4 drivers to watch at Richmond Raceway

NASCAR goes short-track racing for the first time in the 2023 regular season this weekend as the Cup Series heads to the three-quarter mile oval of Richmond Raceway.

We'll see the new short-track package in action for the second time on an oval after aerodynamic changes to the Next Gen car debuted at Phoenix Raceway earlier in March.

Those rule adjustments saw a significant drop in downforce and made the cars harder to drive, but ultimately didn't result in much more passing. Richmond shapes up to be similar in nature, but with a full race of data to pull from with this updated package, we could be in store for an unexpected race.

Here are four drivers to watch this weekend at Richmond Raceway.

Kevin Harvick

Kevin Harvick put the Cup Series field on notice three weeks ago at Phoenix Raceway.

In a race where it was difficult to pass, Harvick was able to methodically make his way up the top 10 throughout the afternoon before being shot out of a cannon on the final long green flag run. He was able to track down and pass Kyle Larson for the lead, only to be foiled by a late race caution.

Even though he didn't go to victory lane, Harvick's speed at Phoenix with the new short-track package bodes incredibly well for success this weekend in Virginia.

Harvick has been excellent at Richmond in recent years. He has eight top-five finishes in 13 races here since 2016, including four pole positions. Last year, the No. 4 Ford finished runner-up in the spring race and won the summer race.

The shorter ovals were a strength of Stewart-Haas Racing in 2022 and it appears that has continued into 2023. In addition to Harvick nearly winning at Phoenix earlier in March, Chase Briscoe also finished top 10 in that race. That's Stewart-Haas' only top-10 finish so far this season for a driver other than Harvick.

All signs point towards Harvick being one of the top drivers to beat on Sunday.

William Byron

William Byron has been lights out in 2023.

The 25-year-old captured back-to-back wins at Las Vegas and Phoenix this month and was Tyler Reddick's top competition over the weekend at Circuit of the Americas.

Byron's results at Richmond Raceway aren't anything spectacular. He has one top-five and two top-10 finishes in nine races at the venue. He's led laps in just one outing as well. So what makes him a contender to watch this weekend?

The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has been on an upward trajectory lately in Virginia. In his last four races at Richmond, Byron has registered both of his top-10 runs and an 11th-place finish. Most notably, he was leading the spring race last year with less than 10 laps remaining until he was passed by Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick, who were on a differing tire strategy.

But what makes Byron most intriguing heading into this weekend is his success at Phoenix with the new short-track package.

Byron had the fastest lap of the race and the second-best median lap time behind Harvick at Phoenix Raceway. His pace dropped off slightly during the final green flag run, which he overcame with an excellent restart in overtime to capture the win.

Byron may not have the eye-catching wins or average finish that others in the field have at Richmond, but make no mistake: The speed the No. 24 team has shown this season will surely put them in contention yet again this Sunday.

Christopher Bell

Richmond Raceway has been Toyota's playground. Since 2009, the manufacturer has a whopping 16 wins in 27 races at the venue. Whether it's Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, or Martin Truex Jr., among others, it's been pure domination for well over a decade for Joe Gibbs Racing and company.

The next Toyota driver to go to victory lane at Richmond could very well be Christopher Bell.

Bell has been incredible at the venue since joining Joe Gibbs Racing. In the four races at Richmond where Bell has been with JGR, he has three top-five runs and a worst finish of sixth.

If the 2022 Richmond summer race was 401 laps instead of 400, he likely would've been able to get past Harvick for the win.

Bell quietly had the fourth-best median lap time at Phoenix - leading the Toyota stable - and had worked his way into third place prior to Harrison Burton's late spin. He ended up finishing sixth, which was still good for the 28-year-old's career-best finish at Phoenix.

Should the No. 20 team bring that level of speed to Virginia, Bell's going to be immensely difficult to beat.

Kyle Larson

Kyle Larson played second fiddle to teammate William Byron at Las Vegas and Phoenix. After a disappointing run at Circuit of the Americas, the 30-year-old will be looking to right the ship this weekend at Richmond.

It's easy to forget considering how the final quarter of the race played out, but Larson was the man to beat at Phoenix for most of the afternoon. He won the second stage, led a race-high 201 laps, and had the best average running position at 1.4.

Larson's pace fell off in the final stage, but he was also in a position to win the race on the penultimate restart. There's a clear scenario where we're talking about Larson as the two-time winner early in 2023, not Byron.

Even if the No. 5 Chevrolet's dip in performance late in the Phoenix race is a slight concern, Richmond shapes up to be a track position race as well. Larson's qualifying speed bodes well for him to be able to start up front and stay up front this weekend.

Larson has a win at Richmond - which came in 2017 with Chip Ganassi Racing - but he's yet to dominate a race at the venue. He only has three top-five finishes in 16 races and just 92 total laps led.

Despite fairly average statistics by Larson's standards, his speed at Phoenix makes the No. 5 Chevrolet a legitimate contender to keep an eye on this Sunday in Virginia.

Statistics from Auto Racing Analytics, FRCS, Racing Reference.