NBA win totals 1st look: Knicks, Cavs lead weak East
The NBA's offseason activity has slowed down, allowing oddsmakers to post next season's NBA win totals on ESPN BET and theScore Bet.
Unsurprisingly, the Thunder are at the top with a 62.5 win total, the highest preseason total since the Warriors in 2018. Oklahoma City won 68 games last year, and its entire rotation returns. The Jazz have a wildly low win total of 18.5, one year removed from winning 17 games.
Let's take a look at every posted win total and identify five of our favorites with over three months remaining before next season tips off.
NBA win totals
| Team | win total |
|---|---|
| Thunder | 62.5 |
| Cavaliers | 55.5 |
| Rockets | 54.5 |
| Knicks | 53.5 |
| Nuggets | 53.5 |
| Magic | 51.5 |
| Timberwolves | 50.5 |
| Lakers | 48.5 |
| Warriors | 46.5 |
| Hawks | 46.5 |
| Clippers | 45.5 |
| Pistons | 45.5 |
| Bucks | 44.5 |
| Spurs | 43.5 |
| 76ers | 43.5 |
| Celtics | 43.5 |
| Grizzlies | 40.5 |
| Pacers | 39.5 |
| Mavericks | 39.5 |
| Heat | 37.5 |
| Kings | 36.5 |
| Raptors | 34.5 |
| Blazers | 33.5 |
| Bulls | 32.5 |
| Suns | 31.5 |
| Pelicans | 31.5 |
| Nets | 21.5 |
| Wizards | 20.5 |
| Jazz | 18.5 |
Cavaliers under 55.5 wins (-115)
"We could go 82-0 (next season), no one will care," Donovan Mitchell said after the Cavaliers' disappointing second-round exit in May, according to Sports Illustrated's Spencer German.
Cleveland's star admitted the hard truth: This group's regular-season success is irrelevant until it prevails in the postseason, even after winning 64 games.
The Cavaliers hope to take the next step by running it back with the same core in a weakened East as the Celtics and Pacers take a step back without their respective best players.
Cleveland should prioritize staying healthy for the playoffs, especially since injuries derailed its last two postseason runs. That could lead to more rest for some of its stars throughout the regular season and less emphasis on earning a top seed. Perhaps a worse regular season will lead to more playoff success.
Heat over 37.5 wins (-110)
The Heat won 37 games in 2024-25 while dealing with the distracting Jimmy Butler trade saga for months. Now that's in the past and Miami improved its roster by adding Norman Powell, who averaged nearly 22 points per game on over 41% 3-point shooting for the Clippers last season.
The Pacers and Celtics, two teams ahead of the Heat in the standings, got markedly worse. The Heat improved their rotation, got rid of unnecessary distractions, and still have the league's best coach. It's hard to envision them not winning more games than last year.
Celtics under 43.5 wins (-105)
The Celtics have eclipsed their win total in four straight seasons but haven't had a win projection this low since 2014. Boston is nearly stripped to the studs after championship pieces Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Luke Kornet all departed in free agency or via trade (with Al Horford also set to exit). The biggest loss is Jayson Tatum, who will likely miss all of next season with a torn Achilles.
While Jaylen Brown and Derrick White are a solid one-two punch, Boston doesn't have nearly enough pieces to emerge as a top seed in the East and should struggle to be better than .500.
Knicks over 53.5 wins (-105)
The Knicks needed to assemble a deeper bench this offseason. They did exactly that and hired a coach willing to play that bench.
New York won 51 games last year despite Jalen Brunson missing 17 games and Mitchell Robinson missing most of the season. The Knicks' core is returning. Meanwhile, Mike Brown is an innovative coach who should be able to help an offense that sputtered in the latter half of last season by utilizing Mikal Bridges more and unlocking the Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns two-man game in a way Tom Thibodeau struggled to do.
Brown prioritizes the regular season and will have a deeper roster, allowing him to rest some of his starters for longer stretches. New additions Jordan Clarkson and Guerschon Yabusele create a solid rotation to pair with an ultra-talented starting five. The Knicks will be solely judged on playoff success, but they'll have one of the NBA's best records in a weak conference.
Spurs over 43.5 wins (-120)
Victor Wembanyama took a noticeable jump from Year 1 to Year 2. If he continues on that trajectory, he'll emerge as one of the league's best players in his third season. The Spurs have surrounded him with the right mix of veterans and young pieces.
De'Aaron Fox will have a full season to develop chemistry with Wembanyama, and rookie Dylan Harper should contribute immediately. The Spurs improved their frontcourt depth by adding Luke Kornet and Kelly Olynyk to help San Antonio stay afloat in the non-Wembanyama minutes, which have been disastrous the last couple of seasons.
Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.
US: Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER; Hope is here. Call (800)-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org for 24/7 support (MA); Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
ON: Please play responsibly. 19+. ON only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call ConnexOntario 24/7 at 1-866-531-2600. Text us at 247247 or chat with us at www.connexontario.ca.