CFB Week 10 betting preview: Ohio State, Penn State in high-stakes showdown

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

Only a few weeks remain in this chaotic and dramatic college football season. The expanded College Football Playoff has created more intrigue for teams beyond the top four. Conference races are heating up, and more teams will be eliminated from playoff contention in the coming weeks. Let's dive into some critical Week 10 matchups.

No. 4 Ohio State @ No. 3 Penn State (+3.5, O/U 45.5)

James Franklin has only defeated Ohio State once since he was hired in 2014. Although a loss wouldn't disqualify Penn State from the College Football Playoff, a win would be program-defining. Ryan Day also faces immense pressure, as an Ohio State loss would hurt its playoff chances.

Case for Ohio State

• Ohio State has had a rocky couple of weeks, losing to Oregon and surviving a scare against Nebraska.
• The Buckeyes average the second-most points (43.5), second-most total yards (503), and second-most rushing yards (208) in the Big Ten. They own a balanced, explosive offense that decimates opponents on the ground.
• Their defense is just as impressive, allowing the conference's fewest points per game (11) and fewest yards per game (254).
• Penn State's resume is nothing to scoff at, but it hasn't played any playoff contenders. It had a weak nonconference schedule, let Illinois hang around for four quarters, and needed overtime to escape USC. The talent discrepancy between Ohio State's expensive roster and other competition Penn State has faced will be evident in Happy Valley.

Case for Penn State

• This is Penn State's first 7-0 start since 2019.
• Penn State's chances hinge on the availability of quarterback Drew Allar, who left last week's game with a left leg injury. He's a game-time decision for Saturday's matchup, but Ohio State will have an advantage if his mobility is limited.
• In Allar's absence, backup Beau Pribula, who looked poised in relief of Allar last week, would start. Allar stumbled in big moments against elite competition last season but has passed every test this season.
• Penn State's defense is capable of limiting Ohio State's offense. The Nittany Lions allow the Big Ten's third-fewest points per game (14.5).

Trends/Insights

• Franklin is 56-16 against Big Ten competition outside of Ohio State and Michigan, but he has a combined 4-16 mark against those two programs.
• Franklin is 13-26 against ranked teams and 3-17 against top-10 teams.
• Penn State has only been a home underdog four times over the last five years. It went 1-3 ATS in those games.
• Franklin is 1-9 straight up against Ohio State but 7-3 ATS.
• Penn State hasn't covered its last six games as an underdog of seven or fewer points.
• Ohio State is 12-9-2 ATS as a road favorite under Day.
• The majority of bets and money are on Penn State to cover as a home underdog.
• Over 90% of the handle is on the under, which opened at 47.5 and dropped to 45.5.

Best bet - Ohio State -3.5

The line indicates Allar will likely play, but how close will he be to 100%? Even if he's fully healthy, Penn State's offense has its hands full against a daunting Ohio State defense. Although Happy Valley will have an incredible atmosphere Saturday afternoon, it's impossible to trust Franklin in a big spot, especially when this game is more important to Ohio State's playoff chances.

No. 1 Oregon @ Michigan (+14.5, O/U 45.5)

Michigan is already eliminated from the College Football Playoff as it rebuilds in the post-Jim Harbaugh era. The Wolverines will still try to play spoiler against new Big Ten foe Oregon, which has earned its spot as the nation's No. 1 team.

Case for Oregon

• Oregon is 8-0 with a win over Ohio State and a resounding victory against Illinois.
• Dillon Gabriel leads the Ducks' prolific offensive attack, ranking third in the Big Ten in points per game (34.5), second in passing yards (305), and fourth in total yards (467).
• Michigan's strength is stopping the run, and it won't have an answer for Oregon's passing attack. Plus, the Wolverines' inept offense will lead to Oregon dominating the time of possession and wearing out Michigan's defense.

Case for Michigan

• Michigan is playing musical chairs with quarterbacks, but they all refuse to grab the seat when the music stops. Davis Warren started the season under center before he was benched for Alex Orji. Orji was then benched for Jack Tuttle, who announced his retirement from football this week due to concussion issues.
• Did you follow all that? Now, Michigan is returning to Warren as its starter against Oregon. Frankly, the Wolverines don't have a competent quarterback on their roster.
• Oregon's defense is good enough to load the box and stop Michigan's running game.
• On the other side, Michigan primarily runs the football, and Oregon has a poor run defense.

