CFB Week 9 betting preview: LSU, Texas A&M meet with perfect SEC records on line

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

The chaos continues across college football as the expanded College Football Playoff produces more intriguing and consequential matchups. Week 9 is no different with five ranked-on-ranked contests filling our Saturday. Let's touch on four of them here.

No. 12 Notre Dame vs. No. 24 Navy (+13, O/U 52.5)

The annual Notre Dame-Navy matchup has higher stakes than usual. The undefeated Midshipmen and the 5-1 Fighting Irish are both vying for a playoff spot. Navy would have a path to crashing the postseason party with an upset win, while Notre Dame would effectively ruin its chances with a loss.

Case for Notre Dame

• Notre Dame has a top-five scoring defense, limiting opponents to 11.9 points per game.
• The Fighting Irish have smoked their competition since their embarrassing upset loss to Northern Illinois. They won their last five games by an average of 30 points.
• Riley Leonard has played better as the season's progressed. He's completed over 69% of his passes the last three weeks and has five touchdowns to only one interception in that span.

Case for Navy

• Navy's reimagined offense has the Midshipmen off to a 6-0 start, already eclipsing their highest win total since 2019. While Navy still relies heavily on the run, its newfound creative rushing attack plows through opposing defensive lines.
• The Midshipmen have the nation's fourth-best rushing attack (274 yards per game) and the fourth-best scoring offense (44.8 points).
• All six of Navy's contests have gone over the total because of an unstoppable run game.

Trends/Insights

• Notre Dame has defeated Navy in each of the last six years, covering the spread in four.
• Notre Dame is 7-4-1 ATS in its last 12 games on a neutral site. (Saturday's game is at MetLife Stadium.)
• Navy is 5-1 ATS this season while Notre Dame is 4-2-1.
• Navy is 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog.
• The public and sharps are backing the Midshipmen: 72% of bets and 70% of the handle (money wagered) is on Navy to cover.

Best bet - Navy +13

Notre Dame must run the table to be considered for the College Football Playoff. It'll be favored in every game the rest of the season, with its toughest tests coming in the final two weeks against Army and USC. However, Navy poses a unique threat. The Fighting Irish have a solid run defense but won't have answers for Navy's imaginative run designs. The Midshipmen can keep the game close by pounding the ball and controlling the clock, which should lead to them staying within the number.

No. 20 Illinois @ No. 1 Oregon (-21.5, O/U 54.5)

Illinois is near the top of the Big Ten standings at 6-1 with wins over Michigan and Nebraska, and its only loss was to No. 3 Penn State. Now the Fighting Illini are massive road underdogs against the unstoppable and undefeated Oregon.

Case for Illinois

• While Illinois hasn't played superb competition, it held Penn State's offense in check. However, Oregon's offense is a larger threat.
• Illinois won't consistently score against Oregon's top-three Big Ten scoring defense, but it can stay competitive by generating enough stops and turnovers to limit the Ducks' offense. The Fighting Illini's defense has the Big Ten's third-most interceptions (eight).
• Luke Altmyer seldom turns the ball over. He has one interception and 15 touchdowns, which should help Illinois keep it close.

Case for Oregon

• The spread accurately represents the talent discrepancy between Oregon and Illinois. The Ducks have the Big Ten's third-best scoring offense (34 points per game) and passing offense (300 yards per game).
• Oregon has passed every test against excellent competition (defeated No. 4 Ohio State 32-31) and lesser competition (shut out Purdue 35-0).

Trends/Insights

• Illinois is 5-1-1 ATS and 4-0 ATS as an underdog.
• Oregon is 3-4 ATS and 0-3 as a home favorite.
• Oregon is a virtual lock to make the playoff, while Illinois remains a long shot (+900).

Best bet - Illinois +21.5

Illinois won't win the game but has the recipe to cover a three-touchdown spread. With a defense that only allows 18 points per game and a quarterback that doesn't turn the ball over, this Big Ten showdown might be more competitive than people anticipate.

No. 5 Texas @ No. 25 Vanderbilt (+18.5, 53.5)

Vanderbilt, which hasn't won six games in a season since 2018, is already 5-2. Its signature win was an upset victory over Alabama. Texas, still considered a title contender after losing to Georgia, is a tougher opponent than Alabama.

Case for Texas

• Texas undoubtedly dropped the ball in its biggest test last weekend, losing 30-15 to Georgia at home.
• However, the Longhorns are still as talented as any team in the country and should easily qualify for the playoff with a manageable remaining schedule.
• Texas has a top-three scoring offense (39 points per game) and the best scoring defense (9.7 points).
• A Texas group coming off a loss with a point to prove is dangerous, especially given its huge talent advantage.

Case for Vanderbilt

• Vanderbilt has a weapon at quarterback propelling its 5-2 start. Diego Pavia brilliantly manages games and has made timely plays in upset wins over Alabama and Kentucky. He's only thrown one pick.
• Texas benched Quinn Ewers for Arch Manning in the first half last week before returning to Ewers in the second half. Ewers will get the start, but Steve Sarkisian obviously has doubts, which could result in a short leash.

Trends/Insights

• Vanderbilt is 5-2 ATS and 2-0 ATS as a home underdog.
• It covered all four double-digit spreads as an underdog, including three outright wins.
• Texas is also 5-2 ATS. This is its second road contest. It covered its only other road game against Michigan.
• Vanderbilt is 7-16 ATS at home in the Clark Lea era.
• Public bettors and sharp bettors are split: Vanderbilt's spread is receiving 58% of the bets, but Texas' spread is attracting 79% of the handle.

Best bet - Texas -18.5

Unfortunately for Vanderbilt, Texas is angry from losing and is about to take it out on the Commodores. The talent gap is too wide and Vanderbilt's bottom-tier defense won't stop Texas' potent offense. There won't be another goal-post parade on Broadway this Saturday.

No. 8 LSU @ No. 14 Texas A&M (-2.5, O/U 53.5)

LSU and Texas A&M are the only two remaining SEC teams without a conference loss despite both losing in Week 1 to nonconference opponents. Both teams have daunting conference showdowns ahead, so the loser will likely be knocked out of the playoff race.

Case for LSU

• Since its season-opening loss to USC, LSU has won six straight. However, there have been some scares, including a controversial win over South Carolina and an overtime win over Ole Miss.
• Garrett Nussmeier leads LSU's explosive passing attack. He's atop the SEC in passing attempts by a sizable margin and has the most touchdown passes.
• The Tigers rely on their passing game significantly more than their rushing attack. They average the SEC's second-most passing yards per game (322).

Case for Texas A&M

• LSU's defense allows the third-most yards per game (358) and second-most passing yards (243).
• However, Texas A&M's offense is stylistically different from LSU's as it doesn't throw the ball nearly as much. The Aggies lead the SEC in yards per carry (5.4) and average the second-most rushing yards per game (218). LSU allows 3.7 yards per carry, the conference's fifth-worst mark.

Trends/Insights

• Despite its 6-1 record, Texas A&M is 2-5 ATS. LSU is 3-4 ATS.
• LSU has -115 odds (53% implied probability) of making the College Football Playoff, while Texas A&M is +105 (48% implied probability).
• Almost 60% of bets are on LSU's spread, but 68% of the handle is on Texas A&M's spread.

Best bet - Texas A&M

Texas A&M hasn't played any upper-echelon SEC competition, but it handled business against Missouri and Arkansas. LSU has escaped games it could have - maybe should have - lost. Its luck will run out on the road when Texas A&M controls the line of scrimmage and runs rampant.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.