betting preview

The NBA playoffs are upon us. Much has changed throughout the NBA landscape since the season tipp...

<p>The NBA playoffs are upon us. Much has changed throughout the NBA landscape since the season tipped off in October, but the arduous journey for contending teams is just beginning. </p><p>We're breaking down the Western Conference playoff series and providing our favorite bets. The only series we're not discussing is the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/28" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/28">Thunder</a>'s first-round matchup. They'll play the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/23" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/23">Grizzlies</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/20" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/20">Kings</a>, or <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/21" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/21">Mavericks</a> in the opening round, but that won't be determined until Friday night. Regardless of the opponent, the Thunder, who are -145 favorites to make the NBA Finals, will be a gigantic favorite.</p><h3>No. 2 Rockets (+160) vs. No. 7 Warriors (-190) </h3><p>The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/22" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/22">Rockets</a> went from a team that didn't qualify for the play-in tournament last season to the second-best record in the West. Head coach Ime Udoka has done a phenomenal job developing a young group and building a physical defense.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>This is a difficult matchup for the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/16" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/16">Warriors</a>. Houston has recently implemented a ginormous lineup featuring <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/96113" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/96113">Alperen Sengun</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/24302" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/24302">Steven Adams</a>. As a result, the Rockets lead the NBA in rebounding and offensive rebounding percentage.</p><p>The Warriors mostly play small lineups with <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/2982" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/2982">Draymond Green</a> at center. Although Golden State is a top-eight team in defensive rebounding, the Rockets should dominate the offensive glass, creating extra possessions.</p><p>Houston has a ton of tenacious physical defenders to throw at <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/148" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/148">Steph Curry</a>, including <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/110271" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/110271">Amen Thompson</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/39256" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/39256">Dillon Brooks</a>, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/102780" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/102780">Tari Eason</a>. It held the two-time MVP under 20 points in two of the three games it faced him, including a 1-for-10 shooting effort in a win over the Warriors earlier this month. Curry was visibly frustrated by the Rockets' physicality. In those games, Golden State's offense averaged 97 points, a significant drop-off from its usual 113 points per game.</p><p>However, playoff basketball is a different beast. It's hard to succeed without having gone through previous postseason battles. The experience gap between the Warriors and Rockets is akin to Tom Brady facing a college quarterback in the Super Bowl. Six of Houston's top eight scorers, including its two best players - Sengun and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/96116" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/96116">Jalen Green</a> - have never appeared in a playoff game.</p><p>Not only are the Rockets without playoff scars, but they don't have a go-to option late in games. Green is their leading scorer, but he's not an elite creator and struggles with efficiency. As a result, Houston had one of the worst clutch offenses among playoff teams.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Warriors are 23-7 with <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/2809" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/2809">Jimmy Butler</a>, who has fit seamlessly in Golden State's system. Since the All-Star break, the Warriors have the league's best defense and the seventh-best offense. Despite the Rockets' toughness and physicality, their experience and talent don't compare to the Warriors'.</p><p><strong>Pick</strong>: <strong>Warriors series spread -1.5 (-110), Warriors to win 4-2 (+290)</strong></p><h3>No. 3 Lakers (-200) vs. No. 6 Timberwolves (+160)</h3><p>Less than a year ago, the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/27" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/27">Timberwolves</a> mistakenly switched a <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/68198" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/68198">Luka Doncic</a> ball screen, leaving <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30615" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30615">Rudy Gobert</a> on an island as the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/21" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/21">Mavericks</a> trailed by two with a few seconds remaining. Doncic took advantage of the slow-footed big, stepping back and drilling a 3-pointer to gift the Mavs a 2-0 series lead. Dallas eventually defeated Minnesota to earn a trip to the Finals.</p><p>A lot has changed since then. Most notably, Doncic now plays for the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/18" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/18">Lakers</a>. But he'll still have opportunities to embarrass Gobert, with the Lakers facing the Wolves in the opening round. Gobert will play an instrumental role in the outcome of this series - more specifically, how much Minnesota opts to play him against small lineups.</p><p>The Lakers don't have a dependable center on their roster, so they often implement small-ball lineups featuring <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/53163" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/53163">Rui Hachimura</a> at center. With five shooters on the floor - Hachimura shoots 41% from three - the Wolves will have to match Los Angeles' smaller lineups because of Gobert's inability to guard the perimeter.</p><p>L.A. has a questionable defense with limited rim protection and vulnerable perimeter defenders. The Wolves will put Doncic in action and make him defend, which Mavs general manager Nico Harrison <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3268022" href="https://thescore.com/news/3268022">insists</a> is the reason he was traded. Los Angeles' plan will involve blitzing and doubling <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/93912" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/93912">Anthony Edwards</a>, who led the NBA in clutch points this season. He's had mixed results as a playmaker out of double teams. This series will ultimately come down to the offensive production of <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/31118" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/31118">Julius Randle</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/45225" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/45225">Donte DiVincenzo</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/69736" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/69736">Naz Reid</a>, and the rest of the Wolves' supporting cast.</p><p>On the other side of the ball, the Wolves have the sixth-best defense. But they don't have enough capable defenders to limit the Lakers' trio of Doncic, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/72" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/72">LeBron James</a>, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/96101" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/96101">Austin Reaves</a>, all of whom average at least 20 points.</p><p>The track record and playoff experience of the Lakers' stars are too great to ignore. They have three legitimate late-game options on offense, and Doncic and James are two of the best and smartest playmakers ever. Meanwhile, Randle's playoff history isn't pretty.</p><p>The Lakers have the third-best clutch 3-point percentage and seventh-best clutch offense. While these games should be competitive, there are more reasons to trust L.A. in crunch time.</p><p><strong>Pick: Lakers series spread -1.5 (+120)</strong></p><h3>No. 4 Nuggets (even) vs. No. 5 Clippers (-120)</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/52287" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/52287">Ivica Zubac</a> has emerged as one of the NBA's best centers and a stalwart defensively. He'll be tasked with guarding the world's best player, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37604" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37604">Nikola Jokic</a>. But this series won't be about Jokic, who will likely generate ungodly numbers as usual. The question is: How will the other Nuggets perform?</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/44995" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/44995">Jamal Murray</a> will ultimately decide the outcome. He went on a brilliant run as Jokic's co-star en route to the 2023 NBA Finals, but it's been mostly downhill for him since. Murray struggled in last year's playoffs, scoring 18.4 points per game on 40% shooting in Denver's second-round los to Minnesota in the second round.</p><p>The Nuggets guard got off to another slow start this season before re-emerging as a prolific scorer and shot-creator in February and March. However, Murray injured his hamstring at the end of March and returned for only two games. Denver needs Murray at full strength, but how can anyone trust his health or consistency?</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/60530" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/60530">Michael Porter Jr.</a>, Denver's third-leading scorer, also disappeared in last year's postseason, averaging 10.7 points on 37% shooting in the Minnesota series. Porter just had the best regular season of his career, but it's hard to anticipate which version of him will show up in the postseason.</p><p>Remember, the Nuggets fired head coach Michael Malone and general manager Calvin Booth in the final week of the regular season. That means interim head coach David Adelman, who's never led an NBA team, will roam Denver's sidelines.</p><p>Over the last 15 games, the Clippers have the league's best net rating, best offense, and third-best defense. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/4200" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/4200">Kawhi Leonard</a> isn't as impactful as Jokic, but he's playing at an All-NBA level and is the healthiest he's been entering the postseason since the 2020 bubble. The non-superstars will determine the outcome, and the Clippers have more reliable help.</p><p>The Clippers' four-man lineup of Leonard, Zubac, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/351" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/351">James Harden</a>, and<a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/12144" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/12144"> Norman Powell</a> rivals any in the NBA, outscoring opponents by 15.6 points per 100 possessions. </p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30810" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30810">Aaron Gordon</a> will initially guard Leonard. When the Nuggets force the ball out of Leonard's hands with double-teams, his teammates are capable of taking advantage of four-on-three situations and finding great shooters. Los Angeles leads the league in 3-point percentage over the last 15 games.</p><p>The Clippers have won 17 of their last 20 games. Between its shooting, defense, coaching edge, and trustworthy secondary players, L.A. will <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3267330" href="https://thescore.com/news/3267330">advance</a> to the second round.</p><p><strong>Pick: Clippers to win series (-120), series to go 7 games (+200)</strong></p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

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Western Conference 1st-round betting preview

Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. The adage applies to everyone teased and ...

