NBA Cup betting: Which hot teams can win the tournament?

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

The increased intensity of NBA Cup games, their unique aesthetics, and a December showcase in Las Vegas accomplished exactly what the league intended: attracting attention and creating more excitement about the regular season among both players and fans last year.

Granted, it helped that LeBron James and the Lakers - the most marketable NBA player of the last generation and the team with the largest fan base - won the inaugural NBA Cup (formerly known as the In-Season Tournament).

In the grand scheme of the season, the tournament, which returns Tuesday, was meaningless. The 7-seed Lakers were knocked out of the first round of the playoffs but hung an NBA Cup banner at the league's direction.

Select games over the next month count toward tournament seeding before the knockout rounds begin in December. Let's compare some teams' NBA Cup odds to their NBA Finals odds.

Cup odds vs. championship odds

The best teams and eventual champions rarely hit their stride this early in the season. Organizations with legitimate championship aspirations won't go all out to secure an NBA Cup victory if it risks compromising the ultimate goal. Given those factors, top teams and preseason favorites seem unlikely to win the tournament.

Even without Kristaps Porzingis, the Celtics are the league's best team. Thus, Boston has the best odds to win both the Finals and the NBA Cup. Although the Celtics are focused on becoming the first back-to-back champions since the Warriors in 2018, they rarely lose games, so they should contend in the regular-season tournament even if it's not their priority. Almost 20% of the money wagered is on Boston to win the NBA Cup.

The Cavaliers were +2200 when the tournament market opened. Now, they're the league's hottest squad after becoming the seventh team in NBA history to start 12-0. That shortened the Cavs' odds substantially until they became the second favorites at +600. Cleveland has garnered as many bets to hoist the trophy in Vegas as Boston.

But there's still a massive discrepancy between Cleveland's NBA Cup odds and Finals odds. Any talented team can get hot in November and go on a run in a single-elimination tournament, but are the Cavs legitimate threats to win four straight seven-game series? There are questions about how their personnel would fare in the playoffs, including a two-big lineup of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. For now, it's all smiles in Cleveland.

The Knicks are high on the NBA Cup oddsboard, but bettors are wary of their defense and lack of bench. New York hasn't attracted as many tickets as the other favorites.

Although the Suns were one of the hottest teams to start the season and are second in the West, Kevin Durant's indefinite absence hurts Phoenix's chances. Still, the second-most money wagered to win the NBA Cup is on the Suns.

Injuries have plagued the Thunder and Grizzlies, and both groups have much better odds of winning the championship in June than the trophy in December. Chet Holmgren is out for at least two months with a pelvic fracture, while Ja Morant is week-to-week with a hip injury.

Could the Lakers take it for a second consecutive year? The odds give them a much better chance to win this tournament than the championship, but they've been poor defensively as JJ Redick tinkers with his lineups.

The Warriors fit the bill of a potential winner: They're off to a hot start (8-2) but aren't serious Finals contenders without a reliable secondary creator and scorer alongside Steph Curry. Their top-five offense and defense, along with the league's deepest bench, could carry them to NBA Cup triumph.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.