College Football Playoff 1st-round bets: Alabama flips to favorite over Oklahoma
If it feels like it's been weeks since the conference championships, you're not alone. The Lane Kiffin and Sherrone Moore coaching stories have dominated the recent college football conversation. However, it's finally time for meaningful games as the 12-team College Football Playoff kicks off Friday night.
Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia, and Texas Tech earned automatic byes to the quarterfinals as the four highest seeds. The remaining eight squads have to battle it out to get there. Let's dive into our preview and picks for the four games this weekend.
π Full College Football Playoff odds can be found on theScore Bet here
Friday, Dec. 19
Game time: 8 p.m. ET
π Pick: Alabama (-1.5)
When these teams met in November, Oklahoma defeated Alabama 23-21. Despite the loss, Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson threw for 326 yards. However, the Crimson Tide's offense has regressed, losing two of its last four games and limping into the College Football Playoff. I'm hoping a layoff with extra practices can help re-establish its rhythm.
Simpson's had an up-and-down season, but the Crimson Tide still own a top-25 passing attack. While Oklahoma has a ferocious defense, particularly on the line of scrimmage, it's struggled against high-octane passing teams, including Ole Miss and Tennessee. Alabama's offense had success against Oklahoma in the first matchup, but turnovers - an interception and two fumbles - derailed its drives. I don't expect the Crimson Tide's offense to turn the ball over three times again. Meanwhile, the Sooners have the SEC's fifth-worst scoring offense. If Alabama can reach 24 points, Oklahoma won't keep pace.
It's also noteworthy that Oklahoma opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but the line flipped in Alabama's favor, indicating the money is on the Tide.
Saturday, Dec. 20
Game time: 12 p.m.
π Pick: Miami (+3.5)
Texas A&M's offensive and defensive coordinators accepted jobs elsewhere but will remain on staff to coach the playoffs. Will they be completely focused on preparing for Miami while recruiting players for their new programs? That could be an advantage for the Hurricanes.
Miami is loaded with future NFL players on both sides of the ball. The key matchup is Miami's incredible offensive line against Texas A&M's lethal pass rush. When Carson Beck is delivering passes in a clean pocket and can find a rhythm, he looks like a first-rounder. When he's off-platform in a wonky pocket, he's prone to turnovers and doesn't even look like an FBS starter. I trust the Hurricanes' line to hold up and provide Beck enough time to deliver the ball to Malachi Toney, one of the nation's most explosive playmakers.
Miami has two brutal losses, but its talent is undeniable. Despite playing in the SEC, Texas A&M had a particularly favorable schedule and then looked putrid in its season finale against Texas. The Aggies are slightly overrated, so let's back Miami to at least keep it within a field goal.
Game time: 3:30 p.m.
π Pick: Ole Miss (-17.5)
We've already seen how this plays out. When Ole Miss and Tulane met Sept. 20, the Rebels dominated the Green Wave in a 45-10 win. The talent and athleticism discrepancy was evident from the opening kickoff. Tulane allowed 548 yards, including 307 passing yards and 112 rushing yards to quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. Ole Miss' defense has been inconsistent, but it held Tulane's offense to 104 passing yards.
The argument against Ole Miss is that it's without head coach Lane Kiffin, who controversially left for the same role at LSU. But the rest of the program's offensive and defensive staff will coach in the playoffs, and they've had weeks to prepare for Kiffin's absence. Tulane's coach also left for a better job when he accepted the Florida opening. The difference is Jon Sumrall will coach the Green Wave in the playoff while also recruiting for Florida and assembling his staff in Gainesville.
No matter what Sumrall says, it's impossible to fully focus on the upcoming playoff game while balancing both gigs. That puts Tulane, which is already the significantly worse team, at an even greater disadvantage.
Game time: 7:30 p.m.
π Pick: Oregon (-21.5)
This is the largest spread in the two-year history of the 12-team playoff, and it might not be large enough. James Madison is a great story, but it doesn't belong on this stage. Although the Dukes finished the year 12-1, their lone loss was to the only major conference opponent they faced - and Louisville, which finished 4-4 in the ACC, defeated them by two touchdowns.
The talent gap between power conference teams and the rest of the sport is as wide as it's ever been, since a program like Oregon can dish out more money to its backups than a school like James Madison can offer its stars.
Oregon's only loss was to No. 1 Indiana. The Ducks handled business otherwise, including dominating lower-level opponents. They went 8-4 against the spread this season. Furthermore, favorites of more than a touchdown went 4-1 against the spread in last year's inaugural 12-team playoff. Don't fall for the underdog trap when one team is significantly better, incredibly well-coached, and has ample time to prepare.
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