<p>Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. The adage applies to everyone teased and tricked by the possibilities of a healthy <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/4200" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/4200">Kawhi Leonard</a> in a <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/17" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/17">Clippers</a> uniform, only to end up with egg on their face after his season inevitably ends with an injury.</p><p>Leonard hasn't finished the last four seasons and has only appeared in four playoff games since the 2020-21 season. He played two games in the first round each of the past two postseasons before being shut down with knee injuries.</p><p>But I'm ready to be fooled again after watching the Clippers surface as the league's best team over the last month, including Leonard's return as one of the league's most dynamic players. The "best team" label isn't hyperbole; the Clippers have the best net rating, best offense, and third-best defense over the last 15 games. They've ranked in the top three in defense all season.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>For all the matchup analysis and schematic approach, sometimes playoff series and championship runs come down to who has the best player on the floor. Leonard was exactly that during the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/5" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/5">Raptors</a>' 2019 championship run - the last time Leonard finished a non-bubble season healthy.</p><p>The Clippers opened the campaign at +10000 to win the Finals and +5000 to win the West as Leonard began the year sidelined. Los Angeles is currently down to +1500 to win the West and +3300 to win the championship on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet. However, oddsmakers aren't totally buying the Clippers' late-season surge. The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/28" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/28">Thunder</a> (-150), <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/18" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/18">Lakers</a> (+600), <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/16" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/16">Warriors</a> (+700), and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/26" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/26">Nuggets</a> (+1100) all have better odds to come out of the West, and the Clippers have received fewer bets than each of them.</p><p>The NBA playoffs are often a chalk event. The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/1" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/1">Celtics</a> and Thunder may likely advance to the Finals as overwhelming favorites. However, in this parity-driven NBA, it's worth striking on a sleeper instead of taking the team with the shortest odds. We targeted the undervalued <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/3" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/3">Knicks</a> <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3263492" href="https://thescore.com/news/3263492">out east</a> and believe the Clippers could make a run in the West.</p><p>(Side note: theScoreBet/ESPN Bet offers a market for the championship-winning state, and California is +600. Three legitimate West contenders - the Lakers, Clippers, and Warriors - reside in the Golden State. That's an interesting option as those three teams are top-five favorites in the West.)</p><p>Leonard only played 37 games this season, returning in January as a less explosive, slower version of himself. But the two-time Finals MVP regained form by March. Sitting the first few months helped him enter the playoffs as the healthiest he's been in years.</p><p>Since the beginning of March, Leonard has averaged more than 26 points on over 50% shooting from the field and over 40% from three. His explosion is back, as he forcefully gets to his spots and rises over defenders. He's also increased his trips to the free-throw line - a sign he's driving to the basket more. He attempted 1.7 free throws per game in January, while he shot 4.4 per game in March.</p><p>Leonard's re-emergence as one of the league's best players isn't the only reason the Clippers can make a run. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/351" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/351">James Harden</a> has played at an All-NBA level, recording his highest scoring average since 2020-21. Most NBA fans will scoff at the notion that Harden, a notorious playoff sellout and perpetual underperformer in big moments, could help a team make a championship run. However, he'll have less responsibility during this playoff run than any other.</p><p>Harden was the focal point during Houston's playoff runs, and while he was second fiddle with the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/4" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/4">76ers</a>, he played alongside an unproven playoff star in <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/31932" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/31932">Joel Embiid</a>. Leonard is a proven, clutch playoff performer, meaning Harden can sometimes take a back seat. Of course, Harden still needs to contribute effectively, but there won't be as much pressure on him as years past.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/12144" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/12144">Norman Powell</a> has also played at an All-Star level, averaging 21.8 points on 41% 3-point shooting. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/52287" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/52287">Ivica Zubac</a> has been one of the NBA's premier two-way centers this season, averaging nearly 17 points and over 12 rebounds while in contention for Defensive Player of the Year.</p><p>Leonard, Harden, Powell, and Zubac outscore opponents by 15.6 points per 100 possessions when they share the floor, which would rank at the top of the league in net rating. Add <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/45396" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/45396">Derrick Jones Jr.</a> or <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/24864" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/24864">Kris Dunn</a> as the fifth guy, and their net rating remains outstanding. The Clippers have unlocked an elite lineup that can rival any contender. </p><p>Yet, the Clippers are underdogs (even) against the Nuggets (-120). Although the gap isn't enormous when Leonard is healthy, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37604" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37604">Nikola Jokic</a> is undoubtedly the best player in the series. But Denver's supporting cast, which has let down Jokic in previous playoff runs, isn't as reliable as Los Angeles'. The Clippers' physical, high-intensity defense and coaching edge should limit Jokic's teammates.</p><p>The Nuggets and Clippers didn't face each other with Leonard on the court this season, but <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30810" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30810">Aaron Gordon</a> is expected to initially guard L.A.'s star. He's a strong, athletic defender who could give Leonard fits, and the Nuggets will undoubtedly send double-teams his way. Leonard's teammates are good playmakers who can take advantage of four-on-three situations, and they have reliable shooters all over (Los Angeles leads the league in 3-point percentage over the last 15 games).</p><p>The Clippers would also be underdogs in a potential second-round matchup against the Thunder, but this is a long-shot pick for a reason. L.A. has the defensive length and versatility to limit <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/60411" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/60411">Shai Gilgeous-Alexander</a> and force the Thunder's supporting cast to beat it. But let's not get ahead of ourselves just yet.</p><p>The Clippers have the superstar, shooting, defense, coaching, and reliable ensemble to make a deep playoff run. Of course, that's assuming we aren't fooled by Leonard's recent stretch of good health.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/30976592/related

Clippers deserve more respect as Western Conference contender

The NBA world's love affair with the 2023-24 Knicks was built on admiration for their toughness a...

<p>The NBA world's love affair with the 2023-24 <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/3" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/3">Knicks</a> was built on admiration for their toughness and underdog attitude. New York traded toughness for talent last offseason, however, and the 2024-25 Knicks haven't resonated the same way.</p><p>Last year, winning 50 games was a remarkable, unexpected achievement for the team. This 51-win season - marking the organization's first consecutive 50-win seasons since 1994 and 1995 - feels underwhelming by comparison. After all, the Knicks entered the campaign with championship aspirations for the first time in decades following the acquisitions of <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37879" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37879">Mikal Bridges</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/37817" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/37817">Karl-Anthony Towns</a>.</p><p>The Knicks were +300 to win the East and +700 to win the Finals in October. Despite earning the 3-seed and a first-round matchup against the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/8" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/8">Pistons</a>, New York is now +1000 to win the East (the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/1" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/1">Celtics</a> are -155 and the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/7" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/7">Cavaliers</a> are +190) and +3000 to win the championship, tied for the sixth-best odds.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>The Knicks are -400 favorites over the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/8" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/8">Pistons</a> but would be massive underdogs to the Celtics in the second round. Oddsmakers see the East as a two-horse race between Boston and Cleveland. Bettors are even less enthusiastic about New York's chances. Over 42% of the bets to win the East on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet are on the Cavs or Celtics, and the Knicks aren't even third: The Bucks and Pistons have received more bets.</p><p>It's easy to see why Knicks fever has broken, but bettors and oddsmakers are wrong to write them off as a nonfactor in the Eastern Conference playoff race. One jarring stat has last year's full bandwagon looking empty: New York is 0-10 against the Celtics, Cavs, and Thunder, the NBA's three best teams.</p><p>The 0-8 mark against the Cavaliers and Celtics is particularly concerning, but for context, four of those losses came when the Knicks were without at least one starter. Two of the four losses at full strength were during the Knicks' first three games as they incorporated two new starters.</p><p>Some of those losses do illustrate a real weakness: The Knicks' lack of depth makes their playoff run especially vulnerable to being derailed by an injury. New York's starters played over 200 more minutes than any other five-man lineup in the NBA. All five starters ranked in the top 40 in total minutes; Bridges led the entire league, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30695" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30695">Josh Hart</a> was right behind him in second place.</p><p>Tom Thibodeau's stubbornness and the Knicks' unreliable bench contributed to the starters' absurd workload. However, the five-man group of <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/45223" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/45223">Jalen Brunson</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/46480" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/46480">OG Anunoby</a>, Bridges, Hart, and Towns was exceptional, especially offensively. They had the second-best offensive rating among lineups that played at least 400 minutes together.</p><p>The Knicks are relatively healthy entering the playoffs and have a week off to rest, recover, and prepare. Overall, the Knicks had the NBA's fifth-best offense, which deserves more respect from oddsmakers.</p><p>Besides New York's depth issues, there are two big reasons people are skeptical of the Knicks' playoff chances. The first is their defense. Last season, New York had a top-10 defense and the league's best rebounding percentage. Trading for Towns and playing him at center sacrificed the Knicks' defensive tenacity for offensive prowess. Their defense is around league average, and they barely scratch the top 10 in rebounding percentage.</p><p>Simply put, Towns can't play center on an elite defensive team. He's constantly targeted in the pick-and-roll as a poor rim-protector and questionable defender in space. The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/27" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/27">Timberwolves</a> were at their best defensively when Towns played the four alongside a towering five like <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30615" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30615">Rudy Gobert</a>.</p><p>Playoff basketball is about hunting mismatches, and opponents will target Towns and Brunson. The Celtics, New York's likely second-round matchup, are better at hunting mismatches than any other team. Brunson and Towns will consistently find themselves in actions; it's Thibodeau's job to find ways to hide them. Anunoby and Bridges defend lead guards and wings, and Hart guards up multiple positions. However, Bridges has disappointed as an on-ball defender: He hasn't contained the ball and navigated screens at the same level he did in previous years.</p><p>The Knicks have a potential bandage to stop the inevitable bleeding: center <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/62053" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/62053">Mitchell Robinson</a>, who returned from a foot injury in February but plays fewer than 20 minutes per game. Although it's a limited sample size, the Knicks allow five fewer points per 100 possessions when Robinson is on the floor. New York has been reluctant to use lineups that include Towns and Robinson - they've played just 47 minutes together with varying degrees of success - but it might be time to sacrifice some offense for defense if teams dominate the Knicks at the rim.</p><p>The Knicks' other glaring issue is Bridges' offensive role. His numbers are understandably down as his usage rate and field-goal attempts dropped while playing alongside All-NBA-caliber teammates. However, the former Net is underutilized in the Knicks' offense. Much like Anunoby, who scored the second-most spot-up points in the NBA, Bridges has been relegated to the corner while New York cues up pick-and-rolls on repeat with Brunson and Towns. Yes, the Knicks are the league's most efficient pick-and-roll offense, but they're also one-dimensional.</p><p>Bridges can operate as a spot-up player, drilling catch-and-shoot threes and attacking closeouts, but limiting him to that role doesn't capitalize on his strengths. He's a dynamic creator who deserves more on-ball duties while providing relief for Brunson, who can also excel off the ball.</p><p>When Brunson missed 14 games late in the season, Bridges showcased just that. The seven-year vet averaged 22 points per game during that stretch, up from his 17-point season average. He's at his best when he gets a head of steam going downhill, either attacking the rim or seeking his spots for a pull-up jumper.</p><p>New York rarely runs designs for Bridges when he shares the floor with Brunson. More pick-and-roll reps, handoffs, and zoom actions would give the team more variety and unpredictability on offense. The Knicks have a ton of mouths to feed among their starters, and Bridges deserves his fair share. Brunson is a brilliant playoff performer, but Bridges' production may ultimately determine how far the Knicks advance.</p><p>Although there are good reasons to expect the Knicks to exit the postseason before the conference finals for the third straight year, there's a simple case for optimism: Their starting five rivals the Celtics' as the NBA's most gifted. With two All-NBA players and a supporting cast that can emulate All-Stars on any given night, there shouldn't be a drastic gap between the top two teams in the East and the Knicks' title odds.</p><p>At some point, it's worth betting on a team as talented as the Knicks when everyone's penciled in Celtics-Cavs for the Eastern Conference finals.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/30969099/related

Are oddsmakers and bettors overlooking the Knicks?

