UFC 310 predictions: Will Asakura win title in his debut?

theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the UFC 310 main-card bouts ahead of Saturday's event in Las Vegas.

Flyweight championship

Alexandre Pantoja (28-5)
vs.
Kai Asakura (21-4)

Japanese star Kai Asakura has a chance to do what no other man or woman has done in the 31-year history of the UFC: defeat an established champion and win a title in their debut.

Asakura, who signed with the UFC earlier this year after a lengthy stint in the Rizin Fighting Federation where he held the bantamweight championship twice, will make his first walk to the Octagon against flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja in the UFC 310 main event. It'll also be Asakura's first time competing on North American soil.

There's a reason no one has won a title in his first UFC fight, though, and Asakura will need to overcome +205 odds (according to theScore Bet) and a gutsy fighter in Pantoja to be the first.

Pantoja has settled into his championship role quite nicely since unseating Brandon Moreno a year-and-a-half ago, defending the belt against Brandon Royval and Steve Erceg before agreeing to welcome Asakura to the big stage. The American Top Team product doesn't get a ton of love from the MMA community, but he's turned into one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world.

Pantoja has elite-level wrestling and grappling, boasting four submissions in 12 UFC wins, and he has solid knockout power for the 125-pound division. Perhaps the Brazilian's best attributes are his chin, toughness, and heart: He can take a punch, and he'll outlast just about anyone.

Asakura is a much flashier fighter than Pantoja. He's a striking fan's delight, perhaps best known for his devastating knees. (In fact, the 31-year-old ended his past two fights with a knee to the body.) Asakura is very aggressive on the feet and has earned 13 knockouts in 21 pro wins.

Though Asakura's power gives him the ability to beat anyone in the flyweight division and makes him a live underdog, my hunch is Pantoja will come out victorious because of his well-rounded skill set. If Pantoja's smart, he'll try to take Asakura to the ground as much as possible and make it a gritty fight. And I think he'll be able to do that.

The pick: Pantoja, unanimous decision

Welterweight bout

Shavkat Rakhmonov (18-0)
vs.
Ian Machado Garry (15-0)

In a battle of undefeated fighters, Shavkat Rakhmonov will put his title shot on the line against Ian Machado Garry to determine the next opponent for welterweight champion Belal Muhammad.

What makes this fight so intriguing - and ultimately the people's main event - is the many different ways it could play out.

While Rakhmonov's biggest strength in this matchup likely comes on the ground and Garry's likely comes on the feet, it wouldn't be fair to outright call this a grappler versus striker fight. It's not nearly that straightforward. Rakhmonov has shown a lot of skill in the stand-up department throughout his six UFC bouts, and though Garry has only one submission victory to his name, the Irishman relied on his grappling to get past Michael "Venom" Page last time out.

In other words, don't be too surprised at any outcome.

That said, I've long considered Rakhmonov the future of the welterweight division, and I don't think Garry is the man to take his "0." Garry might prove to be Rakhmonov's toughest test to date, but I think Rakhmonov's sensational grappling and all-around MMA game will be too much for him to handle. Rakhmonov will pull away from Garry in the second half of the fight and keep his 100% finish rate intact.

The pick: Rakhmonov, fourth-round submission

Heavyweight bout

Ciryl Gane (12-2)
vs.
Alexander Volkov (38-10)

Three years after their first fight, Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov meet again with a title shot potentially on the line.

Gane cruised past Volkov in their June 2021 main event en route to becoming the interim heavyweight champion and eventually challenging Francis Ngannou for the title. The Frenchman has had mixed success since the win over Volkov, going 3-2, while Volkov has re-emerged as a top contender by winning five of his past six. That said, I think history repeats itself at UFC 310.

As good as Volkov has looked in his past few Octagon appearances, and as much as he'll try to tell you it's a different matchup than back in 2021, I don't see the rematch playing out all that differently. It might be more competitive than before, but I still think Gane will have the edge on the feet and outwork Volkov for the win.

The pick: Gane, unanimous decision

Other main-card predictions: Bryce Mitchell def. Kron Gracie by decision; Dooho Choi def. Nate Landwehr by TKO