Eastern Conference finals betting preview: Knicks disrespect continues
Defeating the defending champion Celtics should turn Knicks skeptics into believers, but more of the former still exist than the latter.
The Pistons were the fourth-most-bet first-round team on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet. The Celtics were the most-bet team to win the second round despite being massive favorites over New York. Now, the Pacers have received 62% of bets to advance to the Finals as slight underdogs.
Fading the Knicks is a common - and losing - approach, but it's not just bettors. All 11 of ESPN's analysts predicted the Celtics would defeat the Knicks. When will anyone outside of New York believe in this team?
No. 3 Knicks (-155) vs. No. 4 Pacers (+130)
The Pacers and Knicks have renewed a decades-old rivalry with consecutive postseason meetings. Indiana beat the injury-riddled Knicks in a Game 7 at Madison Square Garden last season, making this a revenge series for New York.
The Knicks' identity has completely flipped during this playoff run. New York's offense carried this team during the regular season as its defense fell thanks to the addition of Karl-Anthony Towns and the prolonged absence of Mitchell Robinson. Then Robinson returned from a foot injury, and the Knicks began to ride their defense, toughness, offensive rebounding, and mental fortitude to their first conference finals appearance since 2000.
How can a team adopt the identity of a player playing less than 20 minutes per game? The Knicks' longest-tenured player has been that impactful. New York has a 101 defensive rating and is outscoring opponents by 8.5 points per 100 possessions with Robinson on the court. Teams outscore the Knicks by 4.5 points per 100 possessions when he's off the floor. He leads the team in net rating.
The Knicks rebound a remarkable 39.3% of their misses when Robinson is on the court. That could present a problem for the Pacers, who rank outside the top 10 in rebounding rate among playoff teams. New York has scored the second-most second-chance points this postseason. Indiana plays fast and scores on the break, but the team's transition opportunities could be restricted if it sends more guys to the glass to limit the Knicks' offensive rebounding.
The Pacers' defense has dramatically improved over the last few months. Their depth and on-ball defenders allow them to pick up full court, which they'll implement against the Knicks in an effort to wear down Jalen Brunson.
New York should let Mikal Bridges assume more ball-handling responsibilities instead of having Brunson labor it up the floor against pressure. This will help Brunson and the Knicks combat Indiana's war-of-attrition strategy. If any New York starter suffers an injury, the odds will flip in Indiana's favor.
Brunson and Tyrese Haliburton's playoff runs have been defined by clutch moments. They'll face off against each other after their WWE faceoff last summer and the questionable decision to gift Haliburton a spot on Team USA's Olympic squad over Brunson. However, the two will spend little time guarding each other as the weakest perimeter defenders on their respective squads.
Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, and Bennedict Mathurin will receive most of the reps on Brunson. While certain defenders have limited Brunson more than others, he's found ways to score against length and athleticism. He's totaled the most fourth-quarter and clutch points in the postseason by a massive margin.
Haliburton has been a force during these playoffs, snaking his way into the lane and collapsing the defense to earn quality shots for his teammates. But Haliburton faced the Bucks and Cavaliers, two teams with lackluster point-of-attack defenses incapable of stopping dribble-drive penetration. The Knicks present a bigger challenge with Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart. Bridges will likely start on Haliburton as Anunoby draws the Pascal Siakam assignment.
But Brunson and Haliburton won't determine this series' outcome. Role players will. Indiana has the best postseason 3-point percentage at 40.6%. Nembhard leads playoff players in 3-point percentage at 50%. Nesmith (48%), Myles Turner (45%), and Siakam (44%) have all been lights out from three.
Granted, the Knicks' defense will prevent the Pacers from generating consistently clean looks. Indiana has attempted 21.3 wide-open threes per game, the second most behind the Thunder this postseason. The Pacers are hitting 43% of those. Negative shooting regression based on poorer-quality shots is inevitable. Still, the Knicks must match their shooting prowess.
Bridges has struggled offensively despite some key fourth-quarter moments against the Celtics. He shot 43% from the field versus Boston and less than 30% from three in the first five games. He didn't attempt a single free throw. Anunoby shot 36% from the field against the Celtics and failed to reach double digits in half of the games. He's shooting 27% on corner threes on a league-leading 40 attempts during the playoffs, down from his 38% regular-season mark.
Towns was a menace on the boards, but he rarely attempted threes in the first five games of the Boston series. New York abandoned the pick-and-pop between Towns and Brunson after it was one of its most effective play types this season. However, Towns averaged 30 points in three games against the Pacers this campaign.
Bridges, Anunoby, and Towns must be consistent offensive threats for the Knicks to contend with the Pacers' offense. Brunson can put on a cape and carry New York to a win, but he needs help from his supporting cast. Sometimes basketball isn't rocket science. It's simply about who makes more shots.
These teams have similar statistical profiles. The Knicks have better individual talent, but the Pacers are far greater than the sum of their parts. Indiana's offense is an all-encompassing system that led the NBA in passes per game compared to New York's heliocentric approach.
The Knicks are imperfect, but they possess an unmatched collective will to win. They're out for revenge. Toughness, defensive intensity, offensive rebounding, and shooting regression are in the Knicks' favor. That, plus Brunson's clutch gene, will result in mayhem on Seventh Avenue as New York earns its first trip to the finals this century.
Pick: Knicks (-150), Knicks in 7 (+175)
Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.