The NBA play-in tournament begins in less than a week, but the Western Conference's playoff pictu...

<p>The NBA play-in tournament begins in less than a week, but the Western Conference's playoff picture won't be decided until Sunday's regular-season finale. </p><p>The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/28" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/28">Thunder</a> are in first place with a 13-game lead over the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/22" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/22">Rockets</a>, who have earned the 2-seed by winning 15 of their last 17 contests. Houston has the league's second-best net rating over the last 15 games.</p><p>The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/18" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/18">Lakers</a> only have a one-game lead over the 4-seed after Tuesday night's loss to Oklahoma City. With the standings changing nightly in the Wild Wild West, it's almost impossible to predict how the rest of the conference shakes out, but the odds tell us who might avoid the play-in.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><h3>Western Conference playoff picture and odds</h3><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Seed</th>
<th>Team</th>
<th>Record</th>
<th>Odds to make/miss playoffs</th>
<th>Odds to be in West play-in</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>3.</td>
<td>Lakers</td>
<td>48-31</td>
<td>-20000/+3000</td>
<td>+600</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4.</td>
<td>Clippers</td>
<td>47-32</td>
<td>-1600/+700</td>
<td>+100</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5.</td>
<td>Nuggets</td>
<td>47-32</td>
<td>-5000/+1300</td>
<td>-105</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6.</td>
<td>Warriors</td>
<td>47-32</td>
<td>-15000/+2000</td>
<td>+450</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7.</td>
<td>Grizzlies</td>
<td>47-32</td>
<td>-900/+475</td>
<td>-160</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>8.</td>
<td>Timberwolves</td>
<td>46-33</td>
<td>-2500/+900</td>
<td>+115</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9.</td>
<td>Kings</td>
<td>39-40</td>
<td>+300/-475</td>
<td>N/A</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10.</td>
<td>Mavericks</td>
<td>38-41</td>
<td>+600/-1400</td>
<td>N/A</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p><em>Odds via theScore Bet/ESPN Bet</em></p><p>One game separates the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/26" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/26">Nuggets</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/17" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/17">Clippers</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/16" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/16">Warriors</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/27" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/27">Timberwolves</a>, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/23" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/23">Grizzlies</a>, who could all end up as high as the 4-seed or as low as the 8-seed and potentially miss out on the playoffs with a poor play-in tournament performance.</p><p>If there's a five-way tie for the 4-seed, the standings are:</p><ul>
<li>4. Timberwolves</li>
<li>5. Clippers</li>
<li>6. Warriors</li>
<li>7. Nuggets</li>
<li>8. Grizzlies</li>
</ul><p>The Timberwolves, who won 14 of their last 18 outings, had the best chance of attaining the 4-seed before their collapse against the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/10" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/10">Bucks</a> on Tuesday. However, the Wolves own the tiebreaker and have the easiest remaining schedule - two of their final three matchups are against the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/2" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/2">Nets</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/30" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/30">Jazz</a>, explaining their 46% implied probability to be in the play-in. </p><p>The Warriors<span style="margin:0px; padding:0px; text-align:left"> have the<strong> </strong>shortest odds of making the playoffs among the five teams and</span> have the second-easiest schedule. Golden State is 22-5 with <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/2809" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/2809">Jimmy Butler</a> in the lineup and is tied for the league's best defense since the All-Star break.</p><p>The Clippers have won 15 of their last 18 games, carried by <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/4200" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/4200">Kawhi Leonard</a>'s return to All-Star form. L.A. also has the third-best net rating in the West this season. </p><p>Los Angeles has even odds of competing in the play-in because of remaining games against the Rockets, Warriors, and Kings. However, the Clippers have discovered a nearly unstoppable combination in Leonard, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/351" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/351">James Harden</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/12144" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/12144">Norman Powell</a>, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/52287" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/52287">Ivica Zubac</a>. Those four outscore opponents by 15.6 points per 100 possessions when they share the court.</p><p>That leaves the Nuggets and the Grizzlies with the best chance of appearing in the play-in. The Nuggets fired their coach and general manager on Tuesday, signaling they don't feel equipped to win this season. Denver is 11-13 since the All-Star break, has a bottom-third defense in that span, and has lost its last four contests. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/44995" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/44995">Jamal Murray</a> has also missed the past five outings with a hamstring injury. </p><p>While the 4-seed is still within reach, the Nuggets have a better chance of ending up in the play-in than earning home-court advantage in the first round. They have a 25% chance of finishing as the 7-seed and a 15% chance at the fourth, fifth, or eighth seed.</p><p>After Malone's dismissal, the Nuggets' championship odds moved from +2200 to +3000. They're now +1100 to win the West behind the Thunder (-140), Lakers (+525), and Warriors (+625).</p><p>While the 7-seed isn't guaranteed a playoff spot, it might present the best path for Denver. The Nuggets would play the Rockets in the opening round, who have little playoff experience and a less stacked lineup, <em>and</em> they'd avoid the Thunder in the second round. Since the play-in tournament began, a 7-seed has never missed the playoffs. However, a<strong> </strong>play-in team has won a postseason series in only two out of 16 tries.</p><p>The Grizzlies have the highest probability of taking a trip to the play-in. Like the Nuggets, the Grizzlies fired their coach late in the season, hoping it would give them a boost heading into the playoffs. It's had the opposite effect. Although Memphis won three straight, the team is trending in the wrong direction after a 7-8 stretch in its last 15 games.</p><p>The <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/20" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/20">Kings</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/21" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/21">Mavericks</a>, whose seasons were headlined by trading away franchise cornerstones, are locked into the No. 9 and 10 seeds and must win two games in the play-in tournament to earn the 8-seed. No 10-seed has ever made the playoffs, but three 9-seeds have snuck in since the event began in 2021.</p><p>Sacramento and Dallas will likely miss out on the playoffs, but one of those teams will play either the Clippers, Nuggets, Wolves, Warriors, or Grizzlies in a win-and-in game next Friday - and one of the latter five clubs would be favored to win the matchup.</p><p>Buckle up, NBA fans. The late-season drama is far from over.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/30911359/related

Western Conference playoff odds: Are Nuggets slipping after Malone firing?

Houston led Florida for nearly 39 minutes of Monday's national championship. But two days after b...

<p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/471" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/471">Houston</a> led <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/380" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/380">Florida</a> for nearly 39 minutes of Monday's national championship. But two days after being the beneficiary of a last-minute collapse, Houston fell victim to one. The Cougars didn't score a single point in the final two minutes, allowing the Gators to storm back and win their third national title in program history.</p><p>While the celebration roars on in Gainesville, it's never too early to start thinking about next season. Over 1,500 players are already in the transfer portal, and eliminated teams began assembling next year's roster weeks ago.</p><p>It's harder than ever to project which teams will contend for titles with the lack of roster continuity due to NIL and the portal, especially as fewer schools rely on freshmen. (None played in the national championship.) However, the top programs usually reload and contend annually. So, who's favored to cut down the nets in Indianapolis one year from now?</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><h3>2026 national title odds</h3><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Team</th>
<th>Odds</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Duke</td>
<td>+1000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Houston</td>
<td>+1200</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>UConn</td>
<td>+1400</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Purdue</td>
<td>+1500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Louisville</td>
<td>+1600</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>BYU</td>
<td>+1700</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Arkansas</td>
<td>+1800</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Kansas</td>
<td>+1800</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Auburn</td>
<td>+2000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Kentucky</td>
<td>+2000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alabama</td>
<td>+2000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Florida</td>
<td>+2500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>St. John's</td>
<td>+2500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Michigan</td>
<td>+2500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Texas Tech</td>
<td>+2500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>UCLA</td>
<td>+2500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tennessee</td>
<td>+2800</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Gonzaga</td>
<td>+3000</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/329" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/329">Duke</a> is still recovering from a devastating Final Four collapse, but it's expected to return to the mountaintop next season.</p><p>Like most years in Durham, North Carolina, there will be excitement entering the winter. Duke has the top-ranked recruiting class, including highly touted twin prospects Cayden and Cameron Boozer. But as we saw this year, inexperience from even the most talented freshmen can lead to late-game horrors.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/103281" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/103281">Tyrese Proctor</a>'s and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/162167" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/162167">Isaiah Evans</a>' futures are question marks, but the Blue Devils will never struggle to recruit transfers with a war chest of funds.</p><p>As Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson expressed following his team's loss, this group was as equipped to cut down the nets as any he's coached. Next year's roster will look different and rely on more freshmen, as the Cougars bring in three top-20 prospects. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/103134" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/103134">Emanuel Sharp</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/110355" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/110355">Joseph Tugler</a> may return as well. Houston is the best program in the country to not have a national title. With the second-best odds, it will have another opportunity next year to accomplish the ultimate feat.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/280" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/280">UConn</a>'s failed bid at a three-peat will motivate head coach Dan Hurley to return to glory. After an up-and-down season, the Huskies are bringing back solid players and acquired <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/413" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/413">Georgia</a>'s <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/110707" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/110707">Silas Demary Jr.</a> in the portal. Their ceiling depends on whether <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/102538" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/102538">Alex Karaban</a> returns or moves on to the NBA.</p><p>Nearly all of <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/872" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/872">Purdue</a>'s impactful players are expected to return following this year's Sweet 16 trip. The Boilermakers will be back in the title picture with unusual roster continuity and the addition of key transfers.</p><p>While Florida fans probably aren't worried about next year's outlook just yet, the Gators are down on the oddsboard. They'll likely lose their four best players: <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/96362" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/96362">Walter Clayton Jr.</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/85616" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/85616">Alijah Martin</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/96288" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/96288">Will Richard</a>, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/110701" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/110701">Alex Condon</a>. Although a repeat may seem reasonable after UConn's back-to-back titles in 2023 and 2024, the Huskies made it look easier than it is. There's a reason there have only been two repeat champions this century (Florida was the other in 2006 and 2007).</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/589" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/589">Louisville</a>'s and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/659" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/659">Michigan</a>'s new coaches built foundations for success in Year 1. Both schools have made splashes in the portal, as has<a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/1011" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/1011"> St. John's</a>. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/155" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/155">BYU</a> landed the top-ranked freshman, AJ Dybantsa. With a balanced roster around Dybantsa, the Cougars will earn their fair share of preseason attention and could be in the championship mix.</p><p>As is the case every year, some acclaimed teams will fall flat and under-the-radar groups will soar up the rankings and oddsboard. However, it's usually a good bet that the blue bloods will be in the picture.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/30896282/related

2026 CBB national championship odds: Familiar faces back in the picture

You're not the only one still attempting to decipher how Duke isn't playing for a national title ...

