7 storylines to follow on final weekend of college hoops' regular season
The calendar has officially flipped to March, and the countdown to the bracket release is in full swing.
Selection Sunday is just nine days away, and the final weekend of the regular season offers teams one of their last chances to make an impression on the committee.
While many slots have been decided, there's still plenty to keep an eye on in this weekend's action.
Battle for No. 1 seed
Auburn is almost assured the No. 1 overall seed with its unmatched resume, while a lot needs to go wrong for Duke or Houston to be knocked off the 1-line. That pretty much leaves only a single No. 1 seed up for grabs. This weekend's results could make or break a team's case. Much of the discussion will revolve around the SEC trio of Florida, Alabama, and Tennessee.
Florida strengthened its argument earlier this week with a win at Alabama to go along with a pair of victories over the nation's No. 1 team. The Crimson Tide might seem out of the race after falling in that contest, but a win over No. 1 Auburn this weekend could flip things back in their favor. The Vols didn't help themselves by dropping Wednesday's game at Ole Miss but do get the easiest season finale with South Carolina on the slate.
Michigan State shouldn't be counted out either with an 12th Quad 1 win on the line Sunday against Michigan. The Spartans would need a deep run in the Big Ten Tournament and some chaos in the SEC tourney to leapfrog Tennessee, Florida, and Alabama.
North Carolina seeks redemption
North Carolina is finding its groove at the right time with six straight wins heading into a pivotal showdown Saturday against archrival Duke. The Tar Heels' run of form hasn't come against the toughest competition, but stacking victories is important at this time of the year. Hubert Davis' squad could dramatically bolster its NCAA Tournament chances with an upset of the Blue Devils. North Carolina is just 1-10 in Quad 1 matchups. Only one school has made the Big Dance with one Quad 1 victory since the NET rankings were introduced in 2018-19. The Tar Heels' recent offensive surge gives the school some hope after Duke dominated their previous tilt.
Cal's last stand
John Calipari's first season at Arkansas has seen many twists and turns. The Hogs started 0-5 in SEC play and lost five-star freshman Boogie Fland for the campaign at the end of that stretch. Arkansas then turned things around with a win in Calipari's return to Rupp Arena and a third top-15 victory of the season against Missouri. But the Razorbacks are now trending back toward the bubble after a brutal loss to SEC cellar-dweller South Carolina. A win over No. 25 Mississippi State in the regular-season finale is crucial to Arkansas' tourney hopes, even after Tuesday's triumph over fellow bubble school Vanderbilt.
Indiana's late push
Indiana looked dead in the water when it announced last month that head coach Mike Woodson will step down following the campaign. The Hoosiers had dropped six of their previous seven games and were just 14-9 on the season. They've since notched a pair of top-15 wins over Michigan State and Purdue to put themselves back in the hunt. Indiana's defense has stepped up lately, averaging 15 points off turnovers over the last seven games. Luke Goode and Anthony Leal have consistently created havoc, combining for 27 steals during that span.
The Hoosiers have no losses outside of Quad 1 matchups, and each win down the stretch builds a more compelling case to make a third Big Dance in four seasons. However, they made things significantly harder with a loss to Oregon during the week. That sets the stage for a massive bubble contest against Ohio State to close the regular season. The winner will go a long way toward punching a tournament ticket, while the loser might want to check out dates for the NIT.
Can Kansas figure it out?
Consider Kansas' last month to be the "our pets' heads are falling off" portion of the iconic Jim Carrey line from "Dumb and Dumber." Things have progressively gotten worse for the Jayhawks, as a dismal 4-6 record over their past 10 games has caused them to plummet down the Big 12 standings. Included in that run is a 34-point blowout loss to BYU - matching the worst defeat of Bill Self's tenure. Kansas still remains a safe bet to make March Madness but certainly doesn't look like a team that can last long in the tournament. One final chance remains to make a statement before postseason play with No. 24 Arizona coming to town Saturday. A victory over the Wildcats is needed to return some good vibes ahead of the Big 12 Tournament.
Battle for Michigan
On Feb. 21, Michigan went to the locker room at halftime leading rival Michigan State 38-34 and sitting atop the Big Ten. The Wolverines left the court with a crushing loss after the Spartans dominated the second half 41-24. That stink has lingered, as the team has been outscored 333-295 since that halftime. A three-point win over Nebraska and a buzzer-beating victory over Rutgers temporarily freshened things up in Ann Arbor, but a 20-point home loss to Illinois and another setback Wednesday to Maryland make it three defeats in the last five games. Now the Wolverines might have to watch Michigan State's home crowd celebrate the Big Ten regular-season title Sunday in East Lansing. A road victory would both ruin the party and give Michigan something positive to lean on heading to the Big Ten Tournament.
Baylor's chance to lock it up
Despite fielding one of the upcoming NBA draft's top talents in VJ Edgecombe, Baylor entered the month far from a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. The Bears had dropped three straight to sit 16-12 on the season and appeared destined to miss March Madness for the first time since 2020. Back-to-back wins have righted the ship, though Scott Drew's outfit made Tuesday's win over TCU way more taxing than it should have been. It sets up a massive finish Saturday versus No. 3 Houston. A win over the dominant Cougars would ensure Baylor fans can book travel for the third week of March. A loss would make next week's Big 12 Tournament slightly more nerve-racking in Waco.