Trends/Insights

• Michigan is 2-6 ATS and 0-5 against teams above .500.
• Oregon is 9-2 ATS as a road favorite under Dan Lanning.
• Four of Oregon's five Big Ten games have gone under the total.
• This is one of the more lopsided matchups of the weekend, as 78% of bets and 88% of the handle are on Oregon to cover a two-touchdown spread.

Best bet - Oregon -14.5

Despite its winning record, Michigan has a negative point differential. I'm rolling with the public, backing Oregon to coast to an easy road win.

No. 10 Texas A&M @ South Carolina (+2.5, O/U 44.5)

Texas A&M is the only undefeated SEC team, suffering one nonconference loss but 5-0 in conference play. A win over South Carolina would put the Aggies in prime position to earn a trip to the SEC championship and likely the College Football Playoff. But the Gamecocks have competed against the SEC's top teams all season.

Case for Texas A&M

• Texas A&M's midseason quarterback battle between Conner Weigman and Marcel Reed has created an under-the-radar storyline amid a successful season. Coach Mike Elko won't announce a starter until game day.
• The Aggies' offense is successful when it runs the ball effectively. They have the SEC's second-best rushing attack (221 yards per game) and the third-worst passing attack (179 yards per game). That offensive imbalance could hurt them against a team that prides itself on stopping the run.

Case for South Carolina

• South Carolina is better than its 4-3 record indicates, with dominant wins over Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Oklahoma. It lost close games to LSU and Alabama, which could have gone either way.
• The Gamecocks have specimens on the edge of their defensive line, which makes it difficult for offenses to run against them. They allow the SEC's third-fewest rushing yards per game (102) and fourth-fewest total yards per game (298).
• Texas A&M's strength is running the ball, so South Carolina will have the advantage if it can eliminate the Aggies' run game.

Trends/Insights

• South Carolina is 5-2 ATS and 3-1 as an underdog.
• The Gamecocks are 5-6 ATS as a home underdog under Shane Beamer.
• Texas A&M is 3-5 ATS.
• Bettors are high on Texas A&M after last week's impressive showing, as 72% of bets and 69% of the handle are on the Aggies to cover.

Best bet - South Carolina +2.5

This is a letdown spot for Texas A&M after its best win of the season over LSU last weekend. Plus, traveling to Columbia is never easy for SEC foes. South Carolina's terrifying defensive front will eliminate the Aggies' rushing attack and make it difficult for them to move the ball.

No. 18 Pittsburgh @ No. 20 SMU (-7.5, O/U 58.5)

Pittsburgh and SMU are surprisingly undefeated in the ACC and dark-horse contenders - behind Clemson and Miami - to win the conference and sneak into the playoff.

Case for Pittsburgh

• Pitt is 7-0 but has benefitted from a weak ACC schedule.
• Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein left last week's game with an injury but is cleared to play against SMU.
• The Panthers average the ACC's third-most points per game (40.9) behind Miami and Clemson.
• SMU's rushing attack leads the conference, but Pitt allows the second-fewest rushing yards per game.

Case for SMU

• SMU's lone loss was to BYU in Week 3. Since then, it's rattled off five straight wins.
• The Mustangs allow the ACC's fourth-fewest points per game and the fewest rushing yards per game.
• Pitt has faced some atrocious defenses and only scored 17 points against Cal's respectable defense.
• SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings is listed as questionable but is expected to play.

Trends/Insights

• Pitt is 6-1 ATS, while SMU is 5-3.
• SMU is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.
• Four of SMU's last five games have gone over the total.
• Pitt is 2-0 ATS on the road.
• The Panthers haven't covered as a road underdog in their last six tries.
• Over 80% of bets and the handle are on Pitt to stay within the number.
• Over 90% of the money is on the under, which opened at 60.5 and dropped to 58.5.

Best bet - SMU -7.5

SMU will win this game between the tackles with the ACC's best rushing offense and defense. Pitt has had a remarkable season after being projected to finish toward the bottom of the ACC standings, but it hasn't faced any decent competition. The Panthers will struggle against a legitimate opponent and a formidable defense.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.