<p>You're not the only one still attempting to decipher how <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/329" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/329">Duke</a> isn't playing for a national title after a complete collapse in the final minute. But now Monday night's championship matchup is set between <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/471" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/471">Houston</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/380" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/380">Florida</a>, two of the nation's top teams all season. Let's dive into our preview and pick.</p><h3>No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 Florida (-1.5, O/U 140.5)</h3><p>Florida's resiliency has trumped its head coach's and various players' inexperience. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/86" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/86">Auburn</a> punched the Gators in the mouth, including heading into halftime with an eight-point lead. But Florida doesn't get knocked down. Thanks to Todd Golden's sharp adjustments, the squad completed a comeback win for the second straight game and dominated Auburn in the second half.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/96362" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/96362">Walter Clayton Jr.</a>'s shotmaking somehow becomes more impressive every contest. He became the first player since Larry Bird to score at least 30 points in the Elite Eight and Final Four. He's the best player in Monday's title game and the favorite (-110) to win Most Outstanding Player.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>Duke led Houston by 14 with roughly eight minutes remaining in the Final Four showdown. The Cougars' offense struggled to keep pace with the Blue Devils, a problem many forecasted heading into the contest. However, it didn't matter with a defense as tough and physical as Houston's. The Cougars held Duke to 67 points, the Blue Devils' lowest point total since Jan. 25. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/162169" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/162169">Cooper Flagg </a>had a typical Flagg outing - 27 points, seven assists, four rebounds - but only one other Duke player reached double figures.</p><p>It was a matchup between the nation's best defense and the top offense. Ultimately, defense prevailed. And that's why Florida could be in trouble.</p><p>For all of Florida's offensive brilliance - it has the country's second-best offense - it's yet to play a defense as physically daunting as Houston's. The Cougars have the perimeter defenders to slow down Clayton and the Gators' other guards.</p><p>Florida took advantage of the rebounding battle against Auburn, an area it has dominated in most games. The Gators have the fourth-best offensive rebounding rate in the nation, but it's hard to gain extra possessions against Houston, which has a top-20 total rebounding rate and frequently grabs offensive boards. The Cougars should win if they neutralize Florida's rebounding strength and limit second-chance points.</p><p>Oddsmakers have loved the Gators for weeks, and they've largely been right. But Houston should be favored as the better overall team in this matchup (unfortunately, I also said that about Auburn).</p><p>The Cougars often experience offensive lulls, but their defense has carried them to 31 wins in their last 32 games. I'd expect Houston's defense to prevent Florida from getting into its actions and limit the Gators' guards. The Cougars will likely trap and double Clayton (his under 22.5 points on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet in jurisdictions that allow player props is worth a look), forcing Florida's bigs and other contributors to make plays. Houston flies around in its rotations, so the Gators, particularly <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/85616" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/85616">Alijah Martin</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/96288" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/96288">Will Richard</a>, must catch fire from three to win. While it shot 38% against Auburn, Florida is just a 35% 3-point shooting team.</p><p>The Cougars' defense and toughness have brought them this far. It'll lead them to one more win and a celebration in San Antonio.</p><p><strong>Pick: Houston +1.5</strong></p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

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National championship betting preview: Florida slightly favored over Houston

NCAA Tournament purists complaining about the lack of Cinderellas should retract their statements...

<p>NCAA Tournament purists complaining about the lack of Cinderellas should retract their statements after four No. 1 seeds earned Final Four trips for the first time since 2008. The event is at its best when the top teams make it to the final stage, creating thrilling matchups when the stakes are the highest. This could be one of the most memorable Final Fours and championships as the four best teams descend on San Antonio.</p><p>We already wrote about potential <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3256606" href="https://thescore.com/news/3256606">Most Outstanding Player</a> winners. Now, let's get to Saturday evening's two matchups with our picks for who will play in Monday's national championship.</p><h3>No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 1 Florida (-2.5, O/U 159.5)</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/87250" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/87250">Johni Broome</a>'s health is the storyline entering the Final Four matchup between these SEC foes. The All-American injured his non-shooting elbow in <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/86" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/86">Auburn</a>'s Elite Eight victory over Michigan State but returned later in the game. While something to monitor, it's unlikely to impact his or the Tigers' performance.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>Auburn coasted past its competition en route to the Final Four. Before losing three of its final four games entering the NCAA Tournament, Auburn was the most dominant team all season. It's fair to wonder if the right team is favored.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/380" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/380">Florida</a> defeated Auburn 90-81 in February, which likely factored into this spread. However, that was an off night for Auburn's guards. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/96188" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/96188">Denver Jones</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/85291" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/85291">Chad Baker-Mazara</a>, who average more than 10 points per game, combined for eight against the Gators. Auburn shot worse than usual from three, while Florida shot better from distance. The Tigers are a 37.8% 3-point shooting squad, but they connected on only 31% of their looks. The Gators are a 35% 3-point shooting team and made 39% of their threes in the initial matchup. The 3-point shooting variance should revert closer to the norm in this matchup.</p><p>Florida is the fourth-best offensive rebounding team in the country, but Auburn has the personnel to limit Florida's big-man depth. The Tigers outrebounded the Gators on the offensive glass in their first contest.</p><p>It's difficult to find more even opponents in the Final Four. Gators point guard <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/96362" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/96362">Walter Clayton Jr.</a> is the best clutch shotmaker in this game, which could be the difference. But Auburn has more guard depth, a better defense, and the more experienced coach. Let's roll with the Tigers.</p><p><strong>Pick: Auburn +2.5</strong></p><h3>No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 Duke (-5.5, O/U 136.5)</h3><p>How can a team that's lost one game since Dec. 1 - a one-point overtime loss to eventual Elite Eight finalist <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/1079" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/1079">Texas Tech</a> - be a 5.5-point underdog to anyone? Well, it's possible when its opponent is the nation's most talented squad and has the second-best net rating in college basketball history.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/471" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/471">Houston</a> has lost four games all season, all by five points or less. Three of its four losses came in overtime. But <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/329" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/329">Duke</a> has destroyed its competition. It went 19-1 in the ACC and has won its four tournament games by an average margin of 23.5. Its most impressive win was a 20-point Elite Eight victory over Alabama, the nation's sixth-best team.</p><p>Duke has the No. 1 offense in the country while Houston has the No. 1 defense. It's a clash between two conflicting styles. While Duke's offense touts three projected top-10 picks, its defense stood out against Alabama. The Blue Devils held the fourth-best offense in the country to 65 points and 35% shooting from the field with a connected, physical defense that prevented dribble penetration and made quick rotations.</p><p>Kelvin Sampson's defensive schemes and Houston's physicality present a nightmare for opposing offenses, but it hasn't seen an offense with as much firepower as Duke's. Everyone in the Blue Devils' rotation fits into their roles perfectly, and they move the ball exceptionally well while relying on NBA-ready talents <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/162169" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/162169">Cooper Flagg</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/162168" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/162168">Kon Knueppel</a> to carry the scoring load. It's hard to imagine any defense in the country could shut down Duke.</p><p>Offensively, Houston relies on a balanced scoring attack among <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/84316" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/84316">L.J. Cryer</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/103134" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/103134">Emanuel Sharp</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/103081" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/103081">Milos Uzan</a>, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/76186" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/76186">J'Wan Roberts</a>. However, there have been times when Houston's offense hits a lull and depends on its defense to earn wins. That happened in the Sweet 16 against Purdue when the Cougars scored only 62 points and won on a last-second shot against a porous Boilermakers' defense. Houston will have a tough time scoring and competing against Duke if the Blue Devils showcase the same defensive intensity they did against Alabama.</p><p>Houston has the coaching and roster to pull off the upset, but Duke has a better chance at beating the Cougars by double digits than Houston winning outright.</p><p><strong>Pick: Duke -5.5</strong></p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

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Final Four picks: Can Auburn pull off the upset? 

Four No. 1 seeds represented in the Final Four should create thrilling games, and it means many o...

