NBA play-in picks: How will injuries impact who earns 8-seed?
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Two teams from each conference will battle for the final playoff spot Friday.
Injuries will play a major factor in both games, taking some of the star power out of the play-in tournament's final day. Pelicans star Zion Williamson is out against the Kings, and the Heat's Jimmy Butler is out against the Bulls.
Let's get to our best bet from each game.
Kings @ Pelicans (+1.5, O/U 210)
With Williamson out, many presume this will be an easy win for the Kings. However, oddsmakers don't see it that way.
Sacramento's inconsistent performances led it to the 9-seed. Although it showed promise against the Warriors, that doesn't mean it'll replicate it against the Pelicans' elite defense.
Williamson is a huge loss, but Brandon Ingram's health is a lingering question too. He's played the last two games but is seemingly on a minutes restriction. The Pelicans' offense will be fine if he can play a normal minutes load. New Orleans' offensive rating is the same whether Williamson is on the court or off, an encouraging stat in a win-or-go-home game against Sacramento's poor defense.
The Kings are dealing with injuries to two of their top six scorers - Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter. Keegan Murray and Keon Ellis stepped up against the Warriors, but the Pelicans' defense is a different beast.
Sacramento is the rightful favorite, but the Pelicans could surprise people and sneak into the postseason. Instead of playing a side, let's target New Orleans' deflated team total. The Pelicans have reached at least 106 points in their last nine games and 14 of their last 15.
Best bet: Pelicans team total: Over 105.5 points (-110)
Bulls @ Heat (-1.5, O/U 205.5)
Butler's MCL injury is concerning for the Heat. Miami's offense had to run through Tyler Herro, whose inefficiency and turnovers killed its chances against the Sixers.
The Heat defend tenaciously and will game plan to shut down the Bulls' stars, including Coby White, who went off for 42 points against the Hawks' embarrassing defense in the first play-in game.
The Bulls are an elite clutch team that knows how to win close games, but I'm not taking a side. There's a Miami player to target who'll benefit from Butler's absence: second-year player Nikola Jovic.
The Heat are high on Jovic's potential. He averaged 7.7 points in under 20 minutes per game. His minutes and offensive role will inevitably increase without Butler. Jovic averaged 8.4 points in 13 contests without Butler.
Jovic has scored at least eight points in nine of the last 12 games in which he's played at least 20 minutes. Without Butler, he averaged 22.7 minutes per game.
Best bet: Nikola Jovic over 7.5 points (-112)
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.