College Football Playoff picture: 1st-round spreads, championship odds
The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff is set, and the committee's selection didn't come without controversy.
SMU earned the final at-large bid over Alabama, leaving a sour taste in SEC fans' mouths as the sport's most dominant conference only has three teams in the dance while the Big Ten has four and the ACC has two. Here's a look at each team's odds of winning the national title:
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Oregon | +350 |
| Georgia | +350 |
| Texas | +350 |
| Ohio State | +475 |
| Penn State | +650 |
| Notre Dame | +1200 |
| Tennessee | +2500 |
| Indiana | +4000 |
| Arizona State | +5000 |
| Clemson | +5000 |
| SMU | +5000 |
| Boise State | +6000 |
Oregon has attracted the most national title tickets over the last two weeks at theScore Bet and ESPN Bet, but most of the money wagered is on Ohio State.
Oregon, Georgia, Boise State, and Arizona State earned the top four seeds and first-round byes as the highest-ranked conference champions. The bracket is as follows:
THE FIRST-EVER 12-TEAM CFP BRACKET IS SET 🔥 pic.twitter.com/LPwpoxdzLM
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 8, 2024
Gifting the top seeds to teams ranked well below the top four has created a wonky bracket that advantages some teams and disadvantages others. Penn State and Texas are -185 and -210, respectively, to make the semifinal as both teams avoid Big Ten and SEC opponents on their path to the final four. Oregon is the top seed but has worse odds (-145) of reaching the semifinal because it will play a powerhouse program in Ohio State or Tennessee in the quarterfinals. That seems backward.
ESPN Bet and theScore Bet offer a market to bet on the conference of the championship winner. The Big Ten is favored at even money because it has the most teams, while the SEC is +130. Everyone else is a long shot. Before considering the championship, we broke down the opening odds of each first-round matchup.
No. 10 Indiana @ No. 7 Notre Dame (-7.5, O/U 50.5)
Both teams are 11-1, but Notre Dame has more impressive wins despite being an independent school. Indiana had the easiest strength of schedule among all at-large teams in the playoff.
This line opened at 8.5, but bettors wagered on Indiana, lowering it to 7.5. The total also dropped two points. Remember, all first-round matchups are at the higher seed's stadium, so this will be played in South Bend, Indiana. The Fighting Irish have won 10 straight and have covered seven in a row.
No. 11 SMU @ No. 6 Penn State (-9, O/U 53.5)
SMU snagged the final spot in the playoff over a plethora of SEC schools who believed they were more deserving. The Mustangs' thrilling ACC championship loss to Clemson didn't hurt their position with the committee. SMU has benefitted from a remarkably easy schedule but will have its hands full in Happy Valley.
Penn State lost another big game in the Big Ten championship. While James Franklin continues to prove he can't defeat elite competition, SMU is anything but that. The Nittany Lions have dominated lesser opponents all season, and this line indicates they'll easily advance to the quarterfinals.
No. 12 Clemson @ No. 5 Texas (-11, O/U 54.5)
Clemson is the only playoff team ranked outside the top 12, but it earned an automatic bid by winning the ACC. The four highest-ranked conference champs earned a first-round bye, but Clemson was the fifth-highest-ranked champ. The Tigers have looked shaky and inconsistent but won a weak conference.
Texas is a different beast than any ACC opponent. The Longhorns didn't have a demanding schedule, but their only two losses were to Georgia. The talent disparity between Texas and Clemson will be obvious in this matchup and is properly reflected in the spread.
The line opened at 10.5, but bettors pounced on Texas, bumping it to 11. The total opened at 54.5 but has lowered three points in 24 hours.
No. 9 Tennessee @ No. 8 Ohio State (-7.5, O/U 47.5)
No coach faces more pressure this playoff than Ryan Day after Ohio State's embarrassing home loss to rival Michigan as 20.5-point favorites. Day's time in Columbus will end if the Buckeyes don't get past the first round - and potentially further.
Luckily, Ohio State is at home and a big favorite over Tennessee. The Volunteers' biggest win this season was over Alabama, but they also lost to Georgia and Arkansas.
Tennessee is one of three teams in the playoff with both a top-10 scoring offense and defense (Indiana and Notre Dame are the others). Ohio State and Tennessee each have top-five scoring defenses, which explains why this is the lowest total among all playoff games.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.