<p>Four No. 1 seeds represented in the Final Four should create thrilling games, and it means many of the nation's most talented players will compete in San Antonio. That creates a complicated Most Outstanding Player race, the award given to the best player in the Final Four and championship, typically from the national title-winning team.</p><p>Let's take a look at some of this year's contenders. </p><h3>Most Outstanding Player odds</h3><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Player</th>
<th>Odds</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Cooper Flagg</td>
<td>+105</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Walter Clayton Jr.</td>
<td>+375</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Johni Broome</td>
<td>+800</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L.J. Cryer</td>
<td>+1000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Milos Uzan</td>
<td>+1500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tahaad Pettiford</td>
<td>+2000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Kon Knueppel</td>
<td>+2200</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alijah Martin</td>
<td>+2500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Emanuel Sharp</td>
<td>+2500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>J'Wan Roberts</td>
<td>+3000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Will Richard</td>
<td>+4000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tyrese Proctor</td>
<td>+6000</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p>Unsurprisingly, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/162169" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/162169">Cooper Flagg</a> is the favorite. He's not only the best player on the four remaining teams, but <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/329" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/329">Duke</a> has the best odds to cut down the nets as a +105 favorite on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>While Flagg isn't the only projected lottery pick on Duke's roster, he's the best and most impactful player. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/162168" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/162168">Kon Knueppel</a> is the second-leading scorer and will likely be a top-10 pick in the draft.</p><p>Knueppel certainly can - and has - outplayed Flagg in recent games, but there's almost no scenario where Duke wins and Flagg doesn't earn the honor. Flagg averages 18.9 points, 7.5 boards, and more than four assists per game on 37% 3-point shooting. However, betting on Flagg at such a short price is risky when his team must win two games for consideration. Hakeem Olajuwon was the last losing player to win Most Outstanding Player in 1983.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/380" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/380">Florida</a> has the second-best odds to win the title at +285, leading to <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/96362" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/96362">Walter Clayton Jr</a>., the Gators' best player, having the second-best odds (+375) to capture Most Outstanding Player. Clayton's late-game heroics against <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/1079" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/1079">Texas Tech</a>, when he drilled two threes to cap off a 9-0 run with less than four minutes remaining, propelled the Gators to the Final Four.</p><p>Clayton has led Florida in scoring in three of its four tourney games while averaging 22.3 points in the Big Dance. Florida is a 2.5-point favorite over <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/86" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/86">Auburn</a> but would be an underdog against Duke in a potential championship showdown. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/96288" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/96288">Will Richard</a> (+4000), who led the Gators in scoring against <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/627" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/627">Maryland</a>, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/85616" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/85616">Alijah Martin</a> (+2500) are the other Florida guards with a chance.</p><p>The odds drop significantly after Flagg and Clayton because oddsmakers doubt <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/471" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/471">Houston</a> or Auburn will win the title.</p><p>There's value for bettors who disagree with the books. Auburn's <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/87250" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/87250">Johni Broome</a> finished the season as the National Player of the Year favorite.</p><p>Broome left Auburn's Elite Eight game against <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/660" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/660">Michigan State</a> with an elbow injury before returning later in the second half. He'll almost certainly play in the Final Four, and the injury to his non-shooting elbow shouldn't impact the All-American's performance.</p><p>Auburn is an underdog against Florida and would also be against Houston or Duke in the final, explaining Broome's long odds (+800). <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/162002" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/162002">Tahaad Pettiford</a> (+2000) is the next-closest Tiger on the oddsboard. While Auburn has great guard depth, Broome is its engine as a physical forward who can score at three levels. He'd be my long-shot pick.</p><p>Finally, Houston has two guards with top-five odds. It's a 5.5-point underdog against Duke, but it's good enough to leave San Antonio on top of the college basketball world. The Cougars rely on a balanced scoring attack from their top guys. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/84316" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/84316">L.J. Cryer</a> (+1000) is their leading scorer, averaging 15.4 points. They have four players averaging between 10 and 16 points, including <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/103081" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/103081">Milos Uzan</a> (+1500) at 11.6 per game.</p><p>Although <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/103134" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/103134">Emanuel Sharp</a> (+2500) averages more points than Uzan, the latter is Houston's primary playmaker and leads the squad in assists. Cryer has averaged 16.8 points and four assists in the tournament, while Uzan has averaged 12.8 points and five assists.</p><p>Betting on Flagg is essentially betting on the Blue Devils to win the tournament, but the wiser wager is Duke (+100) at nearly equal odds in case of the slight chance Knueppel (+2200) explodes and Flagg struggles in the final two games. </p><p>I believe Auburn has a better chance of beating Florida than oddsmakers believe. If the Tigers win, Broome's odds will be cut in half. So, Broome is my pick to earn Most Outstanding Player.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

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Most Outstanding Player odds: Is it Flagg's award to lose?

For the first time since 2008, the Final Four features all No. 1 seeds. But they're more than jus...

<p>For the first time since 2008, the Final Four features all No. 1 seeds. But they're more than just the best squads this year: Based on net rating, four of <a href="https://kenpom.com/">KenPom</a>'s 10 best teams in college basketball history will descend on San Antonio to fight for the championship.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/329" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/329">Duke</a> has the second-best net rating ever behind the program's 1998-99 squad, which lost to <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/280" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/280">UConn</a> in the national championship. The Blue Devils, KenPom's No. 1 team by a decent margin, entered the tournament as the favorite and still hold that title as the championship game looms. </p><h3>National title odds</h3><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Team</th>
<th>Odds</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Duke</td>
<td>+105</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Florida</td>
<td>+275</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Houston</td>
<td>+405</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Auburn</td>
<td>+500</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p>Duke annihilated its competition en route to the Final Four, proving that its 19-1 ACC record wasn't a result of playing in a weak conference. The Blue Devils won their four tourney games by an average margin of 23.5, including a 20-point win over <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/41" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/41">Alabama</a>, the sixth-best team in the country.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>While it relies on freshmen, Duke's roster is the most talented in the nation: Three Blue Devils are projected to be top 10 picks in the upcoming NBA draft.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/471" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/471">Houston</a> is a 4.5-point underdog against Duke in a clash between the Cougars' No. 1 defense and the Blue Devils' No. 1 offense. The total is set at 136.5.</p><p>The Cougars had a difficult path to San Antonio, becoming the first 1-seed since <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/756" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/756">North Carolina</a> in 2017 to defeat the 16,8,4, and 2-seed on the way to the Final Four. And Houston didn't play a typical 8-seed; <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/421" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/421">Gonzaga</a> is a top-10 team.</p><p>Duke has won 31 of its past 32 games while Houston has won 30 of its past 31. This is a heavyweight showdown for the ages.</p><p>In the other matchup, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/380" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/380">Florida</a> is a 2.5-point favorite over <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/86" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/86">Auburn</a>, explaining why the former has the second-best odds to win the title. Auburn is the No. 1 overall seed and was the SEC regular-season champion, but Florida won the SEC conference tournament. The Gators also beat the Tigers 90-81 in early February.</p><p>Florida has the most impressive resume over the last month, but the Gators were tested in the Elite Eight against <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/1079" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/1079">Texas Tech</a>. They trailed by nine with less than four minutes remaining, but <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/96362" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/96362">Walter Clayton Jr.</a>'s heroics lifted Florida to the Final Four.</p><p>Both groups have guard depth and versatile bigs, which should create a thrilling Final Four contest.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

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Final Four odds: Duke remains the favorite after dominant regional run

The field that began at 68 is down to eight.   Eight of KenPom's top nine teams in the country ar...

<p>The field that began at 68 is down to eight. </p><p>Eight of <a href="https://kenpom.com/index.php">KenPom</a>'s top nine teams in the country are represented in the Elite Eight, composed of four 1-seeds, three 2-seeds, and one 3-seed. It's hard to find a chalkier tournament than this one. That's a great development because this weekend's Elite Eight matchups should be some of the season's most thrilling college basketball games with a trip to San Antonio on the line.</p><h3>Saturday's games</h3><h3>No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Florida (-6.5, O/U 156.5)</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/380" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/380">Florida</a> coach Todd Golden hadn't won an NCAA Tournament game entering this season. However, that inexperience hasn't been an issue. The Gators were tested against <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/280" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/280">UConn</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/627" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/627">Maryland</a> but advanced to the Elite Eight with one of the most balanced rosters in the country.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>The Gators' strength is creating second-chance opportunities by crashing the offensive glass. They have the fourth-best offensive rebounding rate in the country. That could present an issue for <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/1079" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/1079">Texas Tech</a>, which is outside the top 120 in opponent offensive rebounding percentage. </p><p>Texas Tech pulled off a magical comeback against <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/71" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/71">Arkansas</a>. However, it took overtime, which could lead to tired legs against Florida with only one day of rest. The Red Raiders desperately need <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/85854" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/85854">Chance McMillian</a> to return - he's questionable after missing the past three games with an upper-body injury. Even without <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/110701" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/110701">Alex Condon</a> for most of the game, Florida survived Maryland with frontcourt depth and prolific scoring guards. Texas Tech doesn't have the talent to keep up with Florida, which will advance to its first Final Four since 2014.</p><p><strong>Pick: Florida -6.5</strong></p><h3>No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 1 Duke (-6.5, O/U 174.5)</h3><p>This could be the game of the tournament between high-powered offenses with NBA talent littered all over the floor. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/41" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/41">Alabama</a> is the more experienced group, having made the Final Four last season. While <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/329" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/329">Duke</a> relies primarily on freshmen, its first-year stars' on-court maturity resembles veterans.</p><p>The Blue Devils have the most talent in the country. They've won 30 of their past 31 games and scored 100 points in the Sweet 16 against <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/69" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/69">Arizona</a>. However, they also allowed 93 points. Duke might struggle against Alabama's fast-paced offense that chucks threes at a historic rate.</p><p>Alabama broke the tournament record for threes made when it drilled 25 3-pointers on 49% shooting from downtown in a Sweet 16 rout over <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/155" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/155">BYU</a>. Alabama typically shoots 35% from deep. It'll walk to the national championship if it continues to shoot that well from three. Duke is usually solid at defending the three, but it's susceptible to defensive lapses. If Alabama stays hot, it'll advance to its second consecutive Final Four.</p><p>Plus, the Crimson Tide have improved defensively throughout the season. Over the past two months, they've had a top-30 defense in the country. Don't expect them to shut down Duke in a likely high-scoring affair, as indicated by the over-under total, but they'll keep it close with timely stops.</p><p><strong>Pick: Alabama +6.5</strong></p><h3>Sunday's games</h3><h3>No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 1 Houston (-3.5, O/U 124.5)</h3><p>This is a remarkably low total, which tells this game's story. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/471" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/471">Houston</a> has the nation's best defense while <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/1063" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/1063">Tennessee</a> has the third-best. Expect a physical, defensive battle between two coaches who construct creative defensive game plans to stymie opposing offenses.</p><p>Houston has won 29 of its past 30 games. It escaped <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/872" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/872">Purdue</a> in the Sweet 16 thanks to a brilliant baseline inbounds play in the final seconds. Houston struggled offensively, scoring only 62 points against a porous defense. The Cougars shot 36% from 2-point range. Their offense must be more efficient to survive Tennessee.</p><p>Tennessee shot 26% from three but controlled <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/531" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/531">Kentucky</a> from the tip until the final buzzer. The Vols' defense often leads to offense, and they move the ball well with various contributors. While Houston has been dominant, it hasn't played a team as good as Tennessee since it began Big 12 competition. This should be an incredible game between teams with similar strengths. I'd lean Houston to cover, but this is a complete toss-up.</p><p><strong>Lean: Houston -3.5</strong></p><h3>No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 1 Auburn (-5.5, O/U 148.5)</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/660" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/660">Michigan State</a> struggled for most of its Sweet 16 showdown against <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/680" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/680">Ole Miss</a>, but pulled away in the final minutes of a tightly contested game. The Spartans didn't play well, but they have many contributors who can fill the stat sheet. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/163573" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/163573">Jase Richardson</a> scored 20 points, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/112071" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/112071">Coen Carr</a> had 15, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/95525" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/95525">Jaden Akins </a>poured in 13.</p><p>The Spartans rebound effectively and have an assertive defense. Their strength is limiting threes, allowing opponents to shoot 27% from deep, the nation's best mark. The problem is <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/86" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/86">Auburn</a> doesn't rely on its 3-point shooting. The Tigers run their offense through forward <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/87250" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/87250">Johni Broome</a> and have various downhill driving guards who can create shots for themselves and their teammates.</p><p>While Michigan State's defense is exceptional, Auburn has matchup advantages all over the floor. This is another coin-flip game, which happens when all the best teams in the country advance to the Elite Eight. Auburn has the talent edge, but 5.5 is too many points with a trip to the Final Four on the line.</p><p><strong>Lean: Michigan State +5.5</strong></p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

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March Madness Elite Eight picks: Will favorites keep advancing? 

We had a rough showing with our Thursday Sweet 16 picks, but that won't dissuade us from firing o...

<p>We had a rough showing with our Thursday Sweet 16 picks, but that won't dissuade us from firing on Friday's card. Four teams will advance to the Elite Eight and have a chance to play for a Final Four. Let's dive into Friday's Sweet 16 matchups.</p><h3>No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Michigan State (-3.5, O/U 144.5)</h3><p>This classic Tom Izzo group defends at a high level, rebounds effectively, and has a balanced scoring attack. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/95525" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/95525">Jaden Akins</a> is <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/660" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/660">Michigan State</a>'s leading scorer, but it doesn't have a single player averaging more than 13 points per game, while seven guys average at least seven points per game. </p><p>It's hard to prepare for that depth when different guys contribute to the scoring column and defend at a high level.<a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/680" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/680"> Ole Miss</a> guard <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/95549" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/95549">Sean Pedulla</a> can go nuclear as a scorer, and the Rebels also have a physical defense. Chris Beard is one of the sport's elite coaches and has done a terrific job bringing Ole Miss to relevance. </p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>But Michigan State is a connected, unselfish group led by a Hall of Fame coach. Its run won't end in the Sweet 16.</p><p><strong>Lean: Michigan State -3.5</strong></p><h3>No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 2 Tennessee (-4.5, O/U 144.5)</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/531" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/531">Kentucky</a> beat <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/1063" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/1063">Tennessee</a> twice in the regular season, but now the Volunteers are 4.5-point favorites. It's not hard to beat a team three times in one season, like many claim, but it's challenging to go 24-for-48 from three in two games against one of the best defenses in the country.</p><p>Tennessee holds opponents to 28.3% shooting from three, the nation's third-best mark. It's uncharacteristic for Tennessee to allow as many 3-point makes as it did in its two games against Kentucky. The Wildcats have offensive firepower all over the floor and tough shotmakers, but that shooting production is difficult to replicate.</p><p>Kentucky has a top-10 offense but is outside the top 40 on defense. Tennessee has the country's third-best defense, and its offense, led by <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/87491" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/87491">Chaz Lanier</a>, is capable of high-scoring outputs.</p><p><strong>Pick: Tennessee -4.5</strong></p><h3>No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 1 Auburn (-8.5, O/U 153.5)</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/104554" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/104554">Danny Wolf</a> ended <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/86" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/86">Auburn</a>'s season in the first round of last year's tournament when he played for <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/1254" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/1254">Yale</a>. As <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/659" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/659">Michigan</a>'s star, he can deliver Auburn the same fate while Bruce Pearl seeks revenge.</p><p>Wolf and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/88860" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/88860">Vlad Goldin </a>are the perfect frontcourt duo as complementary bigs with different skill sets. However, Auburn's frontcourt with <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/87250" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/87250">Johni Broome</a> can counteract Michigan's size. Auburn's real advantage is its guard play, which completely overpowers Michigan's. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/96188" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/96188">Denver Jones</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/85291" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/85291">Chad Baker-Mazara</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/95495" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/95495">Miles Kelly</a>, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/162002" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/162002">Tahaad Pettiford</a> average more than 10 points per game. The Wolverines struggle with turnovers. The Tigers' guards should constantly pressure Michigan's ball-handlers, leading to points off turnovers.</p><p>Auburn has the matchup advantage, especially if it consistently forces turnovers, but this spread is too large against a talented and resilient Michigan group.</p><p><strong>Lean: Michigan +8.5</strong></p><h3>No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 1 Houston (-8.5, O/U 131.5)</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/872" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/872">Purdue</a> was lucky to make the Sweet 16 with an easy path against <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/459" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/459">High Point</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/644" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/644">McNeese State</a>, but that doesn't mean its defensive woes are solved. The Boilermakers rank outside the top 100 in defensive rating since Feb. 1. They have leaky perimeter resistance and an undersized interior presence, problems that will be exacerbated against one of the nation's best teams.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/471" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/471">Houston</a> has the nation's 11th-best offense and No. 1 defense. It won 28 of its past 29 games and appears immune to upsets. Purdue's offense can typically keep up with most opponents, but it hasn't faced a defense as daunting as Houston's. This could get ugly in the second half.</p><p><strong>Pick: Houston -8.5</strong></p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

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March Madness bets: Friday's Sweet 16 picks

The Sweet 16 should produce a flurry of thrilling contests between title contenders, with some of...

<p>The Sweet 16 should produce a flurry of thrilling contests between title contenders, with some of the country's best teams primed for action. Let's get to our breakdowns for Thursday's action.</p><h3>No. 6 BYU vs. No. 2 Alabama (-5.5, O/U 175.5) </h3><p>These are two of the best offenses in the nation. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/41" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/41">Alabama</a> has the fastest tempo in the country, and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/155" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/155">BYU</a> has the best offensive rating in the country since Feb. 12, according to <a href="https://www.barttorvik.com/?sort=AdjOE&amp;begin=20250212&amp;end=20250501&amp;conlimit=All&amp;year=2025&amp;top=0&amp;venue=All&amp;type=All&amp;mingames=0&amp;quad=5&amp;rpi=#">Bart Torvik</a>. </p><p>The 175.5 total is one of the highest in NCAA Tournament history and is receiving many bets, with more bettors wagering on the under.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>Alabama relies heavily on drilling 3-pointers, while BYU has a more balanced offensive approach. The Crimson Tide are susceptible to an upset if they go cold from three, but the Cougars also have to knock down shots if Alabama is nailing its 3-point looks. Both offenses will score early, but this won't be as high-scoring a contest as many expect.</p><p><strong>Lean: BYU +5.5 and under 175.5</strong></p><h3>No. 4 Maryland vs. No. 1 Florida (-6.5, O/U 157.5)</h3><p>This game will come down to rebounding. Florida has the fourth-best offensive rebounding rate in the country and depth in its frontcourt. The Terps must gang rebound to limit the Gators' second-chance opportunities. Maryland will likely switch less defensively to avoid mismatches where guards must box out bigs.</p><p>The Terps boast the highest-scoring starting lineup in the country, and coming off three days of rest, shouldn't play their bench much. Florida has the depth advantage, but Maryland's starters are rarely fatigued late in games. The Gators have an edge in their backcourt with <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/96362" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/96362">Walter Clayton Jr.</a>, the best scorer on the floor, but Maryland's big men, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/121822" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/121822">Derik Queen</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/95513" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/95513">Julian Reese</a>, can combat Florida's bigs.</p><p>Maryland coach Kevin Willard is rumored to be leaving Maryland for Villanova. That could cause a distraction, which turns this from a Maryland pick to a lean.</p><p><strong>Lean: Maryland +6.5</strong></p><h3>No. 4 Arizona vs. No.1 Duke (-9.5, O/U 154.5)</h3><p>Duke has won 29 of its last 30 games and two tournament contests by an average margin of 33.5. The Blue Devils have three freshmen expected to be selected in the top 10 in the NBA draft, but their on-court maturity resembles seniors more than freshmen. They also have veteran support from guys like <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/103281" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/103281">Tyrese Proctor</a>, who had 25 points in the Round of 32 against <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/109" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/109">Baylor</a>.</p><p>Duke is the most talented team in the country, and has played like it for months. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/69" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/69">Arizona</a> had a relatively easy path, beating No. 13 <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/40" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/40">Akron</a> and escaping No. 5 <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/823" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/823">Oregon</a>. The Wildcats have been inconsistent for much of the season, and Duke even defeated Arizona by 14 during nonconference play in November.</p><p>Arizona's offense follows <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/87457" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/87457">Caleb Love</a>'s lead, but he struggles with efficiency as a 39% field-goal shooter. Duke has the athletes to disrupt Love's rhythm, thus disrupting Arizona's offense.</p><p><strong>Pick: Duke -9.5</strong></p><h3>No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 3 Texas Tech (-5.5, O/U 147.5)</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/1079" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/1079">Texas Tech</a> can beat you inside with <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/110546" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/110546">JT Toppin</a> and from beyond the arc with its prolific shooting from an array of guards, including <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/85854" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/85854">Chance McMillian</a>, who should return Thursday after missing the last few contests.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/71" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/71">Arkansas</a> is also getting healthier with <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/161991" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/161991">Boogie Fland</a> returning and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/103059" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/103059">Adou Thiero</a> back in the lineup. But the Razorbacks remain an unreliable shooting team, connecting on 33% of their looks from deep, while the Red Raiders have the nation's seventh-best offense since Feb. 1. Texas Tech shoots a ton of threes and rarely turns the ball over.</p><p>Arkansas faced more challenging battles to get to the Sweet 16 with wins over <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/524" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/524">Kansas</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/1011" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/1011">St. John's</a>, while Texas Tech played mid-major opponents <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/764" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/764">UNC Wilmington</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/325" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/325">Drake</a> to earn a spot. However, Arkansas' impressive run will end against a talented offensive group.</p><p><strong>Pick: Texas Tech -5.5</strong></p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

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March Madness bets: Thursday's Sweet 16 showdowns

When Draymond Green is involved in an NBA award race, he campaigns like a presidential candidate ...

<p>When <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/2982" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/2982">Draymond Green</a> is involved in an NBA award race, he campaigns like a presidential candidate two weeks out from the election.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/110276" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/110276">Victor Wembanyama</a> was the overwhelming favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year at -2000 until a blood clot ended his season. He won't play enough games to be eligible for the honor, and new candidates are now making their case and trying to win over voters in a limited period of time.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/96054" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/96054">Evan Mobley</a> immediately emerged as the new favorite, with <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/62285" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/62285">Jaren Jackson Jr.</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/102785" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/102785">Dyson Daniels</a>, and<a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/70382" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/70382"> Lu Dort</a> trailing close behind. When Wembanyama was ruled out Feb. 20, Green wasn't even on the oddsboard. He was first included six days later as a mega long shot at +10000.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>But since then, he's steadily risen in a tight race that won't be close to a unanimous decision. His climb has coincided with the resurgence of the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/16" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/16">Warriors</a>, who boast the league's best defense since the All-Star break.</p><p>The most significant leap came March 18 after the Warriors defeated the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/10" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/10">Bucks</a>. Green shut down MVP candidate <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/players/30611" href="https://thescore.com/nba/players/30611">Giannis Antetokounmpo</a>. The Greek Freak had his worst shooting game in two seasons and shot 0-for-7 on field goals contested by Green, who emphatically stated his case for Defensive Player of the Year following the win.</p><p>"I look around the league and don't see many players impacting the game on the defensive end the way I do. I don't see many players completely throwing off an entire team's offense the way I do," Green said. "Especially with Wemby going down, seemed like he had it won. And now it is right there."</p><p>Over the next 24 hours, Green's odds moved from +1000 to +450. In the last week, Green surpassed Mobley as the favorite at -120 on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet. Mobley is +110, Daniels is +1600, and Dort, who I <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3240368" href="https://thescore.com/news/3240368">previously advocated</a> for, is +2000. Jackson is +4000.</p><p>During Green's soliloquy, he claimed stats "don't always tell the story." But they do to some extent - just not the typical counting stats like blocks and steals that fans associate with great defense.</p><p>The four-time champion isn't in the top 20 in blocks or the top 10 in steals, but he does rank in the top 20 in <a href="https://espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts">defensive net points</a>, and Golden State allows fewer points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor than off. He's undoubtedly the most impactful defender on the NBA's best defense over the last month-and-a-half.</p><p>Mobley, meanwhile, is the best defender for the <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///nba/teams/7" href="https://thescore.com/nba/teams/7">Cavaliers</a>, who own the eighth-best defense (the Warriors have the seventh-best defense since the start of the season). His metrics - defensive rating, defensive net points, and on/off splits - are better than Green's, as are his counting stats, including blocks.</p><p>Of course, Defensive Player of the Year is, as Green suggested, also about perception to some degree. </p><p>Green's impassioned plea noted that he covers for everyone defensively, and he has a valid point. He's capable of switching onto guards and bigs, has the strength and instincts to guard post players, and the quick feet and strong hands to chase perimeter-oriented players. He's also as cerebral as any defender in the NBA, constantly in the right help spots and breaking up actions he anticipates.</p><p>There is, however, a potential problem for Green. The 65-game requirement that disqualified Wembanyama could also prevent Green from winning the award. The 2017 Defensive Player of the Year has played 57 games, and there are only 10 games remaining. He can't miss more than two games the rest of the season. He also must play at least 20 minutes in those games. Any game in which a player plays under 15 minutes doesn't count, and each player gets two games in which they can play between 15 and 20 minutes, which Green has already used.</p><p>But there's good reason to believe he'll hit the 65-game requirement. The Warriors won't rest Green because they're in a tight race to avoid the play-in, and he clearly wants a second award on his mantel.</p><p>And as he continues to get closer to the mark, expect him to construct his case as much off the court as he does on the floor.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

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Draymond surpasses Mobley as Defensive Player of the Year favorite

For the first time in NCAA Tournament history, there isn't a single mid-major squad in the Sweet ...

<p>For the first time in NCAA Tournament history, there isn't a single mid-major squad in the Sweet 16. March Madness has delivered fewer upsets than previous tournaments, but some early-round duds should lead to thrilling games between the country's best teams in later rounds.</p><p>Favorites are conquering the tournament, and history says that's likely to continue: Thirteen of the past 17 national champions have been 1-seeds. With all four top seeds still alive, the Final Four will likely be flooded with No. 1 teams, and the oddsboard agrees the eventual champion will almost certainly be a top seed. However, there's not much value there - so which long shot is worth wagering on?</p><h3>National title/Final Four odds</h3><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Team</th>
<th>National title odds</th>
<th>Final Four odds</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Duke</td>
<td>+225</td>
<td>-185</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Florida</td>
<td>+310</td>
<td>-140</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Houston</td>
<td>+500</td>
<td>-140</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Auburn</td>
<td>+550</td>
<td>-135</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alabama</td>
<td>+1600</td>
<td>+350</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tennessee</td>
<td>+1600</td>
<td>+230</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Michigan State</td>
<td>+2000</td>
<td>+260</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Texas Tech</td>
<td>+2000</td>
<td>+275</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Maryland</td>
<td>+3300</td>
<td>+450</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Arizona</td>
<td>+4000</td>
<td>+750</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Kentucky</td>
<td>+5000</td>
<td>+500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ole Miss</td>
<td>+6000</td>
<td>+600</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Purdue</td>
<td>+6000</td>
<td>+700</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>BYU</td>
<td>+6600</td>
<td>+875</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Arkansas</td>
<td>+7500</td>
<td>+750</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Michigan</td>
<td>+7500</td>
<td>+600</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p><em>Odds via theScore Bet/ESPN Bet</em></p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/627" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/627">Maryland</a>'s national prominence has grown since <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/121822" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/121822">Derik Queen</a> drove left and banked in a buzzer-beating fadeaway off the glass, sending the Terrapins to their first Sweet 16 since 2016. But this run shouldn't surprise college basketball fans.</p><p>Maryland finished second in the Big Ten and has won 14 of its last 17 games. The Terps have the highest-scoring starting lineup in the country - nicknamed the "Crab Five" - with exceptional guard play, quality shooters, and a balanced frontcourt. Maryland ranks in the top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency on <a href="http://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjDE">KenPom</a>.</p><p>The Terps can win a low-scoring defensive contest or compete in a shootout. That's what makes Maryland so dangerous this time of year. Its last four losses came on game-winning field goals, and it looked like a fifth straight heartbreaking defeat was on the horizon before Queen's heroics knocked off <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/264" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/264">Colorado State</a>.</p><p>After entering the first two games as a hefty favorite, Maryland is a 6.5-point underdog in its Sweet 16 showdown against No. 1 seed <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/380" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/380">Florida</a>. Why are the Terps the best long-shot pick? It starts with their path.</p><p>The West Region is the only one that's knocked a top-two seed out of the tournament, so Maryland wouldn't face St. John's in a potential Elite Eight matchup. Despite the Johnnies' offensive woes, many predicted the nation's top defense could carry them to a Final Four. No. 10 seed <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/71" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/71">Arkansas</a> and No. 3 seed <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/1079" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/1079">Texas Tech</a> are formidable opponents, but every other region still has a 2-seed alive.</p><p>That said, Maryland must upset Florida before it can consider its Elite Eight opponent. Of all the top seeds, however, that's Maryland's best matchup. Houston and Duke have two combined losses in their last 59 games, and Auburn is the No. 1 overall seed for good reason.</p><p>Florida has terrific rebounding and passing bigs and a lethal backcourt led by All-American <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/96362" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/96362">Walter Clayton Jr.</a>, who shined with 23 points in the Round of 32 win over <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/280" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/280">UConn</a>. The team showed impressive resiliency by pulling away from the two-time defending champions in the final minutes, especially considering head coach Todd Golden hadn't won a tournament game entering the Big Dance. The Gators have the nation's second-best offense, but UConn's defense forced them into tough shots and limited their second-chance opportunities. The Huskies' problem was that they couldn't make threes, connecting on just 27% of their looks.</p><p>Maryland is a better shooting team than UConn, so that shouldn't be an issue for the Terps. They also boast the nation's sixth-best defense. Despite Florida's talent and depth, Maryland should be able to string together stops. The Terps' weakness, however, is defensive rebounding, which could pose a problem against Florida's fourth-best offensive rebounding rate. If Florida continuously creates second-chance opportunities, Maryland doesn't have a prayer.</p><p>But the Terps can keep up offensively in a game that will likely go down to the wire. Other than the remaining No. 1 and 2 seeds, Maryland has the second-best net rating among teams still dancing. If it escapes Florida, there's a chance it could be favored in an Elite Eight showdown.</p><p>Maryland is +450 to make the Final Four. Other potential long shots like <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/69" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/69">Arizona</a>, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/531" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/531">Kentucky</a>, or <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/680" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/680">Ole Miss </a>have worse odds to get there because of their more challenging paths. Considering Maryland's starting five, favorable roadmap, and momentum, the Terps are worth investing in to disrupt the chalk.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

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Favorites are conquering March Madness, but which long shot can win?

The appeal of March Madness is the unpredictability, upsets, and possibility of an unknown school...

<p>The appeal of March Madness is the unpredictability, upsets, and possibility of an unknown school embarking on a magical run. That hasn't been the case this year. There isn't a single mid-major school in this year's Sweet 16, which instead features teams from only four major conferences (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC) for the first time in NCAA Tournament history.</p><p>Entering the postseason, at least one top-four seed had lost in the opening round in 15 of the past 16 tournaments. All 16 top-four seeds advanced to the Round of 32 this year. St. John's was the only 2-seed to lose in the second round when No. 10 Arkansas ended the Johnnies' season. Arkansas is the only team lower than a 6-seed in the Sweet 16, meaning there's a good chance the Final Four doesn't feature a 7-seed or higher for just the second time in 12 years.</p><p>Bettors hoping for underdog upsets have been left disappointed. Had a bettor made a wager to win $100 on every favorite's moneyline in the first two rounds, you would have profited roughly $930. If you had used the same strategy last year, you would have lost roughly $250 (even though 40 favorites covered the spread last season, tied for the most in a tournament since at least 1985, according to <a href="https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/44294942/betting-men-ncaa-tournament-key-trends-march-madness-wagering">ESPN</a>).</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>St. John's, a 6.5-point favorite over Arkansas, was the largest moneyline upset from the weekend. Favorites went 37-11 straight up in the first two rounds and 27-21 against the spread. </p><p>NIL has led to college basketball's rich becoming richer and shrunk the sport's high-level talent distribution. The best players have no incentive to attend, or stay at, a mid-major if high-major programs can pay them substantially more. The results have led to a different kind of tournament, where upsets and Cinderella runs are even more improbable and the top teams create thrilling matchups later on.</p><p>While upsets are popular during March Madness, bettors still tend to side with favorites. This created a successful weekend for bettors, particularly on Sunday, and a disappointing one for sportsbooks.</p><p>"The first three days were somewhat a split decision, with some results good for the public while some were in our favor," said Adrian Horton, head of North American trading at theScore Bet/ESPN Bet. "Sunday was a different story with favorites holding serve across the board. With a lot of favorites covering and almost all winning outright, it was a good day for bettors, especially those with moneyline parlays."</p><p>Although the national title favorites shortened their odds as the field was cut from 64 to 16 over the last four days, the schools atop the oddsboard remain unchanged. </p><h3>National title odds </h3><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Team</th>
<th>Odds</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Duke</td>
<td>+225</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Florida</td>
<td>+310</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Houston</td>
<td>+500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Auburn</td>
<td>+550</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alabama</td>
<td>+1600</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tennessee</td>
<td>+1600</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Michigan State</td>
<td>+2000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Texas Tech</td>
<td>+2000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Maryland</td>
<td>+3300</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Arizona</td>
<td>+4000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Kentucky</td>
<td>+5000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ole Miss</td>
<td>+6000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Purdue</td>
<td>+6000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>BYU</td>
<td>+6600</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Arkansas</td>
<td>+7500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Michigan</td>
<td>+7500</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/329" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/329">Duke</a> has won 29 of its last 30 contests and dominated its first two tournament games, winning by an average margin of 33.5. The Blue Devils remain the favorites to cut down the nets and are the most considerable favorite to advance to the Elite Eight - 8.5 points over <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/69" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/69">Arizona</a> on Thursday.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/380" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/380">Florida</a> has the second-best odds after a resilient Round of 32 win over two-time defending champion <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/280" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/280">UConn</a>. However, the Gators have the longest odds to advance to the Elite Eight among 1-seeds as 6.5-point favorites over <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/627" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/627">Maryland</a>. The four 1-seeds have the best odds to win the title, with a drastic drop-off from 1-seed <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/86" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/86">Auburn</a> (+550) to 2-seed <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/41" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/41">Alabama</a> (+1600). Auburn and Houston are huge favorites over Michigan and Purdue, respectively.</p><p>Thirteen of the past 17 champions were 1-seeds, so oddsmakers are rightfully assuming one of those four teams will celebrate in San Antonio.</p><p>Sportsbooks are rooting against Duke, which is a widespread choice among bettors. The Blue Devils have garnered 27% of the money wagered and 22% of the bets to win the title. Florida is the second-most popular team with 21% of the money and 18% of the bets.</p><p>As the tournament landscape changes and favorites reign supreme early, everyone might have to recalibrate how to approach the first few rounds. But the one thing that shouldn't change: One of the top seeds will eventually cut down the nets in April.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

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Where are the upsets? Favorites dominate March Madness' opening rounds

It's a weekend loaded with hoops, and one day remains before a pause in the action. This year's t...

<p>It's a weekend loaded with hoops, and one day remains before a pause in the action. This year's tournament has featured fewer upsets than usual, but high quality basketball is still on display.</p><p>With eight games Sunday to close the Round of 32, here are three picks we're rolling with.</p><h3>No. 7 Saint Mary's +5.5 vs. No. 2 Alabama </h3><p>This matchup features two contrasting styles. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/41" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/41">Alabama</a> plays with the fastest tempo among tournament teams and jacks up threes frequently, while <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/915" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/915">Saint Mary's</a> plays with the third-slowest pace and isn't a high-volume 3-point-shooting team. The Gaels score in the paint and dominate the offensive glass for second-chance opportunities. Alabama also has the highest-scoring offense in the tournament, while Saint Mary's allows the third-fewest points per game among tourney teams.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>Something has to give. Saint Mary's slow pace should limit the possessions, favoring a low-scoring matchup and potential upset. Alabama will try to speed the game up, but that's a difficult task given the Gaels' style.</p><p>The Crimson Tide struggled in their opening-round game against No. 15 <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/896" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/896">Robert Morris</a> before pulling away in the final minutes. If they come out stumbling against Saint Mary's, they'll go home earlier than expected.</p><h3>No. 4 Maryland -7.5 vs. No. 12 Colorado State </h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/627" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/627">Maryland</a> has a great path to the Sweet 16 for a No. 4 seed, including a Round of 32 showdown against <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/264" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/264">Colorado State</a>. </p><p>The Terps have the highest-scoring starting five in the country, and although the bench has been an issue, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/110723" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/110723">DeShawn Harris-Smith</a> and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/86119" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/86119">Jordan Geronimo</a> have been productive reserves. They also have a balanced scoring attack, a daunting frontcourt, dependable guards, and one of the best defenses in the country. Even if shots aren't falling, Maryland can grind out results by shutting down the opposing team's offense, as it did when it beat <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/427" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/427">Grand Canyon</a> by 32 in the opening round.</p><p>Maryland has been on the wrong end of some unlucky breaks in close contests, but this one shouldn't be close. The discrepancy between Maryland's starting lineup and Colorado State's is as large as the Atlantic Ocean.</p><h3>No. 6 Illinois -1.5 vs. No. 3 Kentucky</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/483" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/483">Illinois</a> is finally healthy and playing its best basketball of the season at the perfect time. The Fighting Illini won five of their last six games, including a comfortable win over <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/1252" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/1252">Xavier</a> in the Round of 64.</p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/531" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/531">Kentucky</a>'s offensive firepower is enough to carry it deep into the tourney, but the Wildcats' inconsistency has been an issue the last few months. Their problems are on the defensive end, where they surrender 77.9 points per game, the second most of any tournament team. Illinois, meanwhile, has averaged over 90 points per game in its last five wins. </p><p>The Fighting Illini will score easily against Kentucky and advance to the Sweet 16 as a lower-seeded favorite.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

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March Madness bets: Sunday's Round of 32 picks

College basketball fans and bettors have some time to breathe between the Round of 64 and the Rou...

<p>College basketball fans and bettors have some time to breathe between the Round of 64 and the Round of 32. The chaos slows for a moment before starting up again, so let's dive into our favorite plays for Saturday's Round of 32.</p><h3>No. 12 McNeese State +5.5 over No. 4 Purdue</h3><p>People were skeptical of <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/644" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/644">McNeese State</a>'s tournament chances after it was revealed that head coach Will Wade is expected to leave for <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/762" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/762">NC State</a>. But Wade's team showed up with infectious energy, racing out to a 31-13 halftime lead over <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/250" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/250">Clemson</a>.</p><p>McNeese State's Cinderella run can extend to the Sweet 16 with a favorable matchup over <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/872" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/872">Purdue</a>. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/459" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/459">High Point</a> didn't have the offensive firepower to take advantage of Purdue's leaky defense - which ranks outside the top 150 in defensive efficiency since Feb. 1 - in the opening round. But the Cowboys have the weapons to score with the Boilermakers. The former shot 50% from the free-throw line and 21% from three against Clemson and still scored 69 points. And McNeese State has the athletes to contain <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/102884" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/102884">Braden Smith</a> and Purdue's backcourt. I'll pick the Cowboys to keep it close and potentially pull off another upset.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><h3>No. 11 Drake +7.5 over No. 3 Texas Tech</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/325" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/325">Drake</a>'s game plan worked to perfection against <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/684" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/684">Missouri</a>. Drake plays with the slowest tempo in the country and grinds teams down defensively. The Bulldogs want to limit possessions, which usually helps underdogs pull off upsets. </p><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/1079" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/1079">Texas Tech</a> is a formidable opponent and will try to speed up play, but it let <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/764" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/764">UNC Wilmington</a> hang around in the opening contest and won't have an answer for Drake's <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/163707" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/163707">Bennett Stirtz</a>. Drake's fairytale run isn't ending in the Round of 32.</p><h3>No. 9 Creighton +9.5 over No. 1 Auburn</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/287" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/287">Creighton</a> has the defensive personnel to slow down <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/86" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/86">Auburn</a>'s attack. The Tigers have had solid shooting outings but like to get downhill and dominate inside, while the Bluejays play a drop coverage against pick-and-rolls, allowing big man<a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/85101" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/85101"> Ryan Kalkbrenner</a> to sit in the paint and protect the rim. Auburn must move Kalkbrenner away from the basket to secure a win. The Bluejays will pull off the upset if the Tigers try to win from three.</p><p>Creighton is as well coached as any team in the tournament and has experienced players in Kalkbrenner and <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/89116" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/89116">Steven Ashworth</a>, who complement each other offensively as a paint presence and an elite shooter. I have the Bluejays in my Final Four, so I'm definitely rolling with them catching 9.5 points.</p><h3>No. 8 Gonzaga +5.5 over No. 1 Houston</h3><p><a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/421" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/421">Gonzaga</a> annihilated <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/413" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/413">Georgia</a> in the Round of 64, and there's a case that the Bulldogs are criminally under-seeded. <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/teams/471" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/teams/471">Houston</a> has won 27 of its last 28 games and appears immune to upsets, but it drew a difficult Round of 32 matchup.</p><p>Houston starter <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///ncaab/players/76186" href="https://thescore.com/ncaab/players/76186">J'Wan Roberts</a> returned from an ankle injury in the opening game after missing the last two contests. He played 20 minutes in a blowout win, but Houston needs him at full strength to defeat Gonzaga. Although the Cougars have the second-best defense in the country, the Bulldogs' efficient offense averages the second-most points per game among tournament teams by dominating in the paint. Gonzaga frequently earns trips to the free-throw line and rarely turns the ball over, a formula that often leads to upsets. I don't believe the Bulldogs will win outright, but it should be a close game.</p><p><em>Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. </em><em>You can follow him on X <a href="https://twitter.com/soshtry">@soshtry</a> for more betting coverage.</em></p>

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March Madness bets: Drake among 4 underdogs to back on Saturday

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